The $500,000, Grade 2 Fleur de
Lis Stakes, contested at 1 1/8 miles at Churchill Downs on Saturday, drew a field of six,
five of whom are graded-stakes winners. Topping the field is Scylla, a full
sister to recent Ohio Derby (G3) winner Batten Down.
The Fleur de Lis race has been graced by legends such as Letruska,
Midnight Bisou, Forever Unbridled, Royal Delta, Rachel Alexandra and Serena’s
Song.
Stonestreet homebred Pauline’s Pearl stood in the winner’s circle
one final time in last year’s Fleur de Lis and bid adieu to the track a race
later.
Saturday’s Fleur de Lis Stakes is the eighth race on the
12-race card. Post time is 4:25 p.m. EDT. There’s a 50 percent to 60 percent chance of
afternoon thunderstorms.
Ashley Tamulonis of From Coast to Coast and Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power sift through
a short but talented field hunting for a Breeders’ Cup Distaff candidate.
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Ashley
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Laurie
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1.
Free Like a Girl (6-1)
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Trained
by Chasey Deville Pomier, Free Like a Girl is a throwback to when horses
raced rather than just logged a bunch of works. The 5-year-old mare has a
career record of 39: 17-11-6. So far this year, she’s 7: 2-3-2 and was most
recently seen finishing second to Idiomatic in the La Troienne (G1).
Although the mare is multiple graded-stakes placed, she has yet to win a graded
stakes, though she’s given a very good accounting of herself in her last two
attempts, hitting the board in both. In the last five years, Pomier is 0 percent in
graded stakes but has an 86 percent in-the-money rate. Fun fact: six of her seven
graded starts over that time frame were made by Free Like a Girl while High
On Gin was Pomier’s only off-the-board placing, according to Race Lens. Corey
Lanerie gets the return call. Exotics.
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Free
Like a Girl has matured during the last year from restricted stakes in the
bayou to multiple Grade 1 placed, with career earnings of $1,618,478. This Louisiana-bred
is outperforming her humble $5,500 price tag and her sire’s $2,500 stud fee. The
class has been passed through her distaff line each generation and traces
back in a solid line to her seventh dam, Review, who produced five
champions. Chasey Pomier has taken Free Like a Girl from graduating at Evangeline three years ago to closing for second place in the La Troienne (G1) over
a sloppy track, sandwiched between last year’s two champs, older mare Idiomatic,
who set an uncontested pace, and 3-year-old champ Pretty Mischievous.
In the Apple Blossom (G1), her second-to-last start, Free Like a Girl wasn’t
going to catch the free-running Adare Manor and looked like she would hold
second place, only to be nipped 3/4 length by the fast-closing Flying
Connection. Free Like a Girl has bested three Fleur de Lis rivals, Shotgun
Hottie, Taxed and Xigera, in the La Troienne or Apple Blossom. Free
Like a Girl’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have climbed gradually in her last three
starts to 95, and she hit the board in six of seven over an off track. While I’m
not gilding the lily, I consider Free Like a Girl a Contender.
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2.
Shotgun Hottie (4-1)
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Trained
by Cherie DeVaux, Shotgun Hottie enters this spot off a 5 3/4-length romp in
the Allaire DuPont Distaff on the Black-Eyed Susan undercard at
Pimlico. She was off the board in her three other starts this year, finishing sixth in the Bayakoa (G3), fourth in the Azeri (G2), and fourth in the Apple Blossom (G1), all at Oaklawn Park. She’s been off the board only five times in her career, with three of those at Oaklawn, so it’s possible
she just didn’t like the Hot Springs track, especially since she bounced back
to receive a career-best 111 Equibase speed figure in the Distaff last out.
DeVaux has had a career year in 2024, and Paco Lopez, who gets the return
call, has been hot in the last 30 days, winning at a 26 percent clip. Shotgun
Hottie is 2: 1-0-1 at the Fleur de Lis distance. Contender.
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A Grade
3 winner, Shotgun Hottie is knocking on the Grade 1 stakes door. Gun Runner’s
daughter proved 1 1/8 miles isn’t an issue – against lesser types, anyway, by running away in a 5 3/4-length Allaire DuPont Distaff victory. The Cherie
DeVaux trainee earned a career-high 103 Brisnet rating, a 14-point jump from
her Apple Blossom fourth-place finish, which might signal a regression.
Shotgun Hottie has tactical speed as a pacesetter-presser and has hit the
board in two of three starts over an off track, and Monmonth-based Paco Lopez excels
with pacesetter-pressers. Shotgun Hottie fits here, and if it wasn’t for the
14-point speed-rating jump, she would be among my picks. Pass.
