Maple Leafs UFA targets: The 10 best fits at forward

We could have gone 25 deep with forwards who would fit well with the 2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs.

The free agent class this summer may be short on star power (as always). However, there are still a lot of useful players to be had. We wanted to narrow things down to 10, but could have swapped in any one of Matt Duchene, Jake DeBrusk, Sam Reinhart, Jake Guentzel, Anthony Duclair, Teuvo Teravainen, Michael Amadio, Joe Pavelski, Jonathan Marchessault, Teddy Blueger, William Carrier, Sean Monahan, Nick Cousins, Yakov Trenin, Jordan Martinook, Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, or Connor Brown.

Florida Panthers pest Ryan Lomberg would bring some energy and personality to the Leafs fourth line.

The Leafs’ biggest need up front is, arguably, a middle-six centre. They could also stand to bring in another top-six winger to replace or supplement Bertuzzi and/or Domi, both pending free agents, as well as more middle-six support on the wing, whether it’s more size to fit the style of new head coach Craig Berube or more scoring to help the stars up top.

A lot of what the Leafs might do in free agency will depend on what path is taken with Mitch Marner and John Tavares, the stars with no-movement clauses who may or may not be around next season.

Without further adieu, the top 10.

10. David Perron

Position: Left and right wing
Evolving Hockey contract projection: One year, $2.4 million cap hit

This spot originally belonged to DeBrusk, who’s much younger than David Perron, with a lot more upside. In the end, the Berube-Perron connection was just too strong to ignore. Perron played his best hockey in the NHL under Berube in St. Louis, including 16 points during St. Louis’ Cup run in 2019. In the two postseasons that followed, Perron put up 13 goals and 21 points in 22 games. He was particularly effective on the power play for those Berube teams and would figure to play a central role there with the Leafs.

“He’s a helluva hockey player, for sure,” Berube said of Perron at one point during their time together in St. Louis. “(He) can run a power play as good as anybody I’ve ever coached.”

Berube went on to describe Perron as a “right arm extension for the coaches” for his leadership abilities. Perron just turned 36 and has played over 1,100 NHL games, so there is some age-related risk here. He did post 17 goals and 47 points for the Red Wings last season though. He might still have something left in the tank.

9. Danton Heinen

Position: Left and right wing
Evolving Hockey contract projection: Four years, $3.6 million cap hit

Danton Heinen didn’t get a contract until the end of October last season after starting with a PTO in Boston. The Bruins got him for one year at only $775,000. And he proved to be a bargain, scoring 17 goals in the regular season while riding shotgun to David Pastrnak. Heinen has the kind of blue collar game that seems embedded in the fabric of the Bruins, the team that picked him in the fourth round of the 2014 draft. The Leafs could use more of that, especially with a coach like Berube. It’s easy to see the 28-year-old bringing some jam and worker-bee qualities to the Leafs’ first or second line. He could also slot in nicely on a third unit that’s built for defence. Heinen can really play anywhere, and on either wing. He’s 6-foot-2 and almost 200 pounds. He’s a strong penalty killer who figures to be among Berube’s top choices to defend a late lead (just like he was for Jim Montgomery in Boston) and he should chip in with anywhere from 10-20 goals. His per-game production last season (0.49) was almost equal to Bertuzzi (0.54). His price-tag will be a lot less.

8. Steven Stamkos

Position: Centre and left wing
Evolving Hockey contract projection: Three years, $8.4 million cap hit

There are two big questions with Steven Stamkos:

1. Will he actually leave Tampa? Or rather, will Tampa actually let him leave?

2. If he does leave, what kind of deal will he seek as a free agent? How long and how pricey?

If the Lightning do let him walk, and the contract demands aren’t exorbitant, the Leafs have to at least inquire about Stamkos’ interest in coming home. No, the fit isn’t perfect. Stamkos is 34 now and might be better suited for a permanent relocation to the wing. The Leafs already have a guy with similar qualities in Tavares. Add Stamkos and where exactly would he fit in the lineup? His skillset doesn’t seem like an ideal match for left-wing duty with Auston Matthews, nor is it easy to imagine him pairing especially well with Tavares, whether it’s on the wing or at centre. The Leafs could simply roll with a 1-2-3 of Matthews, Stamkos, and Tavares down the middle, though two aging centres in key roles is a dicey proposition. And yet, if Stamkos wants to try to bring a Stanley Cup home to Toronto, and, crucially, is willing to take less to do so, the Leafs can find a way to make it work. One concept they could re-explore now that Sheldon Keefe is gone: Play William Nylander at centre and play him, perhaps, with Stamkos. The addition of Stamkos’ one-timer would be hugely helpful to a power play that’s slumped again and again when it matters. Stick Stamkos on the left flank and Matthews on the right flank and PP1 for the Leafs would become a lot harder to stop.

