Head to Head: See differing views of the Bed o’ Roses

Ashley

Laurie

1. 
Apple
Picker (15-1)

Trained
by Brittany Russell, Apple Picker enters off a 1 3/4-length victory in the Skipat Stakes at Pimlico. Two races back she was fourth behind winner Shidabhuti in the Distaff Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct, and three
races back she won the Barbara Fritchie (G3) at Laurel. This filly has never
strung together back-to-back wins and is either in the exacta or
off the board altogether with a record of 14: 5-2-0. John Velazquez picks up
the mount from Sheldon Russell, who will remain at Laurel and is named on
two of his wife’s charges there. Brittany is just 13 percent in graded stakes with a
29 percent in-the-money clip over the last five years, according Race Lens. She and
Velazquez have also teamed up only once in the last year and didn’t hit the
board. Pass.

Apple
Picker does well on the mid-Atlantic circuit but can muster no better than a
well-beaten fourth anyplace else. Connect’s daughter has hit the board in two
starts at a mile, has tactical speed and attracts John Velazquez. Despite
this, I’m looking elsewhere. Pass.

2. 
Big Pond (4-1)

Trained
by Bill Mott, Big Pond exits a 3/4-length loss to Leave No Trace in the
Vagrancy (G3) at this track. Prior to that, she was seventh in the Madison (G1) after being bumped at the start and put in tight
quarters. She did, however, begin her 2024 season with a 3-length romp in the Spring Fever Stakes. The Vagrancy was the filly’s first start with
Mott after previously being trained by Tim Yakteen. In the last year, Mott
has been 23 percent with a 51 percent in-the-money clip in graded stakes, according to Race Lens.
Big Pond is 1: 0-1-0 at Aqueduct, 3: 1-1-0 at the Bed o’ Roses distance of seven furlongs,
and has been out of the exacta only twice in her eight starts. Junior
Alvarado gets the return call for Mott. Contender.

Big Pond
switched to Bill Mott’s barn after a seventh-place showing in the Madison (G1)
at Keeneland. She returned to finish second in the Vagrancy (G3), but not
without early trouble. Junior Alvarado had to steady in tight quarters down
the backstretch, leaving them at the back of the pack. Big Pond athletically
cut the corner in a sustained bid, making up ground with each stride, but she ran
out of real estate, and missed by 3/4 length. The effort netted Mr. Big’s daughter
a 96 Brisnet rating, and she’ll appreciate the extra half-furlong. Contender.
 

3. 
Accede (6-1)

Trained
by Chad Brown, Accede brings a two-race win streak to the table, albeit in
optional claiming and allowance company. Those were the filly’s first two
victories since breaking her maiden on debut in March 2023. Irad Ortiz Jr. had the call for all three of Accede’s wins and has the
return call for the Bed o’ Roses. This will be the filly’s start at Aqueduct,
and she finished third in her only prior start at seven-furlongs, the
Eight Belles (G2) in her second career start. Ortiz and Brown’s records
speak for themselves, and Ortiz and Accede obviously pair well together.
However, I have to pass.

Considered
the “other” Chad Brown entry, Accede hopes to complete the hat
trick and earn her first graded victory. Into Mischief’s promising 4-year-old
daughter makes her second start off the layoff and is happiest pressing the
pace. She didn’t beat much in her last start but earned a 92 speed rating and
can improve on that. Exotics.

4. 
Morning
Matcha (12-1)

Trained
by Robert E. Reid, Jr., Morning Matcha has been a check-cashing machine for
her connections. She’s 25: 7-7-7 lifetime and enters off two straight
victories: the restricted New York Stallion Series and the
state-bred Unique Bella. The Unique Bella was the now 5-year-old
mare’s first start in 4 1/2 months. Over the last year, Reid has been 15 percent with a 41 percent in the money rate with runners second off the layoff, according to Race
Lens. With a lifetime record of 6: 1-2-2 at Aqueduct and 4: 3-1-0 at the seven-furlong distance, Morning Matcha is a must use. Contender.

Morning
Matcha steps into stakes company again after beating up on lesser stakes
competition. Like Accede, the Robert Reid Jr. trainee is making her second start
off the layoff and hoping for the hat trick. The seven-furlong specialist has
solid speed ratings and hasn’t been disgraced against stakes company in the
past. Lower exotics.  

5. 
Just
Katherine (10-1)

Trained
by Jose Jimenez, Just Katherine enters off a seventh-place, five-length
defeat in the 1 1/16-mile Bayakoa (G3) to begin her 2024 campaign. The filly
is capable of up to 1 1/8 miles, as she has two wins at that distance,
including at Aqueduct. Additionally, she broke her maiden in her third
start when stretching out to seven furlongs. Aside from Just Katherine being too
inconsistent for my tastes, Jimenez is winless with route-to-sprint runners
and also winless with a 10 percent in-the-money clip in stakes races over the last year, according to Race
Lens. Manny Franco has the call for the first time since this time last
year. Pass.

Just
Katherine returns to sprinting after a hit-or-miss record routing. She had an
excuse in the Bayakoa (G3), steadying hard just after the start. After that, Justify’s
daughter settled into sixth place on the outside. She made a tepid
move around the turn, but her heart wasn’t in it. The Jose Jimenez trainee does
her best work as a pace presser but hasn’t shown the class to compete with graded
types. Plus, she’s recorded only three breezes since February. Pass.

