Head to Head: It is Bright Future vs. field in Salvator Mile

Laurie

Ashley

1. Sherlock’s Jewel (8-1)

Sherlock’s Jewel has shined since switching to dirt last winter. The Shug McGaughey trainee scored two optional claiming victories at Tampa before finishing second behind Skippylongstockng in the 1 1/16 mile Challenger (G3). Sherlock’s Jewel didn’t have a good trip. He hopped at the start and steadied soon after. After climbing a bit, he settled 3-wide. Lea’s son made a sustained drive but couldn’t get to the winner. It was a decent effort, and Sherlock’s Jewel earned a 94 Brisnet Speed Rating. He has tactical speed, can challenge for the lead or tailgate, and has been training steadily at Monmouth. The cut to a mile should suit. Contender.

Trained by Shug McGaughey, Sherlock’s Jewel has been a whole different runner since transferring to the dirt. On turf, he went 7: 1-1-1, but since moving to the dirt, the 4-year-old gelding has gone 3: 2-1-0. All three races were at Tampa Bay Downs, but they were all contested at 1 mile 40 yards or 1 1 1/16-mile. His lone dirt loss came to none other than the talented and consistent Skippylongstocking in the Challenger Stakes (G3). While jockey Vincent Cheminaud has just a seven percent win rate and 52 percent in the money in the last month, together with Shug, he’s 27 percent with a 50 percent in the money rate over the last year. Cheminaud has just five graded victories to his name, but riding Flintshire to victory in the 2015 Sword Dancer (G1) and Didia to two graded victories last year is nothing to sneeze at. Exotics.

2. Bright Future (1-1)

The aptly named Grade 1 hero Bright Future makes his 2024 bow. The Todd Pletcher trainee has a series of consistent works at Belmont, including two sharp 5 furlong moves and a pre-race 4 furlong 47.65, third-best of 172. Out of the money only once in his eight-race career, Curlin’s son has recorded five triple-digit speed ratings and was at the top of his form last July to November. Bright Future is a pace presser and could get a ground saving trip. Contender.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Bright Future showed he had just that when he stole the 2023 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) by a nose. Prior to that, he had three other victories. One and one-half miles didn’t seem to suit the now 5-year old as he was defeated by 43 ½-lengths in last year’s Brooklyn (G2); however, despite finishing off the board in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) to end his 2023 season, he was only beaten by 3 3/4 lengths while finishing sixth. This will be his first start since then, and Pletcher is 19 percent with a 46 percent in-the-money rate with runners coming off a layoff of six months or longer. Bright Future has a career and field-best 112 Equibase speed figure. Javier Castellano, who was aboard in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, hops back aboard after John Velazquez rode the colt in the Championships last out. Contender.

3. Artorius (4-1)

Artorius is hit-or-miss, and so far, the 5-year-old son of Arrogate and multiple Grade 1 heroine Paulassilverlining hasn’t lived up to his illustrious breeding. In last year’s Salvator Mile, the Chad Brown trainee pressed a slow-to-average pace but backed out from between horses in the stretch, mentally exhausted, and nipped on the wire for third place. Artorius only wins when he gets a clear lead in the stretch, and I don’t see that happening today. Lower exotics.

Trained by Chad Brown, Artorius enters off a victory in a non-winners of two optional claimer. Prior to that, he was third beaten by 1 3/4 lengths, by Blazing Sevens, who was recently last in the Met Mile (G1). Artorius has posted triple digit speed figures in his last four races, including when he finished fourth in last year’s Salvator Mile. Flavien Prat gets the call for the first time. While off the board in his last race at Monmouth, Artorius is 4: 2-0-1 at the one-mile distance. Exotics.

4. Shirl’s Speight (8-1)

Shirl’s Speight returns to the dirt after several average efforts on the lawn. He was third in the 2022 edition of the Salvator Mile, finishing a distant third behind Mind Control and Hot Rod Charlie, and previously was off the board in two efforts over Gulfstream’s dirt. The ordinarily conservative Roger Attfield tightened the screws on Shirl’s Speight in his last trio of breezes, cumulating with a 59.0-second five-furlong bullet at Woodbine. The 7-year-old son of Speightstown and Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf herone Perfect Shirl is showing positive signs, and I admit that I’ve always liked this guy. Exotics.

