Five bold Buffalo Bills predictions ahead of 2024 NFL season

The 2024 version of the Buffalo Bills appears to be one of the most enigmatic NFL teams of this offseason so far. Plenty of specialists have them regressing after allowing several veterans to walk away, to the point of having the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins ahead in the battle for the AFC East.

Others trust that quarterback Josh Allen will be able to lead a questionable and untested supporting cast back to the playoffs for the sixth consecutive year, maybe even keeping the divisional crown. With the Bills’ training camp starting in a little more than two weeks, here are my top five bold predictions for the team in 2024.

Josh Allen will be crowned 2024 NFL MVP, McDermott NFL Coach of the Year

Allen winning the MVP award is long overdue — since 2020 he’s been in contention every year, putting up the numbers, the production, and his teams have competed for the top spot in the AFC playoffs seeding. Unfortunately, in the two years he was closer to getting the recognition, Aaron Rodgers was equally impressive in one opportunity, and in the latest one the voters couldn’t separate quarterback play from team success, it seems (nothing new here, that’s something we see all the time).

McDermott has led the Bills to winning seasons since before Allen’s ascension to one of the NFL’s premiere quarterbacks. After leading Buffalo to a drought-breaking campaign in 2017, with a team supposed to be “tanking,” and struggling financially after moving on from several bad contracts, McDermott was able to lead a rebuild and, after just one year, get the team ready for a run of four consecutive playoffs appearances — all of them with division titles.

Strange as it may be to say with Allen at quarterback, I believe Buffalo will surprise a lot of people in 2024. Despite the pessimism from several fans and specialists, they still have an in-his-prime Allen, the depth pieces, and a good young roster ready to buy in to McDermott’s “process.”

The same force that elevated the 2017 Bills to the playoffs, now with a true difference-maker at the quarterback position, should be able to elevate this year’s group to contender status. I have the Bills winning 12 games in 2024. Should they manage to win 13 and fight for the one seed in a stacked conference, there won’t be any excuses preventing Allen from being named NFL MVP, and the same goes for McDermott as the head coach of the year.

Kaiir Elam will finish the season as a starter

It’s taking longer than everybody hoped. Kaiir Elam was supposed to become Tre’Davious White’s long-term partner at the cornerback position, but the veteran isn’t even on the roster anymore and Elam still hasn’t been able to secure a starting role.

In cornerbacks Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford, the Bills have a very capable pair of starting cornerbacks. Douglas is a savvy veteran who excels in taking advantage of Buffalo’s zone-heavy schemes to read the opposing quarterback’s eyes and make plays on the ball. He has the size and physicality to succeed in McDermott and new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich’s defense.

Benford isn’t as experienced and doesn’t make as many game-changing plays as his veteran counterpart, but he shares the size and physicality and has been even more successful at denying opposing wide receivers the football.

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So, how is Elam supposed to emerge as a starting CB in 2024? Well, now as the main option off the bench, whenever one of the starters is nicked up, Elam should get playing time and opportunities to show that he’s ready for the spotlight. Benford and Douglas have had their injury issues and it’s hard to envision the pair going through all 18 regular-season weeks without needing some time to recover from minor injuries here and there.

Elam has shown some promise during OTAs and minicamp, making some plays against Josh Allen and the starting offense. With a new defensive coordinator and defensive backs coach in the building and the Bills trying to mix in more man coverage concepts on defense, the former first-round pick might be poised for a breakout season. He has the physical tools, including some that Buffalo’s pair of starters don’t possess. If Elam’s able to get his confidence level up, I believe the Bills can count on him as a starter when 2024 ends.

Von Miller will have a 10-plus sack season

A lot of people don’t have much hope for the future Hall of Famer in 2024, pointing to his pitiful 2023 season to justify the lack of faith. Miller is 35 years old and coming from, by far, his worst year as a pro. Father Time is undefeated and with the lack of recent production, it’s easy to understand why so many fans can’t count on him anymore.

Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images

With that said, I don’t agree with the naysayers. Miller was coming back from a devastating ACL injury and wanted to help his teammates so much that he forced an early comeback even though it was pretty clear he was far from ready. He certainly was cleared to play, but the confidence level in his knee was nowhere near the level it should be so he could focus just on his football preparation, instead of his health.

I can appreciate Miller for what he tried to do last season. The results weren’t what anyone expected, but he could have easily sat and waited for his body to feel 100% prepared again. Instead, he tried. Now, more than one year removed from the surgery, he’s finally been able to focus on his preparation for the season — and it’ll show. Miller looks strong and in shape, with a chip on his shoulder, wanting to prove the world wrong, and I love it.

Von Miller isn’t your regular 35-year-old athlete. He’s one of a kind, a beast physically, and he hasn’t forgotten his tricks to get after opposing quarterbacks. I’m pretty confident he’ll be back at a very good level in 2024, and he should still be the team’s go-to pass rusher when they need him the most. I’m betting on a comeback year for No. 40.