6. 
Flying
Connection (3-1)

Flying
Connection will be making her first start for trainer Rob Atras after last
being seen finishing third in the Derby City Distaff (G1) on the
Kentucky Derby undercard. In the last five years, Atras is 25 percent with a 67 percent in-the-money clip with horses making their first start for him after a barn
switch, according to Race Lens. The filly is a stakes winner at lesser tracks
but has acquitted herself well enough in previous graded stakes attempts.
Ricardo Santana Jr. gets the leg up. Use underneath.

Flying
Connection is one of the most consistent fillies in the Bed o’Roses. The last
time she failed to cash a check was in a Grade 2 turf start last July. Nyquist’s
daughter is multiple Grade 1-placed and has tactical speed. Her speed ratings
have risen in each start this year, cumulating with a career-best 99 in her
last outing, and she owns a 98 late pace figure, the second highest in the
field. Contender.

7. 
Hot
Fudge (10-1)

Trained
by Linda Rice, my knee-jerk reaction upon looking Hot Fudge’s most recent
starts had me initially dismissing her. In her last two starts, she has
finished fifth in the Distaff (G3) behind Shidabhuti and third in the Vagrancy (G3) behind Leave No Trace and Big Pond. However, a second
glance had me zeroing in on the fact that the 5-year-old mare is 9: 6-0-2 at
Aqueduct and 4: 3-0-0 at the 7-furlong distance. Before her disappointing
finish in the Distaff (G3), Hot Fudge had been riding a five-race win streak.
Eric Cancel takes over from Kendrick Carmouche, who will be riding at
Monmouth on Saturday. Considering how much she likes this track and distance;
I believe Hot Fudge is a must-use on all tickets. Contender.

Draw a
line through Hot Fudge’s last two starts. She bobbled at the start of the
Distaff (G3) and was rushed to the lead, where she was hounded every step.
She melted in the stretch and finished 5 1/2 lengths behind Shidabhuti. The Linda
Rice trainee lingered at the back of the pack in the Vagrancy (G3), and
instead of taking a ground-saving trip up the rail, Kendrick Carmouche took
her six-wide. The hard-trying filly closed with every step but ran out of
real estate. As Ashley stated, Hot Fudge is a horse for course, and who doesn’t
like Hot Fudge? Live long shot.

8. 
Shidabhuti (6-1)

Trained
by Chad Brown, Shidabhuti began her career 3-for-3, including winning the Busher Stakes. She tailed off from there, however, finishing third in the Gazelle (G3), second in the Boiling Springs Stakes,
and a dismal ninth in the Monmouth Oaks (G3) last July. Given time off, the now 4-year-old filly returned a winner in April, annexing the
Distaff (G3) by a half-length. But she was a well-beaten third in
the Ruffian (G2) last out, finishing behind Randomized and Soul of an Angel
who were first and fifth, respectively, last weekend in the
Ogden Phipps (G1). This is another filly that does particularly well at
Aqueduct, compiling a 5: 3-0-2 record there with a 1-for-1 record at seven furlongs. Brown is 29 percent with a 67 percent in-the-money rate with
route-to-sprint-runners. Dylan Davis has the call. Exotics.

The
ultra-consistent Shidabhuti has finished off the board only once in her eight-race career. The Chad Brown trainee cuts back to seven furlongs after a wide
trip in the Ruffian (G2). Practical Joke’s daughter has tactical speed and is
another horse-for-course. She’s the only filly in the field with back-to-back, triple-digit late-pace figures. Ashley’s covered the main points. Contender.

9. 
Leave No
Trace (6-1)

Trainer
Philip Serpe experimented with Leave No Trace on turf and Tapeta after
failing to move forward as a 3-year-old off what was a very good juvenile
season. I give him an A for effort, but that theory held no
smoke. Since switching back to dirt, Leave No Trace has gone 2-for-2,
including winning the Vagrancy (G3) over Big Pond and Hot Fudge. The now
4-year-old filly is 3: 2-0-1 at Aqueduct and 1-for-1 at the seven-furlong distance.
Jose Lezcano has the call. Contender.

After
showing class as a juvenile in the Spinaway, Frizette and Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile Fillies, all Grade 1s, Leave No Trace struggled as a 3-year-old.
After a failed turf experiment to kick off her 4-year-old season, Philip
Serpe switched her back to springing on dirt and was rewarded with two
hard-fought victories in an optional claimer and the Vagrancy (G3).
Additionally, her speed ratings have improved. Leave No Trace will be
forwardly placed and has speed on either side. Contender.

10. Beguine (12-1)

Trained
by Edward Allard, Beguine enters off a fourth-place finish in the
Vagrancy (G3), weakening late after doing the early leg work and finishing
behind Leave No Trace, Big Pond, and Hot Fudge. That was her first start in 7 1/2 months, and Allard is 33 percent with a 67 percent in-the-money clip, with runners second
off a 6-month-plus layoff over the last year. Trevor McCarthy has the call; he’s
won at just a 9 percent clip over the last 30 days and has not paired with Allard
over the last year. Beguine is 4: 0-2-0 at Aqueduct and has never hit the
board at the Bed o’ Roses distance. Pass.

Although
she was second in the Fantasy (G2) as a 3-year-old, Beguine hasn’t danced her
way into the top three in graded stakes competition since then. She’s a
decent allowance-listed class filly but is out of her depth here. Pass.