It can be easy to overrate playoff pedigree but it’s hard to deny that there isn’t something there in Stamkos’s case: 50 goals and 101 points in 128 games on the way to two Cups. Tampa went down in the first round last spring, but Stamkos still scored five times in five games after a 40-goal regular season. Difference-makers are hard to find. Stamkos still looks to be one. Of course, players his age can fall off a cliff quickly. That’s why the term on a Stamkos deal would have to be minimal, along with a price-tag that’s below market value.

7. Adam Henrique

Position: Centre and left wing
Evolving Hockey contract projection: Three years, $4.7 million cap hit

Adam Henrique is appealing as a short-term fix, someone likely to come at a lesser cost and commitment than some of the other centres available. A 1-2-year deal seems more likely for a 34-year-old than the one you see above. What’s to like about Henrique? He can do a little bit of everything. Need him to be a top-six centre? He did that as recently as last season for the Ducks. Need him to move over to the wing? He can do that too. He’s got the smarts, defensive ability, and faceoff chops to be a 3C, the role the Oilers pegged him for after a midseason trade from Anaheim. If the Leafs were to move Nylander to the middle, and play him with Tavares, Henrique would slot in nicely as the 3C. Henrique has been good for in and around 20 goals every year for basically a decade. He’ll kill penalties too, and went all the way to the Stanley Cup Final way back when as a member of the New Jersey Devils. In short, versatility and experience.

Adam Henrique would give the Leafs a boost at centre. (Perry Nelson / USA Today)

6. Viktor Arvidsson

Position: Left and right wing
Evolving Hockey contract projection: One year, $3 million

The case for Viktor Arvidsson is pretty simple: There’s a strong chance he outplays his contract. That’s presuming that Arvidsson’s stock takes a hit after an injury-plagued season in which he played only 18 games. It’s possible he has to take less on a short-term deal to rebuild his value. If so, the Leafs should be near the front of the line. Arvidsson doesn’t feel like a Berube-type player. He’s not big or heavy. What he is quick and he can score and deliver a punch offensively. Those are elements the Leafs can use somewhere in their top nine, whether it’s on a speedy third unit with fellow Swedish speedster Calle Järnkrok or on a top-six group with Nylander. Arvidsson had his second back surgery in less than 18 months last October, which is worrisome for a 31-year-old. But if the price is right, Arvidsson is worth the bet. The upside is 30ish goals and 60ish points. (In the two seasons his surgery, Arvidsson averaged 23 goals and 54 points.) The Leafs didn’t get enough players outperforming their contracts last offseason.

5. Alex Wennberg

Position: Centre
Evolving Hockey contract projection: Three years, $4.4 million cap hit

Alex Wennberg scored the biggest goal of his NHL career last week when he tipped home the overtime winner in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference final for New York. But that’s not really what the Leafs would be counting on were they to acquire him in free agency. The offence has never developed in a meaningful way. Wennberg has cracked 50 points only once. But he is a smart, safe, moderately skilled centre who can be the anchor of a responsible third line that can handle tough matchups and onerous deployment. That’s how the Rangers have used Wennberg in the playoffs. Wennberg is boring, but safe. Safe can be good, especially in the playoffs. Wennberg would give the Leafs a needed boost on the penalty kill and he isn’t a total black hole on offence, more like someone who will kick in 10-15 goals and 30-40 points. His ceiling isn’t as high as most of the other centres who cracked our top 10 as a result, but he shouldn’t be as costly either. Wennberg turns 30 in September.

4. Chandler Stephenson

Position: Centre
Evolving Hockey contract projection: Four years, $6.1 million cap hit

There’s some risk here: Chandler Stephenson is coming off a rough season, his worst in Vegas, he just turned 30, and he wasn’t nearly as effective during his life with the Golden Knights when he played without Mark Stone (and Stone happened to miss a large chunk of time this past season). Vegas didn’t have a great penalty kill either with Stephenson playing a central role. So no-go right? Not necessarily. Perhaps the down year will lower Stephenson’s stock in free agency. Maybe that means fewer years and fewer dollars – a lot less than the projection above. A deal like that could deliver some value — if Stephenson returns to the form of his earlier seasons in Vegas. Stephenson eclipsed 60 points in back-to-back seasons in the two seasons before last, leading Vegas in assists both times. Stephenson also delivered 20 points in 22 games during the Knights’ Cup run. He’d bring more offence and more playmaking to the table than someone like Wennberg. That, along with some speed and tenaciousness.  The Leafs could plug him in as the 2C and pair him with Tavares and/or Nylander (or even Marner if he sticks around). The bet: That Stephenson bounces back and delivers real two-way value.

