Mailbag: Dark Horses to Make a Super Bowl Run

One last round of questions before vacation! Here’s what we’ve got …

From Brad Lenser (@cubbyfan4ever): What team(s) do you think is a dark horse for a Super Bowl run?

In the AFC, the Houston Texans can’t be considered a dark horse since they won their division a year ago. I don’t think the Los Angeles Chargers can be either, because Jim Harbaugh’s presence makes them less of an underdog. I thought about the New York Jets, but they’re not really one either, not with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

So with all that established, I think I’d go with the Colts. They went 9–8 last year, in Year 1 under Shane Steichen, and with Gardner Minshew II at quarterback. The staff returns largely intact, and Anthony Richardson is back from injury. And we’ve seen quarterbacks in this sort of spot explode in their second year.

In the NFC, I think I’d give you the New York Giants, if you want a true dark horse. They need development from 2022 first-rounder Kayvon Thibodeaux. They need to figure it out at quarterback, whether it’s Daniel Jones or, if things break wrong for him, Drew Lock. But their rookie class looked dynamite in the spring, I think Brian Burns might be the best acquisition of the offseason, and they were really good two years ago.

(Reminder: These are my dark horses, not my picks.)

From Bradley Shebib (@bshebib39): If you were in Brad Holmes’s ear, what’s one current vet FA you’d tell him to sign to push all in?

Bradley, I went scratching and clawing and looking for a hole on the Detroit Lions’ roster—any hole—to fill. They could, I suppose, add a receiver, but I don’t know that taking on one of the reclamation projects left at the position would do much for you. Offensive line depth would be good to have, maybe someone like Connor Williams, although I’m sure that doesn’t move the needle for you. Ditto for depth at defensive tackle and safety.

And that brought me to the idea of adding a pass rusher to station opposite Aidan Hutchinson. Right now, the Lions would probably start Marcus Davenport there, which isn’t a huge problem, but probably requires a little more depth.

Along those lines, adding a veteran such as Yannick Ngakoue or Emmanuel Ogbah would make some sense. It would help the Lions protect against Davenport’s extensive injury history, and also add to what the team could do on passing downs. And if things go according to plan this year, the defense will be seeing a lot of those situations.

From David Gleeson (@davidrgleeson): Explain to me why the Broncos—an eight-win team last year with an oil/water situation with the coach and QB—are supposedly a five-win team this year?

David, I think it’s just a matter of where the team is right now. Neither the offensive line nor the defensive line is great. The offense lacks any overwhelming threat on the outside (though Courtland Sutton is a good player). And the defense does have a chance to be decent, particularly on the back end, but is losing its captain in Justin Simmons.

Overall, there are just a lot of questions, before you even get to asking who’s playing QB.

If you have something you see that the Denver Broncos will be able to hang their hat on, let me know. Because right now, I’m not sure I see it.

From Jeremy Mann (@terran0860): Update about BA meeting with 49ers please. 

Jeremy, obviously things aren’t in the best place with Brandon Aiyuk right now. But I’d compare this to where the San Francisco 49ers once were at the same juncture with Deebo Samuel. At this point in the calendar, Samuel had stayed away from San Francisco’s offseason program, outside of the mandatory three-day minicamp, and was planning a hold-in from training camp until he got paid (which happened less than a week into camp).

If you remember, one of the issues Samuel’s camp raised with the Niners was his usage as a running back—the team had leaned on him late in the 2021 season at the position, and, in the passing game, worked him as a third option behind Aiyuk and George Kittle. The idea, at the time, was that Samuel viewed himself as a true No. 1 and was tired of having to carry the burden of playing running back as well.

Funny how money solved all of that. He got a blockbuster three-year extension. He averaged 3.7 carries per game in 2021. He’s averaged 4.4 carries per game over the two years since.

Point is, a lot of posturing goes on in negotiations like these. The Niners went through it that summer with Samuel, even mentioning the possibility of trading him around that April’s draft, and again last summer with Nick Bosa, so it’s not like they’re going to jam on the panic button. The best thing for a team on the cusp of the championship is to have a guy like Aiyuk, who’s more of a pure No. 1 receiver than Samuel is, on board.

I think they will get Aiyuk there over the next couple of months. Even if things seem bleak now.

From The Slant Football Podcast Show (@TheSlantFball): Is Brandon Aiyuk moving before training camp or does he stay put?

For all the reasons stated above, plus the fact that San Francisco has prioritized keeping Aiyuk all offseason, I think he’ll wind up staying put. The Niners wouldn’t be making the offers they have already put in front of him if they didn’t want him for the long haul. I think it’ll get done. It just might take some more time, and some more friction between the sides, to get there.

From Vinnie Polinsky (@vinniep24): Why aren’t the Patriots changing their horrible all-blue home uniforms?

Vinnie, great question. For one reason or another, the monochromatic look doesn’t work with the New England Patriots’ colors. No shame in it. Just go back to wearing silver pants, like you did when you were winning all those Super Bowls.

From ASB1216 (@ASB1216): With the softening of the safety market, where do you see potential fits for Jamal Adams and Justin Simmons?

ASB, I love questions like this.