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3.
Taxed (5-1)
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Trained
by Randy Morse, Taxed has had a very up-and-down career. She showed promise
last season when finishing second in the Martha Washington,
the Fantasy (G3) and the Indiana Oaks (G3) while upsetting the Black-Eyed
Susan (G2) at 11-1. This year she’s 3: 2-0-0, winning two optional claimers
while finishing a well-beaten fifth in the Apple Blossom (G1). Morse
is just 8 percent with a 33 percent in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the past
five years, according to Race Lens; Taxed’s Black-Eyed Susan triumph was his
only victory during that time period. Brian Hernandez Jr. has the return
call off the duo’s triumph at Churchill Downs last out with a career-high 102
Equibase speed figure. With a 4: 2-0-1 under the Twin Spires, you can’t
ignore Taxed completely. Exotics.
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Taxed hopes
to regain her 3-year-old form when she captured the Black-Eyed Susan (G2). The
Randy Morse trainee was bested by Free Like a Girl in the Apple Blossom and by Xigera in the Seneca
Overnight Stakes. The pretty gray filly’s speed ratings are in the high 80s to low
90s, yet her late-pace ratings are typically in the high 90s to 100,
reflecting her closing running style. Taxed hasn’t strung two wins together,
and she’s too inconsistent for me to recommend her. Pass.
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4.
Scylla (6-5)
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Trained
by Bill Mott, Scylla’s Shawnee (G3) victory was flattered this past weekend
when full brother Batten Down won the Ohio Derby (G3). The regally bred filly
is now 6: 4-1-1 lifetime and 3-for-3 at Churchill Downs with
wins in the Shawnee and two optional claimers. This will be the Scylla’s
first attempt at 1 1/8 miles, but if her brothers are any good indication,
that should be well within her scope. Regular rider Javier Castellano retains
the mount. Contender.
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Ashley
noted that Scylla is a horse-for-course at Churchill, which is rare for Tapit’s
offspring. However, as her brothers are large grays, the bay filly favors her
dam Close Hatches and damsire First Defense in coat color and confirmation.
Scylla has tactical speed and can close or press the pace as the race’s speed
dictates. That and her pedigree indicate 1 1/8 miles shouldn’t be an issue. The
Bill Mott trainee’s speed ratings have improved in her last three starts, and
she must be considered a contender.
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5.
Occult (6-1)
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Trained
by Chad Brown, Occult was on the pace in the Serena’s Song last out
before ultimately crossing the wire in second. But he was disqualified
and placed third for drifting in and out in the stretch,
causing Venti Valentine to slam on the brakes and lose momentum. It was the
filly’s first race off a 6 1/2-month layoff, so it’s understandable that she
was rusty and got a bit tired. Occult’s last win came a year ago to the day
in the Monmouth Oaks (G3), which she won by 10 1/4 lengths. She then was third in both the Cotillion (G1) and the Mother Goose (G2) to close out her year.
This will be the filly’s first race at Churchill Downs, but she’s 3: 1-0-1 at
the 1 1/8-mile distance. Her career-best Equibase speed figure is the 104 she
received when finishing thire, beaten by just 1 3/4 lengths, in the
Cotillion. Brown is 27 percent with a 60 percent in-the-money clip with runners second off
the layoff and 18 percent with a 52 percent in-the-money rate when that second start off
the layoff is a graded stake. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the call. Exotics.
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Occult has
been hit or miss throughout her career. When she’s good, she’s very, very
good, with winning distances between 3 3/4 lengths to 10 1/4 lengths. Yet that’s happened only three times. The Chad Brown trainee wasn’t ready for prime time
in her 4-year-old debut. Occult gave them a half-length head start in the Serena’s
Song Stakes and was pushed six wide on the first turn. She took the lead in the
stretch, and Javier Castellano pulled her to the rail, causing Venti
Valentine to take up sharply to avoid an accident. Occult then drifted out to
the fast-closing Kathleen O. but finished 3/4 length behind that one. Occult
was disqualified to third place. Into Mischief’s daughter earned an 86 speed
rating. Her average ratings range in the 90s, so she should build off her
last race, and she’s hit the board in all four starts over an off track. Irad
Ortiz Jr. gets back in the saddle. He’s looking for his first victory with Occult,
as the pair have finished third all three times when they teamed. Exotics.
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6.
