Horses to Watch: Add 2 improving older horses to the list

In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

New to the watch list

Paramount Prince

Last year’s Queen’s Plate winner Paramount Prince is a star over the Tapeta track at Woodbine, which he reiterated with a convincing victory in the 1 1/8-mile Dominion Day (G3). After setting modest fractions of 24.83, 49.47 and 1:12.93, the Mark Casse trainee accelerated his fourth quarter-mile in 23.34 seconds to seize a 4 1/2-length advantage. He cruised home from there to win by 3 3/4 lengths in 1:49.35.

Two-turn Tapeta contests at Woodbine like the July 27 Seagram Cup (G2), Sept. 28 Durham Cup (G3) and Nov. 9 Autumn (G2) could be ripe for conquest by Paramount Prince, hence his addition to my watch list.

Subrogate

Is Subrogate a star sprinter in the making? He might be. The son of Arrogate is 0-for-3 running long, but brought his sprinting record to 4-for-4 (and his 2024 tally to 3-for-3) with a runaway win in a 6 1/2-furlong $80,000 allowance optional claimer on Saturday at Belmont at the Big A.

Subrogate was always prominent, pressing fractions of 22.85 and 45.09 seconds before taking over to dominate by six lengths. The 4-year-old colt ran his final sixteenth of a mile in a strong 5.98 seconds to clock a final time of 1:15.45, earning a 106 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form. The best is almost certainly still to come for Subrogate.

Recent watch list winners

Ova Charged

Seven wins in a row. Five wins from five starts on turf. A terrific 15 wins from 18 career starts. Ova Charged boosted all those tallies with a convincing win in the Chicken Fried at Lone Star Park. Normally a speedster, the 6-year-old Louisiana-bred mare dropped as far behind as sixth place in the five-furlong turf sprint, but rallied strongly when called upon to get up and score by 2 3/4 lengths in 55.86 seconds. She just keeps on winning.

Raging Torrent

Up-and-coming 3-year-old sprinter Raging Torrent picked up his first stakes win in the seven-furlong Maxfield at Churchill Downs. Setting fractions of 22.37 and 44.65 seconds did little to tire the Doug O’Neill trainee, as Raging Torrent kicked on nicely down the homestretch to win by a widening 2 1/4 lengths in 1:22.04. A graded stakes is likely next for this talented son of Maximus Mischief.

Worth another try

Adeera

Churchill Downs maiden winner Adeera faltered when stepping into the stakes ranks for Churchill’s Debutante, weakening to finish fifth by 10 lengths. But I try not to drop horses (especially juveniles) from my watch list off a single defeat, so I’ll wait and see how Adeera performs next time before making a decision on whether to remove her.

Disarm

Disarm made a nice middle move up the rail in the Stephen Foster (G1) before fading to finish sixth by 7 1/4 lengths. I was surprised he didn’t show more in his second start of 2024, but I’ll give last year’s Travers (G1) runner-up a chance to bounce back next time.

Extra Añejo

Extra Añejo failed to bring his A-game as the favorite in the Hanshin at Churchill Downs. He showed early speed in the one-mile contest, vying for command through fractions of 23.09, 46;09 and 1:10.53, but faded in the drive to finish seventh by 10 3/4 lengths. Perhaps he can get back to his winning ways next time, because on his best day Extra Añejo is quite talented.

First Mission

Like Disarm, First Mission faltered in the Stephen Foster, fading after setting fractions of 24.13, 48.38 and 1:11.86 to finish fourth by 3 1/4 lengths. Considering he was favored at under even-money, this was a disappointing run, but don’t forget First Mission’s bounced back from a no-show in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) to dominate the Essex Handicap (G3) and Alysheba (G2). Perhaps he can rebound again.

Upcoming entries

Barksdale

Setting blistering fractions of 21.37 and 43.08 seconds didn’t do Barksdale any favors in the Woody Stephens (G1) at Saratoga; he faded to finish 10th by 20 1/2 lengths as stretch runners dominated. He’d previously wired back-to-back allowance sprints at Aqueduct by daylight margins.

If Barksdale is able to escape with easier fractions while switching to turf in Thursday’s fifth race at Ellis Park, the 5 1/2-furlong Dade Park Dash, post time 2:53 p.m. EDT, he can bounce back with a big run. He’s never run on turf before, but his sire (Street Sense) is responsible for several high-profile grass winners in Australia, so the surface switch may not bother Barksdale.