Hanshin fair odds: Tough leg in Churchill mandatory pick 6

I’m going to be honest with you. The way my opinion lines up with the expected odds for the listed Hanshin Stakes on Sunday at Churchill Downs makes this my least-favorite type of race to bet.

That is, the logical contenders all make sense and there is not a lot of value because none of the long shots intrigue me.

Now, by the time we see the board for race 10 of 11 on Sunday, some opportunity might present itself. But we will not have access to that information when the mandatory-payout Pick 6 starts in race 6. Going into Thursday’s card, the carryover is $284,890. A conservative estimate would have the carryover beyond $400,000 if the pool lasts until closing day, which means the total pool on Sunday could easily approach $3 million.

All that is to say, there is a reason to play the Hanshin despite being lukewarm about the value opportunity. I just hate going into a super exotic pick N wager knowing that I’ll want more than a third of the field without really separating from the pack.

I have Zozos as the most likely winner, but he also might be the one to fade the most. He’ll definitely take money and has the least amount of upside to be on the ticket. 

Cagliostro most interests me cutting back to a one-turn mile. I loved his return at Keeneland, and he certainly did not embarrass himself when second to Highland Falls in the Grade 3 Blame Stakes. I am unsure if he will be value in the win pool, but in terms of how horses get used in the Pick 6, I see him as more likely underutilized and thus is a lean for me.

Extra Anejo is the wildcard. His brilliance is unmatched, and being lightly raced gives that air of “how good is he” intrigue. He is the type of horse who I could see singling if you believe in the talent and think is ready for this. 

Charge It is the last of the four who I see as legitimate contenders here. If you have an opinion on any of the other seven, then that is a potential separator for this sequence. Unfortunately for me, my opinion here is pretty square, so hopefully I’ll have something clever in one of the other five races.

Vertically, I’d be most excited to see Zozos and Charge It get bet, and then I’d lean on Extra Anejo and Cagliostro. If the former gets bet, then I’ll need to decide whether he’s a toss altogether or whether there’s still some value to string him with Cagliostro.

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