Xigera (9-2)
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Trained
by Philip Bauer, Xigera finished her 3-year-old season with three
straight wins after switching from turf to dirt. It doesn’t matter which
surface she runs on however, as she is Grade 1 placed on the turf and a Grade 2 winner on the dirt. She hasn’t quite gotten back to top form this
year, however. In her 2024 bow, which came off a 5 1/2-month layoff, she
finished fifth, beaten by 39 1/4 lengths in the La Troienne (G1). Last
out, she was a distant second to Scylla in the Shawnee (G3). Xigera
loves Churchill Downs with a 4: 2-1-0 record over the course and is 2-for-2 at the Fleur de Lis distance. Bauer is 21 percent with a 58 percent in-the-money
clip with runners third off the layoff and 20 percent with a 60 percenet in-the-money rate
when that start is in graded stakes. Regular rider Julien Leparoux gets the
leg up. Contender.
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Xigera
needed the start in the La Troienne, a tough place to make her 4-year-old
debut and first over an off track. She returned to finish second behind Scylla
in the Shawnee (G3). Since then, the Philip Bauer trainee posted two sharp
breezes: a bullet five-furlong 58.2 move on June 15 and four furlongs in 47 flat on
June 22, second-best of 150 of the day. The Grade 2 winner has outside speed,
and once she gets the lead in the stretch, it’s all over. Also, Nyquist is a superior
mud sire. Race Lens shows a 21 percent win rate on off tracks in routes and 29 percent wins
for the surface-routes at Churchill. Contender.
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Final thoughts
Ashley: Once again, we have a race where you can make
a case for anyone in the field. With only six entrants, this is more of a sit
back and watch race rather than a betting one. But for the sake of hopefully
cashing a winning ticket, let’s try to whittle this thing down.
Since Churchill Downs doesn’t offer a 10-cent superfecta wager,
keying all in each spot of the super results in a $360 ticket, and you’re not
going to turn a profit on that. Likewise, a 50-cent trifecta wager keying all in
each spot is $60. Again, not worth it.
So, let’s keep this simple. I loved Batten Down in the Ohio Derby
last weekend, and I love Scylla here. She’s my top selection, hooves down.
Occult, with Irad Ortiz Jr., must be respected as he’s the top
jockey in the country, and Shotgun Hottie enters off a career-best race. Free
Like a Girl wasn’t huge on my radar as the only non-graded stakes winner in the
field, but with the current weather forecast, I’m moving her up since
she’s 7: 2-4-0 on an off track. Taxed is inconsistent and Xigera was
off the board in her previous attempt over a wet track, so those will be the
two I’m leaving out.
Laurie: Only three Fleur de Lis heroines won their
prep in the last dozen years. Four used the La Troienne as a stepping stone,
finishing second twice, sixth and ninth. Speed is favored, with pressers
dominating and two pacesetters prevailing. Two closers also won.
Only one favorite finished worse than fourth; five won, but the
last two placed third. Seven from post 1 figured in the superfecta.
As Ashley noted, this is a closely matched field. Scylla, Free
Like a Girl, and Xigera appear closely matched.
Scylla is up and coming, the deserved favorite, and absolutely
loves Churchill. Although Tapit’s offspring have a 7 percent win rate on off tracks, Scylla
is a bay like her damsire and physically resembles Close Hatches. Scylla beat a
well-regarded group in the Shawnee Stakes, including CCA Oaks (G1) heroine Wet
Paint. Although she’s not a frightening mythical Greek figure, Scylla is pretty intimidating
in this spot.
Free Like a Girl didn’t embarrass herself running against two
champions in the La Troienne over a sloppy track. She cut the corner and was in
tight next to Idiomatic until that one switched gears and took off like a Ferrari.
Free Like a Girl kept her runner-up position.
Xigera had a challenging task when the La Troienne came up with a
pair of heavy hitters, and she was making her first start off a layoff and at 1
1/8 miles over a sloppy track. She was in the hunt in the Shawnee and bested
Wet Paint by 1 1/4 lengths. Unlike Ashley, I’ve no fear that Xigera won’t handle
the off going. Both half-siblings and her dam won over the slop, and I
mentioned that Nyquist is a superior mud sire.
Selections
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Ashley
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Laurie
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4. Scylla
(6-5)
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4. Scylla
(6-5)
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5. Occult (6-1)
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1. Free
Like a Girl (6-1)
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2. Shotgun Hottie (4-1)
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6. Xigera (9-2)
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1. Free
Like a Girl (6-1)
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5. Occult (6-1)
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