Head to Head: Opinions differ on a short Dwyer

Laurie

Ashley

1.   Billal (8-5)

Listed-placed Billal takes another run at stakes competition. He managed a listed placing when a distant 6 1/4 lengths third in the Nashua and faded to fourth earlier this year in the Swale. His sole victories are against sprinters as a pacesetter. Billal earned a career-best 97 Brisnet speed rating in his last start as he chased optional claimers home and was bested 2 1/4 lengths. Pass.

Trained by Bill Mott, Billal is 8: 2-0-3 lifetime. He was third to champion Fierceness in his debut before winning at second asking. His only other victory came in a non-winners of one, $100,000 optional claimer. He is stakes-placed via a third in the $150,000 Nashua over this track. However, he bombed in the Remsen (G2) and was fourth in the $125,000 Swale Stakes. He does own a field-best 102 Equibase speed figure, but he earned that while finishing third to Subrogate, who is undefeated this year. Mott is 21 percent with a 49 percent in the money clip with sprint-to-route runners. Regular jockey Junior Alvarado retains the mount. Pass.

2.   Hades (7-2)

Hades hopes to revive his winter form when he won three straight, including the Holy Bull (G3). His Kentucky Derby hopes ended up in the netherworld with a 19-length thrashing in the Florida Derby (G1) when he was never in contention. Ditto for the Lexington (G3) a few weeks later. The Joe Orseno trainee was last seen finishing a distant third in the listed Pegasus Stakes. Hades may show new life as he’s fired two recent bullets at Monmouth, the blinkers come off, and Paco Lopez may revert to a pacesetting style. Contender.

Trained by Joseph Orseno, Hades was quick off the mark, going 3-for-3 to begin his career, including upsetting the Holy Bull (G3). His last three starts, however, have left a lot to be desired. All combined, he lost his most recent three races by 49 3/4 lengths, finishing fifth in the Florida Derby (G1), seventh in the Lexington (G3), and third in the $150,000 Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth. Orseno takes the blinkers off, a move he has only made once in the last year; the horse hit the baord but did not win according to Race Lens. Pace Lopez has the call. Pass.

3.   Domestic Product (6-5)

Domestic Product was beaten two lengths by Hades in the Holy Bull Stakes and returned the favor in the listed Pegasus, where Domestic Product earned the runner-up spot, 4 1/2 lengths in front of Hades after an early heated battle on the front end. Domestic Product was best of the rest that day behind a dominant Tuscan Sky and earned a career-best 92 Brisnet speed rating. This Chad Brown trainee is the most accomplished in the field. Contender.

Trained by Chad Brown, Domestic Product enters off a distant runner-up effort in the $150,000 Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth, in which he was 4 1/4 lengths clear of third-place finisher Hades. This is another colt that has just two career wins, but one of those wins happened to be the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), which followed up a second-place effort in the Holy Bull (G3). He was 13th in the Kentucky Derby, but that’s a race you can throw out for all but the top five to 10 finishers. The colt he finished behind in the Pegasus, Tuscan Sky, is a one-loss type, finishing off the board in the Wood Memorial (G2). This colt does have a tendency to find trouble, but the short field should work to his advantage. Flavien Prat has the return call for Brown. Contender.

4.   Save the Trees (4-1)

Save the Trees is cross-entered in the Iowa Derby, but his connections indicated a preference for the Dwyer. Save the Trees branches into stakes company after beating suspect fields of maidens and starter-allowance types. He took his sweet time coming out of the gate in his six-furlong Keeneland debut, circled the field seven-wide, and flew through the stretch to win by 3/4 length, earning an 85 Brisnet speed rating. Save the Trees had a similar trip in his first start for Mike Maker last month at Churchill. Off slow, he circled the field to best starter-allowance horses by 2 3/4 lengths, earning an 89 Brisnet speed rating. The starts were visually impressive, but his final furlongs of 13.78 seconds and 12.80 seconds, respectively, show Save the Trees needs to improve. By Grade 1 winning router Preservationist out of a multiple stakes-placed sprinter, Save the Trees has the conformation to enjoy longer distances. Surprisingly, Save the Trees didn’t record any recent gate works, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. needs to hustle the gelding out of the gate to have any chance. Pass

Trained by Mike Maker, Save the Trees is being asked to do a lot here. He’s undefeated in two starts, both at six furlongs. He’ll also get a class test versus experienced stakes runners, and his racing style does him no favors, as making a sustained move in a four-horse field and winning is a formidable task. However, Irad Ortiz, Jr. has the call, and it’s impossible to overlook any horse he’s on. I would not be at all surprised if this gelding took a nice step forward and upset the apple cart here, especially since his speed figures increased from his debut to his second outing. Contender.