Looking at Georgia Tech Football’s 2024 Schedule and Opponents Through ESPN’s FPI

In case you have not heard, Georgia Tech Football is going to face one of the toughest schedules in the country this upcoming season and whil this Yellow Jackets team might be much better than last year’s team, they might not have a better record due to the schedule.

This is nothing new for the program or for Yellow Jackets fans. Each year, the team has to play Georgia at the end of the year and until this season, they also had to play Clemson each year. Georgia is still on the schedule, but Clemson is off this year, but the schedule is arguably the toughest in the ACC and among the toughest in the country. Georgia Tech has to play Notre Dame, Florida State, Miami, Louisville, NC State, and Virginia Tech, among others on their 2024 slate. Each week is going to present unique challenges to Brent Key and his team.

ESPN released its initial FPI numbers for the 2024 season and Georgia Tech is starting the season 54th. ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN’s own words: “FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

So where are Georgia Tech’s opponents ranked on this initial FPI rankings release?

1. Georgia (No. 1 nationally)

2. Notre Dame (No. 7)

3. Florida State (No. 11)

4. Louisville (No. 21

5. Miami (No. 23)

6. NC State (No. 28)

7. North Carolina (42)

8. Virginia Tech (50)

9. Duke (52)

10. Syracuse (70)

11. Georgia State (89)

I think there are some arguments to be had about where certain opponents should be ranked instead, but this still shows an overall tough strength of schedule for the Yellow Jackets. Six opponents are in the top 30 and eight are in the top 50. You could argue that both Virginia Tech and Syracuse should be higher.

247Sports Analyst Brad Crawford ranked the Yellow Jackets 2024 schedule as the 6th toughest schedule in the country:

“One of only two ACC teams in our toughest schedules rankings, Georgia Tech has a difficult road ahead, especially if November when the Yellow Jackets play Miami, NC State and Georgia to end it. Brent Key must have this team ready to go every week, or else getting to bowl eligibility will be a challenge.”

Seven of Georgia Tech’s opponents appeared in the 247Sports post-spring top 25. 11 of Georgia Tech’s 12 opponents played in bowl games last season.

Most sportsbooks have the Yellow Jackets win total set at 5.5 and On3 Sports analyst Jesse Simonton thinks that 5.5 might be too high:

“The Yellow Jackets upset Miami and North Carolina last season to make the postseason for the first time since 2018, but the books see a slight regression season with maybe the most difficult schedule (non-conference included) in the ACC in 2024. 

While Georgia Tech returns quarterback Haynes King (who led the league in touchdowns and interceptions last season), 1,000-yard rusher Jamal Haynes and infused a bad defense (worst in the ACC in 2023) with 11 newcomers via the portal, it has just five true home games on the slate this fall. The Yellow Jackets open against FSU in Ireland and end the season against top-ranked Georgia in Athens. In between, they play at Syracuse, Louisville, North Carolina and Virginia Tech and draw Notre Dame, Miami and NC State at home. That’s a gauntlet by ACC standards.”

While the schedule is a gauntlet, there are not going to be many games where the Yellow Jackets are massive underdogs and Brent Key has shown the ability to be able to get his team to play at a high level to pull an upset ever since he was the interim head coach. They might be significant underdogs in games vs FSU, Notre Dame and Georgia, but the might not be a double-digit underdog in the rest of the games. Still, this team is going to have to work to make a bowl game and improve on last year’s 7-6 mark.