Trained by Roger Attfield, Shirl’s Speight is being transferred to the dirt in what I feel is a very bizarre decision. He’s 5: 1-0-1 over the surface while 16: 4-2-1 on turf. Interestingly enough, Attfield is 27 percent with a 53 percent in the money rate with turf-to-dirt runners; however, considering that the 7-year-old has never shown any real affinity for the surface, I’m not sure why we’re trying this experiment again. Paco Lopez has the call. Pass.

5. Oscar Eclipse (9-2)

Oscar Eclipse bombed in the listed Knicks Go Overnight Stakes over a good track at Churchill. He broke outward from post 11, then hustled to chase a swift early pace. The Brian Lynch trainee made a sustained wide bid, couldn’t find his motivation for the role, and was going up and down in the stretch. I’m tossing that race. Oscar Eclipse was hindered by a far outside post and was farther back than his preferred pace pressing/setting style. His Brisnet speed ratings hover in the mid to high 90s, and he’s capable of better. Exotics.

Trained by Brian Lynch, Oscar Eclipse has only been off the board on the dirt once, and that was last out in the $200,000 Knicks Go Stakes on the Kentucky Derby undercard. The 4-year-old ended up sixth beaten by 11 lengths, after weakening toward the end of the one-mile trip. Oscar Eclipse’s career-best Equibase speed figure is the 105 that he earned at the mile distance in non-winners of one allowance race at Ellis Park last year. However, his speed figures have been on a downward trend since then. Jorge Ruiz replaces Jose Ortiz, who will be riding at Churchill Downs. Pass.

6. Movisitor (12-1)

Since joining Marya Montoya’s barn, Movisitor has a clear win/lose pattern and only wins when he’s on the lead in optional claiming races. He doesn’t like being around other horses and will back up if between them. Too much going on with him, and I’ll pass.

Trained by Marya Montoya, Movisitor either wins or finishes eighth losing by open lengths. In the last five years, Montoya has only sent out charges in graded stakes four times, and none of them hit the board. To further emphasize the point, in the past year Montoya is just eight percent with a 17 percent in the money rate with last out winners and four percent with a 17 percent in the money clip with runners coming in off a layoff of one to two months. Kendrick Carmouche replaces Mychel Sanchez in the irons. Pass.

7. Stage Raider (20-1)

Justify’s less accomplished little half-brother, Stage Raider, lost his confidence when poorly spotted in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile after a second-place finish in the Ack Ack (G3). He’s had some time off to think about it and post some solid works for Cherie DeVaux, including a pre-race bullet work, four furlongs at Keeneland in 47.4 seconds. Stage Raider is happiest pressing the pace and does his best running fresh. Live long shot.

Trained by Cherie DeVaux, Stage Raider will be making his 2024 debut off a six-month layoff. He was last seen finishing sixth beaten by 10 3/4 lengths, in the $100,000 Tenacious Stakes at Fair Grounds. Now 6-years-old, the last time Stage Raider had his picture taken was back in August when he won the $100,000 R. A. Cowboy Jones Stakes with a surprisingly career- and field-best 112 Equibase speed figure for the surface and distance. Samy Camacho replaces Brian Hernandez, Jr., who will be riding at Churchill Downs, in the saddle. I have to agree with Laurie here. Live long shot.

8. Coastal Mission (10-1)

Coastal Mission won 10 of 11 starts at Charles Town, twice at Laurel Park, and is winless elsewhere. A pacesetter or presser, the Jeff Runco trainee is winless in two starts at a mile, with both starts at Aqueduct. Pass.

Trained by Jeff Runco, Coastal Mission went on quite the tear between breaking his maiden on debut in September 2022 and October 2023. During that time, as Laurie pointed out, he raced primarily at Charles Town, beating up on inferior rivals than he’ll see here. The last time he tried graded stakes company, he was fifth in the Cigar Mile (G2), beaten 10-lengths by winner Hoist the Gold, whose best finish since then was a third-place effort in last weekend’s Met Mile (G1). Regular rider Arnaldo Bocachica retains the mount. Pass.