Connor McGovern will be an upgrade over Mitch Morse

Everybody’s worried about Mitch Morse leaving the team in 2024 — rightfully so, we’re talking about a long-time veteran who’s been extremely reliable over the years as the leader on the offensive line. A calm force in front of Josh Allen, Morse was a lock to make the right call and he played solid, dependable football for several seasons.

I totally understand the love for Morse — in fact from the players that left the team, he’s the one I believe has more left in the tank (if he can continue to avoid concussions like last year). However, it’s not like Morse had recently played at an All-Pro level. He’s been good but not great. He still showed his mobility and savviness, but he struggled when asked to anchor against powerful defensive tackles, and again, he’s basically one concussion away from having to reconsider his NFL career. That’s a bit scary for the money he was going to make with the team.

Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images

So, the Bills decided to move on with Connor McGovern moving from left guard to center. That’s something offensive line coach Aaron Kromer has been working on since last season, and it sounds more and more like it’s been the plan all along.

McGovern is extremely excited to be back in the pivot, a position he hasn’t played in a long time but where he feels his skillset can shine. There have been a lot of doubts from fans about his prospects there, even questioning his capabilities of holding promising rookie Sedrick Van Pran-Granger out of the starting lineup during training camp and preseason.

But what if McGovern really is a better fit at center? What if Kromer knows a thing or two about offensive linemen? (Spoiler alert: he does)

McGovern was impressive being moved around during his stint with the Dallas Cowboys. He was impressive as the full-time starting left guard with the Bills last season. He’s younger, stronger, and more athletic than Morse. I’m very curious to see him playing at his favorite position in 2024, and it won’t surprise me if he becomes an upgrade over Morse.

The Buffalo Bills will make it back to the Super Bowl

Don’t be fooled by past-their-prime veterans leaving the team — the Buffalo Bills are trending in the right direction. I know it’s hard to come away with positives following yet another loss in the playoffs against the Kansas City Chiefs, this time at home. I know it was supposed to be the Chiefs’ weakest team in the last few years. However, again, people love to be fooled by false narratives.

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Despite having a difficult season where several adjustments had to be made, the Chiefs played at their best when they needed it the most. By the start of the playoffs, rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice was pretty comfortable as the team’s WR1 and the second-most important target on the team behind tight end Travis Kelce.

Speaking of Kelce, it doesn’t matter if he had a rough season — when the playoffs arrived, he was back at his best. It doesn’t matter if Marquez Valdes-Scantling had some bad drops if, when Mahomes needed him the most, he made game-clinching catches against the Bills and then again facing the Baltimore Ravens. Their regular-season defensive rankings mattered not if, when they faced their playoffs opponents, they were prepared to throw different looks at teams and found ways to make the necessary stops to give Mahomes and the offense an advantage.

So, why am I mentioning any of it? Because despite all the difficulties, all the injuries, all the questions, the Bills were right there, almost beating the champs yet again. Yes, it’s frustrating to always see the Bills as “almost there,” but the truth is the team is close, just in need of some adjustments and some luck as well, especially regarding injuries, to go their way.

McDermott has struggled a lot over the year in the playoffs, but last season we could see some changes in his approach late in games, being more aggressive with his defensive calls and playing to win, instead of not to lose. Josh Allen has done more than enough to put the team in a Super Bowl, just needing more support from his teammates and coaches.

Unhappy players who haven’t contributed when the team needed them the most are gone. Also, the Bills have added several new pieces to the puzzle, young players with lots of potential.

Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

People are worried about several things going wrong, and they forget to realize this Bills team has a lot of things going right for it. As a former coach of mine used to preach — “The fear of losing takes away the will to win.” I believe this team is close. There should be an adjustment period, some growing pains, but a year with fewer expectations might be the perfect scenario for an even greater campaign.

If Buffalo finds health and luck on their side come playoff time, if McDermott continues to evolve, and some of those new pieces help Allen better than the former ones, the Bills might make it back to the Super Bowl. As for winning it? That’s a whole other story — we’re Bills Mafia after all.

Final thoughts

I understand that “Fernando, you’re a homer and blah blah blah” has at times echoed about here. That sentiment doesn’t bother me, since I aspire to be optimistic. Believe me, I can be pretty pessimistic about the Bills and, in fact, there were several cases in the past where I couldn’t buy in — “Fitz is the answer!” or “this Bills roster is stacked!” — recently. I just never bought it. However, I believe in plenty of people at One Bills Drive right now, and that’s why I’m so positive for this year’s team. Time will tell if it’s deserved.

So those are my five bold predictions, my fellow Rumblers. Let me know which ones you can see happening, which are too far-fetched, and of course be sure to share yours as well!

Catch up with all this and more within my latest edition of Leading the Charge!