Head to Head: Compare 2 perspectives on the Ohio Derby

Laurie

Ashley

1. Frizzante
(15-1)

Fairly consistent as a sprinter-miler, Frizzante gets the
chance to stretch out and move up in class. Vino Rosso’s son should handle
the extra distance. But he’s a polite horse and lets others go first. In
his second-to-last start, he ran in place down the stretch until the winner
passed, and Frizzante picked up the pace to run with him. Although he has
tactical speed, the Greg Sacco trainee’s Brisnet speed ratings are on the low
side, and typical of his sire’s progeny, he has a grinding style rather than
gears. Pass.   

Trained by Gregory Sacco, Frizzante has only one victory
from nine career starts. He has hit the board five other times, including
finishing third on the turf two starts
back, beaten by one length, and losing by a nose last out to earn a
career-high 83 Equibase speed figure. He was beaten by much weaker than he’ll
see here, his foray into stakes company, and Sacco is 0 percent with a 38 percent in-the-money clip in all stakes during the last year, according to Race Lens.
Isaac Castillo has the call for the first time on this gelding. Pass.

2. Gould’s Gold
(5-1)

Gould’s Gold is an improving colt. He was given time to
mature after two nondescript off-the-board finishes last year and rewarded
his connections with a victory in his 3-year-old debut. He regressed a little
after that victory, typical of a lightly raced horse stepping up in class,
adding distance and facing winners for the first time. Still, he didn’t
embarrass himself against more seasoned competitors. The Ken McPeek trainee dropped
into state-bred stakes in the Sir Barton and made a reasonable effort. He
lost focus for a moment in the stretch, giving Corporate Power a chance to
get by, but to his credit, the pretty gray Gould’s Gold came back late. Gould’s
Gold earned a career-best 91 speed rating for the effort and could take
another step forward in his second attempt at 1 1/8 miles. Gould’s Gold trained
with Mystik Dan on June 1, staying with him until Dan said bye-bye in the
stretch. Gould’s Gold returned to work a bullet four furlongs in 48.3, his
second-to-last work. For the curious and the pedigree geeks, Gould’s Gold inherited
his steel gray coloring from his second damsire, Cozzene, who passed it to
his daughter Kentucky Oaks runner-up Real Cozzy, who passed it to her Gould’s
Gold’s dam, Goose Martini. Worth an exotics look.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Gould’s Gold broke his maiden in
his third start after moving from Kentucky to Arkansas. He won a six-furlong maiden race by a head in his third start. Then he was third, beaten by
four lengths, next out in the 1 1/8-mile, the Bathhouse Row Stakes, followed by a loss by a nose after having the lead in the stretch last out in the Sir
Barton Stakes at Pimlico. He earned a career-best 103 Equibase speed figure
for that effort. His one turf effort aside, the colt’s speed figures have progressed.
Brian Hernandez Jr., who was aboard for Gould’s Gold’s best two races, has
the return call. Exotics.

3. Charleston
(30-1)

Still a maiden, Charleston makes his first start for Michael
Rone after being claimed away from Brad Cox by Jinks Fires. So now
Tapiture’s son adds distance and blinkers and jumps back into graded company. I
understand the hopefulness since Charleston has a
pretty good pedigree. His half-brother is stakes winner and Grade 1-placed
Conquest Mo Money; his third dam Passing Mood gave us Champion With Approval and
Belmont hero Touch Gold. Despite this, Charleston might find his niche in the
high maiden claiming ranks. Pass.

Now trained by Michael Rone, there is not much to say
about Charleston. As a southerner and huge fan of Tapiture, I have a soft
spot for this colt, but that won’t cash tickets. In his six career starts,
he’s been beaten by a total of 63 3/4-lengths, including a 22-length thumping
two starts back in the Southwest (G3). Rone is 14 percent with a 29 percent in-the-money
rate with runners first off a trainer switch, has not had a starter in a
graded stakes and is just 15 percent with a 60 percent in-the-money rate with blinkers
added back on over the past five years, according to Race Lens. Luis Raul Rivera has
the call. Pass.

4. Copper Tax (7-2)

Copper Tax takes another shot at a graded stakes after capturing two lesser stakes at Laurel Park. Both starts were away from
the mid-Atlantic circuit, so was it the class of the contenders or is this Gary
Capuano trainee a homeboy? Copper Tax overcame trouble in the Federico Tesio
Stakes. He took a nosedive when the gate opened, was bumped out seven wide on the
first turn and six wide on the second, then bumped a few times down the stretch.
Copper Tax made a sustained drive through much of the race in his usual
grinding style and won by 3/4 length, getting his final furlong in 13.46. Although
Copper Tax’s Brisnet ratings are in the low to mid-90s, I’ll let him prove
that he can win away from home. Pass.

Trained by Gary Capuano, Copper Tax enters on a two-race
win streak: the 1 1/16-mile Private Terms Stakes and the 1 1/8-mile Federico Tesio Stakes, both at Laurel Park. The handsome chestnut
has missed the exacta just twice in his 10-race career, both in road to the
Kentucky Derby races. He was sixth in the Remsen (G2) and 10th in the Sam F.
Davis (G3). The cut in class did him good after those two races, and the
increase in confidence is sure to boost his esteem heading into his third attempt
at graded company. Capuano is 0 percent with a 27 percent in-the-money clip in graded
stakes over the last five years, according to Race Lens. J. G. Torrealba has the
return call. Exotics.

5. Uncle Heavy
(6-1)

Uncle Heavy returns to the Grade 3 ranks after two dismal
starts at higher levels. But he broke slow in the Wood Memorial (G2) and had a wide trip, gaining ground to finish fifth. This was after he missed workouts while stuck in quarantine on a farm for three weeks because an equine
herpesvirus outbreak at Belmont and could not ship back to his home track of Parx.
He doesn’t have much speed; he graduated in a six-furlong
contest at Parx in 1:13.3 and has never finished his final furlong in less than
13 seconds. But the Butch Reid trainee settles in mid-pack or farther
back, and the drop in class should help. Exotics.

