Head to Head: Favorites vs. long shots in Regret Stakes

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. Way to Be Marie (3-1)

Way to Be Marie looked like the Edgewood Stakes (G2) winner until she was nailed on the wire by a late-closing Dynamic Pricing. Way to Be Marie raced 3-wide the entire way over a yielding turf course, and she earned a career-best 93 Brisnet Speed Rating. The Rob Atras trainee’s only off-the-board finish was a fifth-place showing in her debut after the jock lost the crop. Not This Time’s daughter graduated at 1 1/8 miles over the Fair Grounds lawn and has dangerous tactical speed. Contender.

Trained by Rob Atras, Way to Be Marie has been out of the exacta only once in six career starts, a fifth place in her debut. As Laurie said, the filly looked like a winner in her graded debut last out but was run down by Dynamic Pricing. She received a career and field-best 107 Equibase Speed Figure for the effort and also earned a 100 two starts back. Even though she got caught late in the 1 1/16-mile Edgewood, she already has a win at the Regret distance of 1 1/8 miles. Atras is just 10 percent with a 40 percent in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years, according to Race Lens, but he’s got a talented filly here. Florent Geroux retains the mount. Contender.

2. Everland (20-1)

After a surprisingly good fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), trainer Eric Foster finally switches Everland back to turf, a surface for which she’s bred. Previously, she captured Turfway Park’s Bourbonette Oaks over the Tapeta, making a sneak attack up the rail. The pretty gray daughter of Arrogate is out of Ever Changing, a winning turf miler by Tapit, and her second dam, Rainbow View, is a multiple Group 1 winner. But at 1 1/8 miles over the lawn, Arrogate’s offspring are a disappointing 0-for-24, with only two hitting the board. Perhaps Everland can become his first winner, but her Brisnet ratings are in the spotty 80s. Lower exotics.

Trained by Eric Foster, Everland has only one start on the lawn, a sixth-place finish, beaten by 12 1/4 lengths, and enters off a fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks. She spent most of her career racing on Turfway Park’s Tapeta surface, including an 11-1 upset victory in the Bourbonette Oaks, which earned her a spot in the Kentucky Oaks. In the last year, Foster has succeeded at a 20 percent rate and 53 percent in the money with dirt-to-turf runners. Foster also is only 6 percent, 13 percent in the money, with graded-stakes runners. His last graded win came in 2022 with Kitodan. Abel Cedillo retains the mount. Pass.

3. Gavea (GER) (30-1)

Gavea captured her first two starts, one in France and the other at Churchill last year, but closed the year being eased in Aqueduct’s Chelsey Flower Stakes. The Al Stall Jr. trainee has been away from the races since, indicating something was amiss. She returned to the work tab in March and recently posted five- and three-furlong breezes over the grass. By the 2014 Cartier Champion 2-year-old Colt Gleneagles, Gavea descends from a classy family of German turf routers. If she continues the promise she flashed in her first two starts, a lower exotics finish wouldn’t be out of the question, but the Regret is a steep starting place for Gavea. Pass.

Trained by Albert Stall Jr., Gavea has only three career starts. She won her debut going seven furlongs by a nose in France before shipping stateside. She then won her second start by a head in a mile non-winners of two allowance race. She tried stakes company in her third start but was eased, finishing last by 76 3/4 lengths. That race was on October 27, and the filly has not raced since. Stall is winless with a 33 percent in-the-money rate with runners coming off a 6-month-plus layoff in the last year. In the last five years, he’s at 20 percent, 40 percent in the money, in graded stakes, according to Race Lens. Julien Leparoux will be her fourth jockey in as many starts. Pass.

4. Dancing N Dixie (7-2)

Following the blueprint of her previous two starts, Dancing N Dixie waltzed down the lane in the Edgewood to earn a check for third place, earning a 92 Brisnet rating. The Mark Casse trainee is typically wide and sometimes bumps yet has hit the board in five of nine career outings. Her two victories were earned over Gulfstream’s Tapeta course during pace-pressing trips. Her sire Neolithic doesn’t have winning progeny beyond 1 1/16 miles on turf, but three have hit the board on other surfaces. Her damsire Uncaptured and second damsire Macho Uno offer stamina. Exotics.  

Trained by Mark Casse, Dancing N Dixie’s lone two career victories came on Gulfstream Park’s Tapeta track. But she has given a good accounting of herself since switching to the turf, going 4: 0-0-3 in her last four starts. Aside from her sixth place in the Ginger Brew Stakes, in which she lost by just 4 1/2 lengths, she finished third, beaten by one length, in the Florida Oaks (G3), third in the Appalachian (G2), beaten by just 3/4 lengths, and third in the Edgewood, beaten by 1 1/2 lengths. In her most recent two starts, she received career high Equibase figures of 104 and then 106. This will be her first attempt at 1 1/8 miles, and that extra sixteenth of a mile might be just what she needs to rally past the others in the stretch. Jose Ortiz retains the mount for Casse. Contender.

5. Poolside With Slim (IRE) (8-1)

Poolside With Slim is cross-entered in the Penn Oaks on May 31. After setting the pace, she was last seen fading like a bad tan in the Appalachian (G2) and had the same result in the Florida Oaks (G3). The Rusty Arnold trainee is by multiple Group 1 winning miler Churchill out of an unraced daughter of Epaulete, a multiple Group 1-winning sprinter-miler. Epaulete’s half-sister is a multiple group-winning turf sprinter. I’m not messing around with Slim. I’m passing altogether.