3. Dakota Joshua

Position: Left wing
Evolving Hockey contract projection: Two years, $2 million cap hit

This would be a pretty cool story as Dakota Joshua was drafted by the Leafs in the fifth round of the 2014 draft, but never played in Toronto. He became an NHLer with the Blues where he played for…Berube. It was only in Vancouver the past couple seasons that Joshua really blossomed as his role and opportunity expanded. What’s to like? For one thing, he’s big – 6-foot-3, 206 pounds – who plays like it; Joshua threw 245 hits for the Canucks last season, seventh-most among all NHL forwards. He’s a good fit for the “heavy” hockey preferred by the new Leafs coach. Joshua played a substantial role for the Canucks penalty kill and would do the same for the Leafs. He’d bring a dose of secondary scoring from a likely gig on the third line. Playing beside Conor Garland and Blueger on what was perhaps Vancouver’s most effective line last season, Joshua pumped in a career-best 18 goals in only 63 games. He added four more goals (and four assists) in the playoffs. He just turned 28 and has played fewer than 200 NHL games. The arrow is still pointing upward. All reasons why the Canucks may do all they can to keep him (and why that contract projection is far too low).

2. Tyler Toffoli

Position: Left and right wing
Evolving Hockey contract projection: Three years, $6.1 million cap hit

Here’s one thing you should know about Tyler Toffoli: Brad Treliving is a longtime fan. Treliving’s biggest in-season trade as an NHL GM came in Feb. 2022 when he acquired Toffoli from Montreal.

“I’ve been chasing Tyler Toffoli since my days in Phoenix and his draft year,” Treliving said in the aftermath of that deal. “You look at the data on him, when you dig into it, the ability to drive play, shot generation and shot suppression is strong.”

Toffoli brings the same grimy elements as Bertuzzi, but he’s a better player, a much more reliable scorer who would offer the Leafs a more legitimate source of offence behind the stars. Toffoli potted more than 30 goals in each of the past two seasons. His 139 goals over the last five seasons are tied for 31st in the NHL, even with Brad Marchand and two more than Tavares. Toffoli hasn’t produced quite as much in the playoffs — 20 goals in 93 games — but he’s been to two Stanley Cup Finals, winning one with the Kings in 2014. Toffoli just turned 32. He’s three years older than Bertuzzi. Unlike Bertuzzi, Toffoli hasn’t missed much time to injuries. He isn’t the centre the Leafs need, but he is a legitimate top-six winger who would fit with either Matthews or, if he sticks around and remains at centre, Tavares. Toffoli spent most of last season in New Jersey playing alongside Jack Hughes. He also happens to hail from Scarborough.

1. Elias Lindholm

Position: Centre and right wing
Evolving Hockey contract projection: Seven years, $7.9 million

A seven-year deal like the one above feels excessive for a 29-year-old coming off a 44-point season. Top-six centres are also a commodity so maybe not. If that’s what it takes to get Elias Lindholm, the Leafs should pass and pursue Wennberg, Henrique, Stephenson, or maybe even Sean Monahan. If, on the other hand, the Leafs can get Lindholm for less (fewer years and dollars), they have to consider it. Treliving knows Lindholm’s talents as well as anyone: He shrewdly brought him to Calgary in the Dougie Hamilton blockbuster and saw Lindholm become a foundational piece for the Flames, a player with defensive chops who also happened to top out at 42 goals and 82 points. Lindholm would slot in perfectly as the Leafs No. 2 centre, allowing Tavares a move to the wing or to a gig as the 3C. He’s someone the Leafs could count on to play up against the league’s elite predators and still produce some offence. Lindholm had an offensive zone faceoff percentage of 33 percent in the playoffs; the Canucks still won over 60 percent of the goals and almost 50 percent of the expected goals. Lindholm produced 10 points in 13 games. He would be an instant upgrade to a penalty kill that struggled mightily last season and he’s excellent in the faceoff circle as a right-handed option the Leafs currently lack. Does he want to play in Toronto?

(Top photo of Mathew Knies and Steven Stamkos: Kevin Sousa / NHLI via Getty Images)

Stats and research courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, Cap Friendly, and Puck Pedia