Lazerus: A Stanley Cup for Connor McDavid in his prime? It could be now or never

DALLAS — You’d never know it by the way they treat each other on the ice, what with the facewashes and cross-checks and endless strings of profanity, but there’s a tremendous amount of respect between most NHL players. Everyone who makes it to the NHL — and anyone who makes it this far in the Stanley Cup playoffs — knows the work that goes into that. The sacrifice and the talent, too. Ask any player about any other player, and with few (often Florida Panthers-based) exceptions, you’ll hear some variation of “He’s a good player.”

But it’s different with Connor McDavid.

Other players don’t just respect McDavid, they’re in awe of him — the things he can do, the things he’s done, the things he’s going to do. In a sport reveling in a new golden age of superstars, McDavid is a singular entity, a player capable of doing things that nobody else in the league can, things nobody else in the league ever has.

“McDavid might be the best player ever,” Stars forward Matt Duchene said, a sacrilege that’s secretly shared by just about everybody in the league.

And yet, he’d probably tell you he hasn’t accomplished anything. Because his Edmonton Oilers haven’t won anything. Which is what makes Game 6 of the Western Conference final Sunday night in Edmonton a game of almost unfathomable importance for McDavid.

The Oilers found that 60-minute game they’ve been searching for all series Friday night in Dallas, dominating defensively and on the power play and cruising to a 3-1 victory in a Game 5 that legally must be described as “pivotal.” Edmonton now leads the series 3-2 and can eliminate the Stars on Sunday night before what is sure to be a delirious home crowd at Rogers Place.

It’ll be the biggest game of McDavid’s career, to date. And it’ll be the most pressure he’s ever felt.

Because nine seasons into his NHL career, in his absolute prime, this is the closest McDavid has ever come to the Stanley Cup Final, to a championship. And if he stays in Edmonton long term, he might never get a better chance to have his name etched into the silver of the Stanley Cup. Certainly not in his prime.

That’s not to say the Oilers are going to fall off a cliff next season. Far from it. But it’s entirely conceivable that Leon Draisaitl, McDavid’s longtime running buddy and another of the world’s greatest hockey players, won’t be wearing blue and orange next spring. He’s entering the last year of his contract, and if he doesn’t sign an extension this summer, if he wants to go be the alpha of another team, the Oilers will have to make an almost impossible decision — whether to take one more run at this thing with their dynamic duo and risk losing Draisaitl for nothing in free agency, or to trade Draisaitl at the deadline, his 10-team no-movement clause all but ensuring they don’t get anything close to fair value in return.

Beyond that, if the Oilers extend Draisaitl, it’ll justifiably cost a fortune, and there’ll be at least $25 million tied up in two players. If they lose Draisaitl, who is currently comically underpaid at $8.5 million, they’ll never be able to replace him in the aggregate with $8.5 million worth of players.

Meanwhile, Edmonton has the 25th-ranked prospect pool, per The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler. And they have one pick in the first four rounds of this year’s draft, a second-rounder. Other than 22-year-old defenseman Philip Broberg, who scored Edmonton’s third goal in Game 5, help is not on the way.

So this is McDavid’s biggest and best and perhaps only opportunity to bring a Stanley Cup to Edmonton while he’s this version of himself, the most unstoppable player in the game. He’s only 27, but as the Oilers have learned in the seemingly endless climb to this point (which included an educational sweep at the hands of the superior Colorado Avalanche in the 2022 conference final), it’s incredibly difficult to build a true contender.

The 2024 Oilers are deeper than anyone gave them credit for, the way they’ve often smothered the waves of high-end Dallas forwards in this series is proof of that. But they have just seven forwards signed for next season at a whopping $39.75 million, and Darnell Nurse is taking up $9.25 million of the cap for six more seasons. And with Draisaitl potentially on the way out and McDavid due a new deal himself in two seasons ($15 million or more a year?), it’ll be as difficult as ever to ensure this team doesn’t again become too top-heavy, too thin to get back to this point.

Just last year, Jack Eichel became the first player to win the Stanley Cup with a $10 million cap hit. Previous megastars won their Cups on their entry-level deals or bridge deals, or with seven-figure cap hits. Nathan MacKinnon had a paltry $6.3 million cap hit when he won the Cup in 2022. Toronto has yet to figure out how to truly contend with a roster overloaded with eight-figure deals at the top. Chicago’s Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews won three Cups before signing their matching $10.5 million deals; they never won another playoff series together.

There are whispers among those who are around the Oilers every day that McDavid might have already peaked, and it’s plausible, if somewhat laughable. A forward’s true prime is his early-to-mid 20s in the modern NHL, and McDavid is 27. His goal total dropped from 64 to 32 this season, and he has just four goals in the playoffs. (There’s also a lot of speculation that, like so many this time of year, he’s dealing with some sort of nagging injury that’s maybe costing him half a step.)

Yet he’s still easily the best player in the world. He picked up his 25th assist of the playoffs on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ first of two power-play goals Friday night (the first two PPGs for either team in this series), leaving him just six shy of tying Wayne Gretzky’s franchise record for assists in a single postseason. If the Oilers reach the Final, McDavid is a safe bet to break that record. And there’s that whole 100-assist regular season, too. This is still a unique talent in the history of the game, still in his general prime even if he never quite tops his preposterous 2022-23 campaign. Heck, Dallas rookie Logan Stankoven said he still has to remember to snap himself out of being starstruck when he lines up for a faceoff and sees McDavid on the other side. That’s the effect McDavid has, that’s the aura that surrounds him.

He’s been that player his entire career. But this is the first time the Stanley Cup Final truly has been in reach. That’s a pressure that mere mortals have trouble quantifying. And even hockey gods can feel the weight of it. How will McDavid handle it? Probably the way he’s handled everything else — brilliantly.

And yet, he’s never been one win away from the Stanley Cup Final. This will be a lot. Even for him.

“The stakes get higher and higher,” Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch said. “There’s a lot of pressure on the players as it is right now. … I don’t think it’s time to put more pressure on players to step up and play better because they know that, they want to perform.”

McDavid always has. Probably always will. The weight of his team will be on his shoulders Sunday in Edmonton; it always is. The weight of his legacy will be there, too. That’s new.

This is McDavid’s time. He’s earned it, he deserves it, and the league will be better off for it.

But deep down, he must know, he might not get another anytime soon.

(Top photo of Connor McDavid: Glenn James / NHLI via Getty Images)