Trained by Rusty Arnold, Poolside With Slim would enter this race off a fifth-place finish in the Appalachian (G2) if they don’t opt for the Penn Oaks instead. The filly’s best two races were on the Tapeta at Turfway Park, where she earned a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure in her debut, and Gulfstream’s Tapeta, where she scampered off to a 5 1/2-length victory. Considering she faded in both career starts in graded company, I expect much of the same here if she shows up at all. Brian Hernandez Jr. has the call for the Regret. Pass.

6. Buchu (5-2)

After a half-length victory in the Appalachian (G2), her first start of the year, Buchu finished an even sixth in the  Edgewood, never appearing from mid-pack to pose a threat. Perhaps the Philip Bauer trainee found the turf too soft for her liking. Buchu graduated over this course, and her lineage has no shortage of stamina. Justify’s daughter is out Flowering Peach, a Galileo mare. Buchu’s multiple graded winning second dam, Naples Bay, is a half-sister to Medaglia d’Oro. Buchu has tactical speed, should Martin Garcis wish to use it, and she should rebound in the Regret. Contender.

Trained by Philip Bauer, Buchu is very hit or miss on the turf. In six starts over the surface, she’s won three and failed to hit the board in the other three. As a juvenile, she won the Jessamine (G2) by 3 3/4 lengths and then began her 2024 season with a half-length triumph in the Appalachian, in which she earned a career-best 106 Equibase Speed Figure. Last out, she made a bid for the lead in the stretch of the Edgewood but weakened to finish sixth, beaten just 2 1/4 lengths for it all. This will be her first attempt at 1 1/8 miles, but she is 2-for-4 on wet turf. Regular rider Martin Garcia retains the mount. Contender.

7. Hello Hollywood (8-1)

Hello Hollywood rebounded from a fourth-place finish in the Sanibel Island Stakes to lose the award by a neck and nose in a 1 3/16-mile allowance class contest at Keeneland. The Brian Lynch trainee stalked the pace set by Sassy Princess but seemed unwilling to pass her rival until late, then was eclipsed on the outside by two late-charging rivals. The pretty gray daughter of Oscar Performance has recorded progressive Brisnet ratings, cumulating in a career-best 90 in her last act, and her 91 late-pace figure is the second highest in the field. But her speed ratings have a low-high-low pattern, and she might regress from her last. Exotics.

Trained by Brian Lynch, Hello Hollywood didn’t debut until January of this year and is 4: 1-0-1 lifetime. She enters off a third-place finish in a 1 3/16-mile non-winners of one high-level allowance where she was beaten by a head in a blanket finish. Even though she’s lost three of her career races, she’s never been badly beaten, and the cutback to 1 1/8 miles may be to her advantage. Definitely to her advantage is the switch back to Irad Ortiz Jr. Also of note is the steady upward trend of the filly’s Equibase Speed Figures, culminating with a 98 last out. Exotics.

8. Sassy Princess (8-1)

Sassy Princess found 1 3/16 miles a little too far in her last start but graduated at 1 1/8 miles in March, so she’s certainly a turf router. The Brendan Walsh trainee earned a career-best 90 Brisnet rating in her last start and could rebound off the effort. Exotics.

Trained by Brendan Walsh, Sassy Princess exits the same allowance race as Hello Hollywood, finishing a neck behind that rival after leading for most of the race. Her sole career victory came at 1 1/8 miles, so cutting back to that distance likely will be just what the filly needs. Walsh is 11 percent, 33 percent in the money, in graded stakes over the last year, according to Race Lens. Flavien Prat will get the leg up from Walsh. Considering that I have a 3-year-old sassy princess of my own (human, not equine), this filly is a hunch bet for me. Contender.

9. Pin Up Betty (15-1)

Pin Up Betty is talented, but it took several starts for Mike Maker to figure out that Constitution’s daughter is a turf router. She’s hit the board at shorter distances over various surfaces and declared her preference with a five-length triumph over this course and distance. Pin Up Betty’s speed ratings are in the mid-80s, and she must improve to be competitive in this group. Pass.

Trained by Mike Maker, I’ve had Pin Up Betty in my virtual stable for ages simply because her dam’s name is I’m Betty G. If you don’t get the reference, please go watch Mean Girls. Back to business. Pin Up Betty has eight career starts and got her picture taken in her most recent outing. Her last two races were on turf and resulted in her two best Equibase speed figures; before that she was posting fair to middling numbers on dirt and Tapeta. She did break her maiden going 1 1/8 miles and Maker seems to have finally figured out what makes the filly tick, but this is a big ask. Pass.

10. Faith Understood (15-1)

Faith Understood held on to graduate in her second start over Keeneland’s turf at 1 3/16 miles. Then Jonathan Thomas shipped her to Aqueduct and shortened her to a mile in the  Memories Of Silver Stakes. Catholic Boy’s daughter set slowish fractions but couldn’t stave off Sweet Rebecca, who zipped past to win by 1 1/2 lengths. I was disappointed that Faith Understood didn’t put up more of a fight. Her speed ratings are low, and there’s speed to her inside. I can’t keep the faith with this one. Pass.

Trained by Jonathan Thomas, Faith Understood is another lightly raced filly with only three starts under her girth. She was fifth on debut over Turfway Park’s Tapeta before graduating at second asking over Keeneland’s turf course. She was most recently a solid second in he Memories of Silver Stakes at Aqueduct. Her Equibase speed figures leave much to be desired compared to others in the field, and she gets her fourth jockey in as many starts when John Velazquez gets the leg up from Thomas. Thomas is also just 12 percent, 33% in the money, in graded stakes over the last five years, with his last victory coming with Wolfie’s Dynaghost at Woodbine back in November. Pass.