ESPN names Seahawks among best teams in under-25 talent

I was enjoying a quiet respite from the social obligations that come with the presence of extended family, and reading over the recent (paywalled) article from ESPN’s Aaron Schatz ranking each team based on their players under 25 years of age. Before finishing the first paragraph I noticed my brow had already begun furrowing in anticipation of the same gross miscarriage of justice and blatant disrespect I’d grown accustomed to from the national media as a Seattle Seahawks fan.

First thing of note was this outline of the methodology they used when making judgements, and I have to admit, it’s somewhat difficult to disagree with, though I do feel that their methodology leaves much up to interpretation, which I’ll touch on at the end.

Methodology

As is our standard, we have created these rankings based on a combination of factors:

• Number of starts made by players under 25 years old
• Number of snaps played by players under 25 years old
• Quality of play of players under 25 years old, age-adjusted to capture the fact that a 21-year-old player of X ability will likely improve more than a 23-year-old player of X ability — and with extra consideration given to Pro Bowl and All-Pro selections
• Value and length of player contracts
• Relative importance of positions, in particular with quarterbacks being more important and running backs, off-ball linebackers and specialists being less important than other positions
• Draft value added in the 2024 draft
• Expected key starters and reserves under 25 years old for teams in 2024
• Significant injuries or suspensions that will affect the 2024 availability of players under 25 years old

I will start by saying that their determination of the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions at No. 1 and No. 2 respectively, is spot on. The Texans were able to build something truly impressive last year by being ultra-aggressive in the first round of the draft, snagging CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr., while the Lions, similarly, have absolutely maximized the value of their draft picks over the last couple seasons. Both teams look well-situated to be playoff contenders for years to come.

Moving on, I was rather ambivalent about the No. 10 spot they gave the Seahawks. On one hand, while it notes Devon Witherspoon and Charles Cross as our blue chip players, the exclusion of Kenneth Walker III and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, in my opinion, calls into question not only the legitimacy of the article, but the entire Disney conglomerate. I joke, but Kenneth Walker III has eclipsed 1200 scrimmage yards and scored 9 times in each of his two seasons in the league, despite shoddy play from the offensive line. He also possesses a home run hitting ability that forces writers to employ terminology from other sports and leaves opposing defenders looking silly as they attempt to wrap up on a cartoonish cloud of smoke. I understand their methodology puts less importance on the running back position, but not unlike the running back free agency market of today, there seems to be an over-emphasis on the abundance of humans at that position, rather than the value that some of those humans provide from that position.

Then there’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the consensus top wide receiver from the 2023 draft. Overcoming a slow start, he began building momentum as his rookie season progressed, hauling in a respectable, albeit underachieving, 628 yards and 4 touchdowns, 2 of which were game winning touchdowns against the Cleveland Browns and Philadelphia Eagles. There was also one of the more electric one-handed catches I’ve ever witnessed, against the Santa Clara 49ers on Thanksgiving. Without a doubt, Jaxon Smith-Nijgba has the makings of a blue chip playmaker, and I expect a substantial increase in his numbers across the board in 2024.

Between Kenneth Walker III, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Devon Witherspoon, and Charles Cross, No. 10 feels like this team is being underrated. On the other hand, however, the questions that remain about some of our other young guys are valid. Most notably, center Olu Oluwatimi, guard Anthony Bradford, and rookie guard Christian Haynes are each under 25 years old and given the state of the offensive line, they’re all due for extended minutes this season. I think Olu Oluwatimi played well in his rookie season while filling in for Evan Brown, and in my opinion, would be among the least surprising players to see rising to the occasion this season. Meanwhile, I think the competition between Anthony Bradford and Christian Haynes, and an added emphasis from the coaching staff on developing our offensive line, should serve well to bring the best out of these two, as well as raise the floor of the offense as a whole. The simple truth is though, none of these guys are expected by the national media to be better than average, so we’ll need to see that development first-hand before we can comfortably look for these guys to bump up our ranking.

I did appreciate ESPN retroactively ranking the 2023 rosters, in a way, acknowledging some of the players that exceeded expectations to have a big impact last season. Assuming they rewrite their article for the 2025 season, I anticipate a few Seahawks carrying a bit more weight, but none more than Byron Murphy II, whom I expect to be an immediate contributor and considered amongst our blue chip talent.

Ultimately, No. 10 seems like a fair ranking, though I can find valid arguments to rank this group as high as No. 5 using the same subjective and hypothetical methodology they used in the ESPN article, which brings me to my only real gripe about the any of it; Though it’s admirable for them to define the methodology used to determine and justify the rankings, factors like “quality of play adjusted for age” and “draft value added in 2024” leave room for interpretation and subjectivity, and the “value and length of contract” factor is fundamentally flawed as it implies that a late round standout should outweigh the value of a first round pick who played equally well. Finally, without the quantifiable definition of positional value, “relative positional importance” means nothing more than quarterbacks and edge rushers above all. With all of that said, it should be stated that there is no scientific nor mathematical basis to ESPN’s methodology.

Bearing that in mind, I propose the addition of a single new factor for which each team’s under-25 talent is ranked. If we factor in overall vibes and run all the same data through the updated algorithm, we see an entirely new result. Coming in at No. 1, unsurprisingly, are the Seattle Seahawks.