Haven Rush, ‘Trump Trades’ on Investor Minds After Shooting

(Bloomberg) — Investors will initially favor traditional haven assets and perhaps lean into trades most linked to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.

Currencies begin trading at 5 a.m. in Sydney when the US dollar could get a boost, along with other refuges from market volatility like Japan’s beleagured yen, the Swiss franc and gold. Bitcoin rose above $60,000 in the wake of the attack.

Traders will also be watching futures contracts on the S&P 500 index and on the US Treasuries market, both of which start trading at 6 p.m. in New York; Cash trading of US bonds won’t get going until 7 a.m. in London due to a national holiday in Japan.

“Yesterday’s assassination attempt of President Trump is likely to mark the ‘grand opening’ of an elevated period of volatility for risk assets,” said Frank Monkam, senior portfolio manager at Antimo. “Trump trades are also poised to move on the high conviction list for investors, with a particular focus on rates markets where the re-pricing of fiscal profligacy will look to offset the prospects of imminent Fed cuts.”

Initial market commentary suggested the shooting of Trump at a Saturday rally in Pennsylvania may prompt traders to boost his probability of success in November’s election. Trump’s presidential bid has gained momentum across global markets after 81-year President Joe Biden flopped in the first presidential debate on June 27th. 

In the aftermath of Saturday’s attack – with images of a defiant Trump with his fist raised over his head and his bloody right ear — chances of him becoming president again increased, according to PredictIt data. 

Trump’s support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs are generally viewed as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.

Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include the shares of energy firms, private prisons, credit-card companies and health insurers. Traders will also closely watch market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those on the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which had begun to price in the US vote.

“Should the election become a landslide victory for Trump, this probably reduces uncertainty, which is positive for risk assets,” said Charles-Henry Monchau, chief investment officer at Banque SYZ. “Meanwhile, this could lead to more upward pressure on bond yields and a steepening of the yield curve.”

Tech and renewable-energy stocks could suffer, he added.

Bitcoin may also rise further, given both its appeal to investors seeking a hedge for political turmoil away from conventional financial assets, and Trump’s pro-crypto stance.

“This news marks a changing point in American political norms,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, adding that he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold after the shooting. “For markets, it means haven trades but more skewed towards non-traditional havens.”

Trump said he was shot in the right ear after gunfire erupted at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which saw him rushed from the stage. An attendee at the rally was shot and killed and two others were in a critical condition.

What Bloomberg’s Strategists Say…

“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shooting. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear read may be especially tough because liquidity will be hampered by Japan’s national holiday.”

— Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Markets Live

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Strategists had already expected a volatile run into the election, not least because Democrats are still agonizing over President Biden’s candidacy. Investors had been also grappling with the possibility that the election may end in a protracted dispute or political violence.

But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market dipped before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose over 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Markets will naturally stand on high alert for any potential copycat repeat attacks,” said Neil Jones, a foreign-exchange salesperson to financial institutions at TJM Europe. “I would expect the dollar to open stronger across the board, a function of an initial reflex risk reaction and perceptions Trump’s popularity poll rating is set to increase.” 

Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances, and ultimately lead to worries about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, California-based chief strategist at BCA Research Inc. 

Yields surged in the wake of Biden’s poor debate performance, showing the sensitivity of Treasuries — particularly longer-dated securities — to signs that Trump will get the chance to enact his fiscally expansive platform.

“The bond market should at some point, become aware of President Trump’s higher odds of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his odds rise, so should the probability of a bond market riot.”

Here’s what others on Wall Street had to say: 

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and adviser at Wealthspire Advisors: 

“Regardless on what may or may happen Monday morning, not reacting may prove to be the smartest thing you can do as a stock investor because generally people overreact in the wrong direction. Markets will find their equilibrium and get back to the things that matter from an investment perspective, which are economic growth, monetary and fiscal policy and corporate earnings.”

Joe Gilbert, Senior Portfolio Manager at Integrity Asset Management: 

“The Trump assassination attempt will definitely inject some uncertainty into markets. Given markets are trading at all-time highs, it would make sense to for the market to retreat from these levels as the potential for a more contentious and contested election seems more probable. We expect volatility to increase even as the odds of a Trump win seems to be getting higher odds.”

Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research: 

“The quick takeaway from everyone right now is that this helps President Trump. After the debate, Biden’s probability collapsed, but Trump’s probability didn’t rise. We should be able to price on Monday what a Trump presidency looks like for the markets.”

Michael Purves, founder and CEO of Tallbacken Capital:

“From a markets perspective, I would suggest that if Trump emerges as an even more obvious winner, then we should see the bear steepener we saw after the debate. In terms of equities, I don’t think this changes the trajectory at the overall level, though some stocks which will benefit from lower corporate taxes and lower regulation.”

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank:

“This weekend’s events will likely cause increased volatility on Monday open both in stock and bond markets. We expect to see flight to safe havens like Swiss franc and gold. Bitcoin has reacted positively to the news as a result of knee-jerk flight to safety.”

–With assistance from Greg Ritchie, Jessica Menton, Natalia Kniazhevich, Alexandra Semenova and Carly Wanna.

(Updates with new commentary starting in 19th paragraph.)

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