Trained by Robert Reid Jr., Uncle Heavy takes a sharp
drop in class after finishing fifth in the Wood Memorial (G2) and sixth in the
Preakness in his last two starts. The colt was a debut winner but
finished fifth in the state-bred Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes. He rebounded to
win the state-bred, Wait For It Stakes at Parx and the Withers (G3)
with a career-best 95 Equibase speed figure. But his speed figures have
declined in his last two starts. Uncle Heavy either wins or fails to hit the board
altogether. Mychel Sanchez takes back over from Irad Ortiz Jr., who rode the
colt in the Preakness. Pass.

6. Deposition
(12-1)

Upon examining Deposition’s past performances, I
discovered he won a maiden race at Parx, took an unfortunate detour into
stakes company for five starts and then won an optional claimer at Delaware.
His high knee action and pedigree suggest Constitution’s son may show signs
of life if he’s switched to all-weather or turf. Deposition’s half-sister and
dam won on Tapeta, and his second dam, Country Star, won a pair of Grade 1s
on Synthetic and a Grade 2 on turf. Additionally, Deposition’s damsire Dubawi is a European multiple Group 1 winner, and second damsire Empire Maker was
a good turf sire. Pass.

Trained by Uriah St. Lewis, Deposition fell and was
vanned off in the Wood Memorial (G2) in April. He returned in the Sir Barton, where he was steadied into the first turn and failed to
be any factor in the race. St. Lewis dropped him into a non-winners
of two lifetime last out, and the colt responded with a win. His best
Equibase speed figure was the 90 he earned in the Withers (G3) when finishing fourth, beaten by three lengths by Uncle Heavy. Regular rider Dexter Haddock has the
call. St. Lewis is just 6 percent with a 17 percent in-the-money rate in graded stakes over
the last five years, according to Race Lens. Pass.

7. Who’s the King
(20-1)

Who’s the King is an interesting entry. His stablemate Batucada
is 12-1 on the morning line for the Lady Jacqueline Stakes preceding the Ohio Derby. Like
many of Saffie Joseph Jr.’s charges, Who’s the King showed remarkable
improvement by winning a $50,000 maiden claiming race by 7 1/4 lengths, geared
down in his first start off the claim and switching to dirt. Draw a line through
Who’s the King’s last start, a starter allowance at Churchill. Breaking from
the rail, he was in a tight spot around the turn, steadied hard and was very
keen in traffic. He folded like a $2 lawn chair down the stretch and faded to
sixth, 8 3/4 lengths behind the winner. Live lower exacta long shot.

Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., Who’s the King is an odd
one. He failed abysmally in his debut on the dirt for Mark Casse then ran
everywhere from well to terribly on Tapeta. In his first start for Joseph, Who’s the King ran decently on the turf before finally getting his
picture taken when switching back to dirt in a maiden optional claimer. He then was sixth last out in a starter allowance. Rocco Bowen gets the call for
the first time. Pass.

8. Catching
Freedom (9-5)

Catching Freedom returns after a fast-closing third in
the Preakness. He’s the only one in the field with triple-digit Brisnet
ratings and is the class of the field. Previous Triple Crown contenders
have been successful in the Ohio Derby, and this is a big step down in competition
for Catching Freedom. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Catching Freedom is the class of the
race. The Louisiana Derby (G2) hero was fourth in the Kentucky Derby,
beaten by just 1 3/4 lengths, and third in the Preakness, beaten by 2
½-lengths. The colt has a career and field-best 107 Equibase speed figure.
The obvious concern here, however, is just how much did the Kentucky Derby
and Preakness take out of this colt? Even if he does bounce, this should be
enough of a class drop to still see him do well. Luis Saez will get the leg
up from Cox. Contender.

9. Batten Down
(8-1)

Royally bred Batten Down makes his stakes debut after destroying
a so-so group of maidens at Churchill by 8 3/4 lengths, earning a career-best 97
Brisnet rating. The Bill Mott trainee traveled 1 1/4 miles in 2:02.49, with a
final quarter in 25.23. Not that it means much because track surfaces can
change daily, but four days later, Mystik Dan’s time was 2:03.34 with a 25.88
final quarter. Tacitus and Grade 3 winner Scylla’s little brother does his
best work on the front end. Contender.

Trained by Bill Mott, Batten Down enters this spot off a
maiden win. It took the regally bred colt four attempts to get his picture
taken, and his worst effort came in his debut, which was just seven furlongs.
Once Mott stretched Batten Down out around two turns, the colt was second by a
neck at 1 1/8 miles, third by a half-length at 1 1/16 miles, and a winner at 1 1/4 miles.
His two best races came when he was on the lead, and his Equibase speed
figures have progressed, though his highest number is only an 88. Junior Alvarado
retains the mount. Live long shot.

10. Mugatu (12-1)

Mugatu didn’t have enough points to get into the Kentucky
Derby, so he pointed for the Preakness, where he was eased and walked off. I
really wish they’d give this poor guy a rest or a second career. He’s entered
the starting gate 10 times in eight months, with one win and two third-place
finishes. Pass.   

Trained by Jeff Engler, Mugatu is the most experienced
runner in the field with 13 starts under his girth. Like Catching
Freedom, he exits the Preakness in which he was eased and walked off. Mugatu has only three starts on traditional
dirt and failed to hit the board in all of them. Engler is 0 percent across the
board with both blinkers off and in stakes races over the past year, according to Race
Lens. Ramon Vazquez gets the leg up for the first time. Pass.