Indiana Oaks fair odds: Find value by keying the favorite

When trainer Brad Cox legs up jockey Florent Geroux in a stakes race at Horseshoe Indianapolis, it is usually with purpose.

The pair have won 10 stakes races in Indiana together from 22 starts, including 8 of 13 as the favorite, and they have a quartet of entries on Saturday, including a trio of stakes starters: Elounda Queen in the Indiana General Assembly Distaff Handicap, Impel in the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks and Dragoon Guard in the Indiana Derby.

Impel is by far their most likely winner, and while I am unsure whether she will offer value at her win price, I do see her as a reliable key, even as the heavy chalk, in a race that looks to have a couple underlays as the second and third choices.

It looked as though the sky was the limit for Impel after she won her first two career starts, especially her two-turn debut by 8 1/2 lengths after a 3 1/4-length maiden score sprinting on debut. The Ashland (G1) at Keeneland was an OK third in her stakes debut, but that race has not come back particularly strong. She cut back to seven furlongs in the Eight Belles (G2) and was second behind My Mane Squeeze while 4 1/4 lengths clear of Asternia in third. 

I like the stretch out here and just see her as better than these.

Neither Neon Icon nor Band of Gold have numbers that come close to the favorite, and they’re only just as good, at best, as other alternatives underneath Impel. Neon Icon will get bet off her undefeated record with a pair of wins by a combined 9 3/4 lengths, and Band of Gold is a stakes winner.

Still, Just Be Quiet and Little Jamie intrigue as price shots, with the former never worse than second with a pair of wins from four starts at Horseshoe and the latter on the improve figure-wise while shedding blinkers. Both get in at 115 pounds, which could help them beat a few more home than their odds indicate.

Impel is a heavy single for me in the all-stakes multi-race wagers, but I am most excited to play this race to get Just Be Quiet or Little Jamie in the vertical exotics with the favorite.