Former NFL Executive Explains Why Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence’s Deal Isn’t As It Appears

There has been a lesson taught time and time again when it comes to NFL contracts: funny money rules.

Eye-popping “total value” numbers will always get a shock reaction on social media, with the big figures, years and annual value all being presented in a way for agents, players and teams to all say they have won with a big splash.

But in reality, every NFL contract goes far deeper than these at face value figures. And this is especially true when it comes to Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence and his new deal.

Lawrence’s five-year, $275 million deal drew a wide range of reactions when he signed it last month, with many opining that the fourth-year quarterback hasn’t earned it.

But as former Green Bay Packers vice president Andrew Brandt explained in an article on Sports Illustrated, the Lawrence deal is far from what it seems.

“I say it all the time: Ignore the salary cap; the cap is just accounting. Focus on the cash: the cold, hard cash.

I focus on what the player is making year-by-year for the “realistic” portion of the contract. For most positions, that is two, or maybe three, years (for running backs, it may just be one year). For quarterbacks, I analyze year-by-year cash over four years, sometimes more. This, more than any other marker, is the most important evaluation metric for the business of NFL player contracts.

And this is where Lawrence’s new contract is dramatically deficient. I analyzed the one-year cash, two-year cash, three-year cash and four-year cash of this contract, relative to a few peers, and here is the bottom—pun intended—line: Lawrence is dead last in every category.

One-year cash:

Lawrence will make $39 million in the first year of his contract. That is last among all recent quarterback contracts, far behind Goff ($80.6 million), Jackson ($80 million), Cousins ($62 million), Jones ($46 million) and Burrow ($45 million).

Two-year cash:

Lawrence will make $76.5 million over the first two years of his contract. That is last among all recent quarterback contracts, far behind Jackson and Burrow ($111 million), Goff ($98 million), Watson ($92 million) and Cousins ($90 million).

Three-year cash:

Lawrence will make $114 million over the first three years of his contract. That is last among all recent quarterback contracts, far behind Jackson ($155 million), Goff ($153 million), Burrow ($146 million), Watson ($138 million) and Herbert ($133 million).

Four-year cash:

Lawrence will make $155 million over the first three years of his contract. That is last among all recent contracts, far behind Jackson ($207 million), Goff ($193 million), Burrow ($181 million), Jones ($160 million) and Herbert ($157 million).

If you are sensing a theme, you are correct. In the key markers of “how much” the contract earns for the player after one, two, three or four years, Lawrence brings up the rear compared to his peers in all categories.

So much for that record-breaking contract.”

– Andrew Brandt, Sports Illustrated

The Jaguars agreed to terms with the quarterback and former No. 1 pick last month, agreeing to a five-year deal worth $275 million with $200 million in guarantees and $142 million fully guaranteed.

Lawrence’s deal will pay him an average of $55 million a season, which ties him with Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow as the highest-paid player on an annual basis in the NFL.

Since being drafted No. 1 in 2021, Lawrence has started 50 regular season games. Lawrence ranks fourth in franchise history in passing yards with 11,770 and is fourth in touchdown passes with 58.

Since being drafted, Lawrence has been voted as a team captain by his teammates each year of his NFL career and was selected to the Pro Bowl in 2022 after recording 387 completions for 4,113 passing yards and 25 touchdowns with a passer rating of 95.2.

During the 2023 season, he completed 370 passes becoming the only quarterback in franchise history to start his career with three seasons of at least 300 completions and the second quarterback in team history to record at least 300 completions in three consecutive seasons. He has been named AFC Offensive Player of the Week three times in his career, twice in 2022 (Week 3 and 12) and once in 2023 (Week 11).

In his career, Lawrence has also posted 205 rushing attempts for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns.