Florida IS NOT the Most Crucial 2024 Football Game

It’s not often that I write commentary on the UCF Knights here on the Black and Gold Banneret. However, after seeing the prevailing notion that the upcoming matchup facing the Florida Gators at “The Swamp” in Gainesville is the most crucial game of 2024 makes its rounds, I feel compelled to take up my mantle as the voice of reason in the spirit of Lee Corso and declare, “Not so fast, my friend”.

To be clear, I already have October 5^th, 2024 marked off on my calendar to make the drive up to Ben Hill Griffin to cover the reprise of the “Gus-parilla” in 2021. That victory in the Gasparilla Bowl at Raymond James Stadium did a lot to put the state of Florida and the nation on notice that UCF was a rising power in college football.

That being said, in the grand scheme of the 2024 schedule it’s just an exciting Saturday. Sure – it’ll mean more than New Hampshire and Sam Houston games in the year’s debut. But being more important than the latest in the tradition of two weeks of tune-ups at the start of a season under UCF head coach Gus Malzahn is hardly the highest bar to clear.

And as one who appreciates SEC football as the best in the sport, I get the hype of a team from that conference facing the Knights as a litmus test. But for those who may not know, Billy Napier is on the hot seat after two seasons of struggles with a fanbase and boosters that demand constant excellence.

Regardless of how reasonable that expectation is, the Gators’ brutal schedule may have them at 1-3 when UCF faces them. Conversely, the Knights will be at worst 2-2 headed into this game. The “UCF Mafia” will see this as a winnable game, but should they lose what exactly is the negative impact the program faces?

Being 2-3 with a 0-2 record in the conference as a worst-case scenario still keeps an eight-win season and bowl eligibility as likely possibilities as mid-season improvements have become a hallmark in the Malzhan era.

The Banneret’s own Jake Ferraro states, “A road win in an SEC stadium, with already a tough atmosphere, would be nationally impressive. . . “. I’m not so sure about that. . .

Anyone who has seen the Knights turn in an SEC victory of late will note the talking heads of the nation’s four-letter networks (or three letters counting FOX as well) will do everything to chop that achievement down.

Statements from “the Florida program is in rebuild” to “UCF was a ‘trap’ game that the Gators weren’t up for” will start flying everywhere just as they did when the Knights notoriously earned the top spot of the Colley Matrix beating Auburn in the Peach Bowl during the 2017 National Championship season or after the Gusparilla. The joke writes itself that a production featuring a panelist named “Booger” will do everything it can to sneeze at a victorious outcome for the Knights.

Also, UCF fans (members of the Black and Gold Banneret staff included) take a certain pride in being the team that gets a coach fired. What would be the national sentiment for the Gators should coach Napier be fired after starting the 2024 campaign 1-4 after a loss to a program that they still perceive to be a “little brother” in the state?

I’m not saying they’d be seen as hapless as Vanderbilt in the SEC, but the fall from grace in the eyes of the national media would only cheapen the value of the victory.

To be fair, if the Knights beat Colorado and TCU, the same dismissal of those victories would occur as both schools haven’t lived up to their hype (earned or not). The difference? — The weight of being an in-conference game still keeps UCF on track to the shortest path to achieve a College Football Playoff berth – a Big 12 Championship.

Now in a world where UCF is trying to go undefeated in an unlikely and miraculous 2024 scenario (where a quarterback in Malzahn’s tenure might last the entire season as a starter before getting injured) and the program is campaigning for a #4 seed for the CFP – MAYBE it matters more then.

Or maybe Black Friday has become just as important as it was in 2017? Maybe with a potential shot at a Conference Championship appearance, UCF has the opportunity to supplant a program in the Utah Utes under head coach Kyle Whittingham who has finished ranked in the Top 25 in six of the past 10 seasons to impress more people than they would have in a win over Florida?

Even if they lose in the Big 12 Championship game and need to sneak in as an at-large team, what looks better on a resume to a CFP committee member? A perennially-ranked Utah or a crumbling program that has benefited from the reputation of blueblood success brought by guys who are now sitting behind a desk on TV as analysts?