Fantasy football breakout running backs: Zamir White, Kendre Miller and more Jake Ciely picks

Last year’s breakout running backs were about as good as they can get. Predicting breakouts will never hit 100% of the time, and there have been some down years, but a collection of Rachaad White, James Cook and Jerome Ford in a list of five is pretty, pretty, pretty good. I’d love to have similar success this year, and there are some interesting names for the 2024 fantasy football season. As a reminder, I stay away from running backs who have broken out in some way — for example, Brian Robinson as the RB17 in FPPG last year — and rookies. Here are my Top 5 breakout RBs for 2024, starting with a fairly obvious one, but finishing with a deep flier.

ROOKIES AND BROKE OUT ALREADY

• Blake Corum, LAR; Jonathon Brooks, CAR; et al rookies — As mentioned yearly, I believe in the “nothing to break out from” argument for rookies not being “breakouts.” I don’t mind if you do, as it’s not a hill I want to die on… it’s just why I don’t include the rookies. Corum and Brooks would be the favorites given the potential opportunity for Corum, with Kyren Williams nursing an offseason injury, and Brooks, given his talent. Trey Benson is in a great spot with the annually-injured James Conner in front of him, and then there are a few deeper options such as Kimani Vidal and Tyrone Tracy.
• De’Von Achane, MIA — Only three running backs had more FPPG than Achane — Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams and his teammate, Raheem Mostert. Outside of playing a full season, there isn’t much room left for Achane, who was RB24 despite playing just 11 games and handling 130 touches. So, yes, overall Achane could break out and be a Top 10 RB, but it could be difficult to eclipse his 16.3 FPPG.
• Jerome Ford, CLE — Ford was part of last year’s list and is still underrated in early 2024 drafts. He filled in for Nick Chubb and finished RB17 with 11.1 FPPG. Chubb is not guaranteed to be ready, or even 100%, come Week 1, which makes Ford a nice value at his cost. However, it’s also unlikely that Ford will do much better over a full season, even if Chubb doesn’t play a snap. Ford had a rushing line of 204-813-4 and 44-319-5 receiving, and Chubb or not, just repeating those numbers would be a terrific success.

TOP 5 BREAKOUT RUNNING BACKS

1. Zamir White, LV — After his 2023 finish and the Raiders’ offseason — bringing in Alexander Mattison and Dylan Laube — White is the prohibitive favorite for the biggest running back breakout. White had a line of 84-397-1 on the ground and 9-60-0 on 13 targets over the final four weeks. That’s 4.7 YPC, an average of 23.3 touches per game and 14.1 FPPG, which would have tied White with Rachaad White and Joe Mixon for RB13. Of course, risks are plenty — Raiders offense (QB situation), White’s limited ceiling in the passing game, and Mattison siphoning some of the work and/or pushing White for the role if White struggles.

Nevertheless, White will get the first crack, and head coach Antonio Pierce is team “bellcow.” Even if White never touches the ball as a receiver, repeating that rushing workload would put him at 357 carries for a full season. Projecting his four-game sample over 17 games can be admittedly dangerous. We’re looking for breakouts though, and if Pierce trusts White as his clear lead, 250 carries would be a near-lock and 20-30 receptions would be in play. Even at 4.0 YPC and 6.5 YPR, that would have White eclipsing 1,100 yards and being a terrific breakout… likely the biggest one we’ll see.

2. Tyjae Spears, TEN — Spears’ skillset is in the Austin Ekeler mold, and while I wouldn’t go as far as to claim his ceiling is the best of Ekeler, I also wouldn’t say Spears can’t be the most valuable Titans running back. Spears had just 100 rushes as a rookie, but he managed 4.5 YPC while adding a line of 52-385-1 receiving on 70 targets. In fact, Spears looked better than Derrick Henry at times, averaging more YPC (4.5 to 4.2), finishing close in YPR (7.4 to 7.6) and not far behind in rushing YAC (3.15 to 3.32). For comparison, Tony Pollard had 4.0 YPC, 5.7 YPR and 2.92 rushing YAC. Plus, we know about Pollard’s goal-line struggles with just 17.6 TD% on his GL attempts (Spears had 33.3%).

This is not to say Spears is the clear lead, or that Pollard couldn’t see 60% of the work to 40% for Spears, keeping him in the same role as last year. This is saying that Spears has the ability and potential to finish as a consistent RB3 in a timeshare and reach the Top 20 if Pollard struggles and Spears grows in his second season.

3. Kendre Miller, NO — During last year’s draft, I compared Miller to Jamaal Williams, which made the Saints’ draft pick a bit curious since they had signed Williams in free agency. To put it lightly, Williams had a drop-off from 2022, not only with zero touchdowns until his final chance, but with a woeful 2.9 YPC. Miller only had 51 touches as a rookie, with 10 of those being receptions on 11 targets. Similar to Williams, Miller struggled to get much traction via the rush — 3.8 YPC.

On the positive side, Miller had 11.7 YPR and returned from injury in Week 18 to post his best game with a 13-73-1 line  on the ground. Additionally, Miller’s touchdown came from his vision, seeing the pitch-run sniffed out by the defense, then cutting back up the middle to extend for the score. Miller’s vision was seen as a plus in college, and his patience and build to carry a heavy load further improve his chances of carving out a timeshare with Alvin Kamara. In fact, Miller’s ceiling is as the power lead of a timeshare with Damien Harris/David Montgomery/Jamaal Williams-like production, putting him in the RB2 group — if the lead option.

4. Chase Brown, CIN — Zack Moss turns 27 in December, even though it sounds crazy. And, yes, he’s been quite good when given the opportunity. Moss isn’t without flaws, having six of his 15 career games with 13+ carries go for 3.89 YPC or fewer (three of 3.17 or lower). He’s also a decent, but not great, option in the passing game, and his short career has been filled with injuries.

To be fair, Brown isn’t an “elite” running back talent either, but he does possess nice speed to the edge and receiving upside. My pre-draft comparison last year was Matt Breida, and while that doesn’t make you fall out of your chair, Brown did have 44-179-0 rushing (4.1 YPC) and 14-156-1 receiving (11.1 YPR and 15 targets) as a rookie. The dump-off pass — where Brown took it for a 54-yard score against the Colts — showed his sneaky speed too. Brown’s talent and a potential timeshare with more receiving work than Moss already has Brown in the breakout camp. If Moss misses time, a breakout is a near lock, with Top 20 value more than attainable.

5. Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN — McLaughlin has the most competition of anyone on this list, with Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine and rookie Audric Estime in the mix. Williams struggled in his return from injury, averaging just 3.6 YPC and often looking nothing like his pre-injury self. Perine has looked good at times, filling in for Joe Mixon with the Bengals, and then mixing in with the Broncos last year. In fact, Perine had a career-best YPR of 9.1 last year. Estime is a powerful back, and his addition makes things complicated, but there is a path to McLaughlin leading — both in the backfield hierarchy and in fantasy value.

McLaughlin has a cut-and-go style with nice speed and elusiveness, all of which shows up in the passing game as well, though his inconsistent vision and blocking are the concerns. He led the Broncos in YPC last year with a 5.4 mark, and his game against the Bears included several elusive runs and a nice touchdown reception, which flashed his patience in the open field too. The competition for touches isn’t the only concern, as even if McLaughlin was in a two-man timeshare, he might not get much goal-line work. Still, if you told me McLaughlin only had one other running back to deal with, he’d rank higher on this list, as you can argue he’s the most explosive option on the Broncos and carries an RB2 ceiling.

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