MAPLE LEAFS: Considering Brad Treliving’s cap potential

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Let’s assume Mitch Marner remains a Maple Leaf through the summer and into next season.

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Since the Leafs’ exit meetings a month ago, when Marner stressed that he wanted to remain with the club for the long term, speculation regarding the star winger’s future has gone into and remained in overdrive. 

Yet through all the white noise and talk of potential destinations if Marner were to waive his no-move clause, there has been no indication publicly from Marner that he has changed his mind. And from behind closed doors, there has been no indication that Marner is preparing a list of teams to which he would agree to be traded.

The latest speculation has the Vegas Golden Knights circling the Marner wagon, perhaps with defenceman Shea Theodore and goalie Logan Thompson coming to Toronto in a potential trade. Again, until Marner decides he wants to leave and waives his no-move, he and his $10.9-million US cap hit for 2024-25 won’t be going anywhere.

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If you’re in the camp that is tired of Marner and wants to see him gone, suck it up. He signed his contract in good faith and wasn’t expecting there to be an asterisk beside his no-move at some point. You can use the same description of the scenario involving captain John Tavares and his $11-million cap hit. 

An inclusion of Marner on the roster next season — like we say, he is not obligated to waive anything — would leave general manager Brad Treliving with close to $20 million to spend under the $88-million salary cap. 

It’s not a lot of money, certainly not if Treliving is serious about making what would amount to a significant upgrade to his defence corps. 

The Leafs have 10 forwards — Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Marner, Tavares, David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Reaves, Bobby McMann, Matthew Knies and Pontus Holmberg — under contract for ’24-’25. Connor Dewar, Noah Gregor and Nick Robertson are restricted free agents. 

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Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi are the unrestricted wildcards, and though both want to re-sign in Toronto, you think they would be curious, especially Bertuzzi, to see what they could garner on the open market. Treliving can’t afford to overpay either. Bertuzzi made $5.5 million last season. Domi made $3 million. Neither did anything in Toronto that should result in a large raise, so Treliving would have to be prudent if he re-signs either. 

On the blue line, the under-contract locks are Morgan Rielly, Jake McCabe and Simon Benoit. Though Conor Timmins and Cade Webber are signed, neither is a guarantee (nor should be) to play a large role. 

It’s on defence and in goal that Treliving will have to use his available dollars wisely.

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Three defencemen headed for free agency that the Leafs have been linked to — Brandon Montour, Brett Pesce and Nikita Zadorov — are going to come in north of $5 million a season. Chris Tanev likely will be in the same area. Bidding wars could drive up the price on all. 

In goal, the Leafs would be sitting pretty if they were quite sure that Joseph Woll could remain in good health. When Woll plays, he demonstrates he can be a true No. 1. It just hasn’t happened enough because of his history of injuries. Laurent Brossoit, one possibility for the Leafs in free agency, made $1.75 million last season with the Winnipeg Jets and will be in line for a nice raise. The 31-year-old was sharp, but played in just 23 games and has just 140 on his NHL resume. If the Leafs do sign Brossoit, Treliving can’t stop there. Another veteran NHL goalie with experience, relatively on the cheap, would have to be acquired for insurance reasons.

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If the Leafs get netminder Jacob Markstrom and his $6-million cap hit in a trade with the Calgary Flames, Treliving would have to send some money out.

All of this changes if Marner decides he’s done and wants out. In that case, some of his cap hit would be eaten up by the player(s) the Leafs get in return. 

For now, there has been little sense it will unfold that way.

LOOSE LEAFS

The departure of Laurence Gilman from the Leafs organization was agreed upon by both sides prior to this past season. Gilman had one season left on his contract and honoured that in his role as governor and senior vice-president of the Toronto Marlies. His leaving shouldn’t come as a surprise. Gilman, who was hired to be an assistant GM with the Leafs in 2018, hadn’t been part of the front-office inner circle for a while … Woll took to Instagram this week to send a message to Leafs Nation. “A big thanks to all the @mapleleafs fans out there for your support this season! … already looking forward to next year,” Woll said in the post, which included several photos from 2023-24 … The American Hockey League on Thursday named its top prospects team for the 2023-24 season and for those who have kept an eye on the Leafs’ pool of youngsters, it wasn’t exactly a revelation that the Marlies were not represented. Outside of forwards Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten, the Leafs don’t have a wave of prospects on the way to potentially making a significant impact in the NHL. The AHL top prospects team included goalie Yaroslav Askarov (Milwaukee/Nashville), defencemen Brandt Clarke (Ontario/Los Angeles) and Simon Edvinsson (Grand Rapids/Detroit) and forwards Jiri Kulich (Rochester/Buffalo), Logan Stankoven (Texas/Dallas) and Shane Wright (Coachella Valley/Seattle).

tkoshan@postmedia.com

X: @koshtorontosun

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