Heading Into The Finals: NBA Playoff Viewing Is Down From Last Year

Later this week the NBA Finals begin with the Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics hosting the Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks. The Celtics will be appearing in their 23^rd NBA Finals seeking their record-breaking 18^th championship. It will be the third NBA Finals for Dallas as the franchise seeks their second title. Both Dallas and Boston are major TV markets which should help ratings. Dallas is the fifth largest market in the U.S. and Boston ranks eighth.

Once again, the NBA Finals will air on ABC. The Disney owned broadcast network has been the television home to the NBA Finals since 2003.The Finals will be taking place amid ongoing media rights negotiations the NBA has been having. The current agreement with ESPN and TNT expires at the end of the 2024-25 season.

Leading up to the 2024 NBA Finals, the average audience through the first three rounds of the playoffs was 4.1 million viewers, a year-over-year drop-off of 13% (4.7 million). In 2022 the first three playoff rounds averaged 4.2 million viewers (-2%).

Opening Round: The opening round of the NBA playoffs involves eight series, the games aired on ESPN, TNT/truTV and NBA TV with strong ratings. According to Sports Media Watch while the average audience of 3.14 million viewers was one of the highest in recent years, it was below last season’s 3.44 million. Last year’s Opening Round had benefited from a Golden State Warriors – Sacramento Kings Game 7 matchup which averaged 9.84 million viewers, the most watched first round game since 1999. (Nielsen began including out-of-home viewing in 2020.) This year Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors were absent from first round,

As expected, the top-rated opening round series featured the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets with league MVP Nikola Jokić facing the Los Angeles Lakers and LeBron James. Sportico reports the five-game series, won by Denver, averaged 4.72 million viewers. The most watched opening round series in the Eastern Conference were the New York Knicks defeating the Philadelphia 76ers in six games, that series averaged 3.94 million viewers.

The playoffs moved to the second round without fan favorites Steph Curry, LeBron James or Kevin Durant. (Durant’s Phoenix Suns were also eliminated in the first round.) As a result, through the opening two rounds, the NBA playoffs averaged 3.77 million viewers across ESPN, ABC, TNT/truTV and NBATV, a drop-off of -11% from last year, but a slight +2% increase from 2022.

Second Round: The two most watched second round series both went the full seven games. The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets series (won by Minnesota) was the most watched averaging 5.5 million viewers. The second most watched series had been the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers (won by Indiana) which averaged 5.08 million viewers.

The top-rated game in the second round was Game 7 of the Minnesota-Denver series. In an upset, Minnesota’s victory eliminated defending champion Denver. The game on TNT/truTV. on Sunday night averaged 8.41 million viewers, making it the networks most watched early round NBA game ever. The game peaked at 11.3 million viewers between 10:15 and 10:30 p.m. (ET). By comparison, the Game 7 between Indiana and the N.Y. Knicks on ABC on Sunday afternoon had averaged 6.45 million viewers.

Conference Finals: The Western Conference Finals pitted the Dallas Mavericks against Minnesota. The five-game series on TNT/truTV averaged 6.74 million viewers. Game 1 was the highest rated, averaging 7.02 million viewers. The average audience was a -15% decline from last year’s WCF on ABC/ESPN when Denver swept the L.A. Lakers in four games and averaged 7.9 million viewers. The 2022 WCF, Golden State over Dallas averaged 6.74 million viewers identical to this year.

The Eastern Conference Finals had Boston sweep Indiana in four games. The series averaged 6.31 million viewers on ESPN and ABC, a -15% decline from 2023. The fourth and final game was the most watched averaging 6.63 million viewers. Last year’s ECF on TNT went the full seven games before the Miami Heat eliminated Boston. The 2023 ECF averaged 7.42 million viewers. The 2022 ECF won by Boston (over Miami in seven games) had averaged 7.0 million viewers.

NBA Finals: Last year’s NBA Finals in which Denver defeated Miami in five games, averaged 11.65 million viewers. This was a -6% decline from the 2022 NBA Finals which averaged 12.4 million viewers (Golden State defeated Boston in six games.) The fifth and final game of the 2023 Finals averaged 13.08 million viewers, the highest rated game of the 2023 NBA postseason. According to Nielsen, in 2023, no NBA game ranked among the 100 most watched telecasts of the year. (NFL games had 93 telecasts).

With a win-loss record of 64-18, Boston had the best record in the NBA and was top seeded in the Eastern Conference, with home-court advantage. Similar to the regular season, Boston breezed through the first three playoff rounds winning 12 of 14 games in defeating Miami, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana.

Dallas was the fifth seeded team in the Western Conference with a win-loss record of 50-32. Dallas did not have home court advantage in any of the postseason rounds and also the NBA Finals.) In eliminating the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota, Dallas had a postseason win-loss record of 12- 5.

NBA Finals Schedule

Game 1 June 6 8:30 p.m. (ET) in Boston

Game 2 June 9 8:00 p.m. (ET) in Boston

Game 3 June 12 8:30 p.m. (ET) in Dallas

Game 4 June 14 8:30 p. m. (ET) in Dallas

Game 5* June 17 8:30 p.m. (ET) in Boston

Game 6* June 20 8:30 p.m. (ET) in Dallas

Game 7* June 23 8:00 p.m. (ET) in Boston

*If necessary (all games on ABC)

Boston are betting favorites to win the NBA Finals. Gambling is legal in Massachusetts but, at present, not in Texas.

NBA Team Valuations: According to Forbes, the average NBA franchise is valued at $3.85 billion, an increase of 35% from one year prior. The Boston Celtics is valued at $4.7 billion, ranking fourth overall (behind Golden State, N.Y. Knicks and L.A. Lakers). Dallas is valued at $4.5 billion ranking seventh among the 30 teams.

Last December Mark Cuban sold his majority ownership of the Mavericks to Miriam Adelson and her family for $3.5 billion. While Cuban’s equity in the franchise is now only 27%, he will continue to oversee basketball operations. Cuban had acquired the Mavericks for $285 million in 2000. The Celtics are owned by Boston Basketball Partners LLC, a private investment group. They acquired the franchise in 2003 for $360 million.

Media Rights Negotiations: The Wall Street Journal reports the NBA are in advanced talks and nearing a $76 billion, 11-year media rights agreement with ESPN, Amazon and NBC. The agreement begins with the 2024-25 season. The deal would leave out long-time media partner TNT. However, TNT, as an incumbent partner, has the right to match a package. Also, the NBA could opt for a fourth media partner.

Under the potential agreement, NBC would carry around 100 games each season, with half of them on Peacock. NBC would also air NBA games on Tuesday nights and Sunday nights after the NFL season. NBC would pay about $2.5 billion each year.

At a cost of $1.8 billion per season, Amazon will gain exclusive rights to the “In-Season Tournament” and “Play-In Tournament” as well as regular season and playoff games.

Disney will increase its annual payment to the NBA from $1.5 billion in its current deal to $2.6 billion. Despite the increase, ESPN will carry fewer NBA games but will retain the top-rated NBA Finals on ABC. The agreement will also enable games to be available on a fledgling streaming service, expected to launch in 2025.

Also included will be rights to WNBA games. Overall, the NBA will see media rights increase to about $7 billion a year, more than doubling the current agreement of $2.66 billion. The final announcement could still be weeks away after the NBA Finals.