Exploding wide receiver market has created two distinct paths for NFL teams

NFL

By Ryan Dunleavy

In today’s NFL, $28.4 million can either buy you one year of Jaylen Waddle and some new footballs to throw to him, or the entire Giants receiving corps. 

The Dolphins’ Waddle, Eagles’ A.J. Brown and Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown all have signed extensions this offseason worth at least $28.25 million per year. New deals in the future for the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson and the Bengals’ duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are expected to exceed that threshold. 

An exploding second-contract market for receivers — teams are spending an average of $33.7 million per year (13.1 percent of the salary cap) on the position in 2024 as compared to $12.7 million per year (9.4 percent of the cap) in 2014, according to OverTheCap.com — has created a system where you either break the bank on proven producers or roll the dice in the draft. 

Giants general manager Joe Schoen has favored the latter option in addressing arguably the roster’s greatest weakness when he was hired. Schoen used a top-75 pick in each of his first three draft classes on a receiver — 2022 second-rounder Wan’Dale Robinson, 2023 third-rounder Jalin Hyatt and 2024 first-rounder Malik Nabers. 

“You see where the wave is going,” said Brandon Brown, Schoen’s top lieutenant. “We’ve talked over the years about projecting the market … and you don’t want to be on the wrong end of deals. I think, when you look at how young our receiver corps is, it’s an advantageous position to be in. Just the production, opportunity and the skill set all allows for you to be cost-controlled.” 

The Giants, who only have one receiver remaining (Darius Slayton) from the 10 who caught passes in 2021, rank No. 20 in the league in receiver spending ($28.4 million per year on current contracts), per spotrac.com. 

Of course, Waddle, Brown and St. Brown all average at least 1,125 yards per season in their careers. Robinson, Hyatt and the rookie Nabers have a combined 1,125 yards in 38 career games, so the Giants don’t know yet whether they have drafted cost-effective solutions or just low-cost youngsters. 

“The way that we’ve built it — almost like a basketball team — there’s complementary parts,” Brown said. “You have a point guard, a shooting guard, a small forward. There aren’t duplicative roles right now. You have a lot of guys that can do different things, but they are specialists in something the other guy really doesn’t excel at.” 

Here are three thoughts on three other things happening around the NFL: 

1. The next three quarterbacks due for contract extensions in the $50 million per year range are the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence, Packers’ Jordan Love and Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa. 

Have any of the three done enough to warrant being paid like a top-eight quarterback? Or are those payments to be made mostly for the peace of mind of not ending up with a worse replacement — repeating what the Giants did with Daniel Jones’ four-year, $160 million contract? 

It’s hard not to wonder if the win-now Dolphins particularly might be better off letting Tagovailoa play out his walk-year and making a run at free-agent-to-be Dak Prescott in 2025. Career QB ratings: Prescott (99), Tagovailoa (97.1) Love (94) and Lawrence (85). 

Betting that Prescott ultimately will leave the Cowboys is a risk: Matt Ryan’s Falcons career ended because of the bad blood that a similar failed pursuit (Deshaun Watson) created. 

But executives have long wondered what team in what year might have the guts not to re-sign its middling quarterback just because he is theirs. 

2. Let’s recap the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs’ offseason beyond just Harrison Butker’s headlines-dominating sexist and homophobic remarks at a college graduation: Four players — Isaiah Buggs (second-degree animal cruelty), offensive linemen Wayna Morris and Chukwuebuka Godrick (misdemeanor marijuana possession), and receiver Rashee Rice (aggravated assault after a high-speed car crash) — have been arrested. 

Before the games start again and Patrick Mahomes’ greatness, Travis Kelce’s love life and weekly wins wash all else away, it should not be lost that head coach Andy Reid has two résumés to consider — a career-long willingness to take character chances on talented players that other teams avoid is tied into both marks. 

Reid is 258-144-1 as the NFL’s fourth-winningest head coach of all-time. 

The Chiefs also have had at least 18 player arrests during Reid’s 12 years — not including Kareem Hunt’s videotaped assault of a woman that led to an eight-game NFL suspension or Reid’s son/assistant coach Britt’s DWI with serious bodily harm charge — on top of the Eagles having at least 12 during Reid’s 14-year tenure, according to a USA Today database. 

Reid offered only a cursory response when asked about his advising his underlings to make smart decisions. 

“You can communicate with them before they leave, make sure they take care of business,” Reid said. “Sometimes things happen, and then you’ve got to work through that.” 

3. In 19 of the past 21 NFL seasons, at least one team has gone from worst to first in its division. 

Here is how we rank the likelihood of a seismic turnaround by the eight candidates in 2024: 1. Bengals; 2. Bears; 3. Commanders; 4. Titans; 5. Chargers; 6. Panthers; 7. Cardinals; 8. Patriots. 

In short, Joe Burrow is back for the Bengals, the Bears had maybe the NFL’s best offseason, the Chargers and Cardinals live alongside defending conference champions, and the Patriots might be drafting No. 1 overall in 2025.