If Edmonton Oilers win Game 5 you know there’s going to be a Game 7

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The dream goes like this: Whoever wins Game 5 on Tuesday night wins the Stanley Cup.

If the Florida Panthers close out their 3-1 series lead on home ice they’ll be crowned the well-deserved champions. They’ll have won it fair and square.

But if the Edmonton Oilers pick up where they left off in Game 4 and win their second in a row, they’re going to run the table and equal the biggest comeback in Stanley Cup Final history.

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That’s the dream, anyway, as Oilers fans circle their emotional wagons and cling to any sliver of hope they can find.

A long shot? Yup? Far-fetched? A little.

But when one more loss means they turn the lights out on your season, any theory, regardless of how far-fetched or rose coloured, seems plausible.

It has to be, because the alternative is unthinkable.

And, really, you don’t have to connect a lot of dots to understand why Tuesday night might really be Florida’s last best chance to win the series.

Game 5 will be the last time Florida has any sort of advantage. Lose Game 5 on home ice, in what is supposed to be their rebound game after being throttled 8-1 in Game 4, and there is NO WAY they fly back to Edmonton and win a Game 6 in Rogers Place. No chance.

And that means a Game 7 coin toss with the Oilers having just won three games in a row. So, yeah, you can kind of see how some people might see Game 5 as Edmonton’s stairway to heaven.

‘We have to keep the picture small’: Draisaitl

Of course, this is the dictionary definition of getting too far ahead of yourself. And if you float that theory by anyone in the room they’ll shut it down in an instant. You don’t plan ahead for Game 7 when they haven’t even dropped the puck on Game 5.

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The plan doesn’t come together unless the Oilers find a way through Florida’s best game in their own building. So, from now until the end of the series, Edmonton’s mantra remains the same: One Game.

“If you look at the top of the mountain right now it’s pretty steep,” said Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl. “But taking it one day at a time doesn’t seem so bad.

“We have to keep the picture small: First period, first shift, win your first battle and try to get off to a good start.”

The other plausible theory, circulating in Florida, is that Game 4 was just human nature talking. The Oilers were determined not to be swept on home ice and after the Panthers fell behind early they eased up and rested on their cushion: ‘Oh well, we got our split, let’s go home and win it there.’

Florida has a little skin in this game, too, remember, and if the Oilers thought the Panthers were a force in the first three games, imagine what they’ll be facing on Tuesday when the options are celebrating a Stanley Cup in front of friends and family on home ice or piling everyone into a couple of planes and flying six hours back to Edmonton to be lambasted by 18,000 fans.

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If Florida has an extra gear, we’ll see it in Game 5.

“I think they’re going to be better, they’re going to tighten up defensively, for sure, just like any team would after giving up that many goals,” said Draisaitl. “But we have another gear to go to as well.”

In other words, they’re telling you there’s a chance.

The biggest difference in the first three games of the series was Sergei Bobrovsky and if that is no longer the case (he’s given up seven goals on 22 shots over the last four periods for a .682 save percentage), the Oilers absolutely have a chance.

“It’s nice to be able to put some in,” said Oilers forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. “When you feel like you’re getting chances and putting a lot of pucks on net and they’re not going in, it’s nice to break through a little bit, but that doesn’t mean it’s automatically going to happen on Tuesday, we’re going to have to work for it.

“We know they’re going to come out hard, that’s the bottom line. We’re going to have to match that.”

The last two times Edmonton lost three games in a row they followed it up with an eight-game win streak and a 16-game win streak. That was against much weaker opponents, sure, but when the Oilers run hot they can ride the momentum like nobody else.

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“The belief in this group is strong,” said Nugent-Hopkins. “We’ve put together streaks before. We know they’re going to respond, they’re obviously playing for something here. It’s going to take everybody and it’s going to take a lot of work but we’re excited for it.”

E-mail: rtychkowski@postmedia.com

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