I love the idea of Justin Simmons in either the Vic Fangio–style of defense he’s played in for the Broncos since 2019, or in a Seattle Seahawks–type of defense. That’s why I’d really love to see him as the center fielder in the Niners’ defense—which has historically played the Seattle three scheme, and also just brought aboard Brandon Staley (whom Simmons knows well) from the Fangio tree. Houston would be another fun fit for Simmons, for some of the same reasons.

As for Adams, at this point in his career, I think you’re really looking at him as much as a linebacker as you are a safety. Traditionally, those sorts of hybrids fit in well with the New England and Baltimore systems. The problem is the Patriots have a boatload of guys like that, and the Ravens have Kyle Hamilton in that sort of role. The Chargers, with Jesse Minter running the defense, have Derwin James. So digging through all this, I almost feel like the best play might be to return to Seattle and play under Mike Macdonald, who was raised a Raven.

From marc (@mcmarc25): Are the Steelers realistically in the Aiyuk race, and what could that do to the offense/team outlook? Especially if Justin Fields eventually wins the job …

Marc, we’ve been through this. The Pittsburgh Steelers really don’t go outside the organization to fill that position. Don Looney was the last player to be Pittsburgh’s leading receiver in any single season who wasn’t homegrown, and that was during World War II. They draft and develop, sometimes to a fault, at that spot.

I don’t know that Justin Fields winning the job would change that either.

From Ed Helinski (@MrEd315): What, if any, is the NFL’s policy on when bye weeks start and how many teams go out? Some teams have theirs in Week 5 and others in Week 13.

Ed, teams don’t like having bye weeks too early or too late. Right now, the league is in a place where no one has one in the first four weeks (the Lions, Chargers, Tennessee Titans and Philadelphia Eagles have theirs in Week 5), and no one has one in the last four weeks (the Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots and Washington Commanders get theirs in Week 14). The reason for spreading them out over the remaining 10 weeks is largely driven by television—there needs to be enough inventory to create a compelling product every week in all the different time slots.

The way it’s set up now, as I see it, works pretty well.

From Kent Schrag (@TheBlockO): Better basketball venue: St John Arena or Value City Arena?

Kent, it’s gotta be St. John.

From AMNFL_Andy (@AMNfl_Andy): Gut feeling. Do the Cowboys extend both CeeDee and Dak long term? Or is one or both gone?

Andy, I think CeeDee Lamb’s situation might have the potential to get the nastiest this summer, and I also see him as the most likely of the three (if we include Micah Parsons) to get extended first. He’s in a contract year. His market is fairly straight-forward. Regardless of what the Dallas Cowboys do at quarterback going forward, they’re going to need a guy like him on the perimeter.

The Dak Prescott situation is complicated, and I’m not as sure it’ll get settled before real games start (though history would suggest cooler heads will prevail on that one). And the Parsons negotiation, with two years left on his deal, is a real wild card for the team.

From Don Ridenour (@DonRidenour): Is CeeDee showing up for camp before he gets that extension? Summer vacation preference, beach or mountain town and why is mountain town the correct answer?

I think Prescott and Parsons will report to camp on time. I’m not as sure on Lamb.

Also, Don, when you live in New England, you’re close enough to both to have your choice. But I’ll say mountains are for skiing in the winter; summer is for the beach.

From Jimmy T (@jimmy_tomredle): If the Giants move on from Daniel Jones after this upcoming season, could you see them pursuing Dak Prescott?

Jimmy, I think the Giants are keeping their options open at quarterback past this year. Obviously, the idea of moving up to draft Drake Maye was very much on the table, and that would’ve meant moving on from Jones, probably after 2024. Jones’s money isn’t guaranteed past this year, and Drew Lock could wrest playing time away from him this year if he has any bumps coming back from ACL surgery.

Or Jones could have the kind of year he did in 2022 and buy the Giants a little more time.

Look, I’m not under any illusion that Jones is going to be New York’s quarterback five years from now. But we’ve seen him play at a pretty decent level. The team holds de facto options on him for the next two years. They aren’t cheap. But they would allow the team to maintain flexibility. So would you rather have Jones on those terms, or Prescott under an agreement that would tie you to him for the next four or five years? Especially if Jones plays well?

Bottom line, I’m not ruling anything out on this one.

From matty rollz (@Rillzzzy): Excluding the quarterbacks, who is a player on a team that they can’t afford to lose going into the season?

Matty, give me Trent Williams for the Niners. Yes, he’s been banged up. But the prospect of losing him for an extended period of time wouldn’t just create a hole at a position that’s tough to replace, it could have a ripple effect across that line. And I might put Tyreek Hill with the Miami Dolphins next, just because he changes the dynamic completely for every defense he faces.

From Garrett Ferguson (@GarrettSprints): What’s the maximum number of overseas games you think the NFL would get to? Seems like they’re adding more every year, so where’s that line?

Garrett, I think the number would probably be around eight. It’s been at five the past three years, with three every year in London, games in Germany and Mexico in 2022, two in Germany last season, and dates set in Germany and Brazil for this year.

Doing more than that would be easier, of course, if the league had more inventory. Which is another reason it’s trying to go to 18 games.