Elections Canada blame 84-name ballot for delayed Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection results

Hours after the polls closed in the highly anticipated Toronto-St. Paul’s by-election there were still no clear results as a nearly metre-long ballot was blamed for a slower than usual count.

Elections Canada had warned the public that the result in the midtown Toronto riding could take longer than usual because of the complicated ballot. With 84 candidates on the ticket, the federal elections agency had to implement a two-column ballot to accommodate the record number of names.

The riding is a Liberal stronghold that has turned from a reliable win into an all-hands-on-deck push to the finish for the incumbent party as it fights against low national polling numbers, insufficient fundraising and an electorate hungry for change. Despite the headwinds, Liberals were still expecting to eke out a win and the Conservatives were heavily playing down expectations, noting that even in the Liberals’ worst election result in 2011, they still won Toronto-St. Paul’s.

As of 10:30 p.m., Liberal candidate Leslie Church had 1,552 votes, Conservative candidate Don Stewart had 1,165 votes and NDP candidate Amrit Parhar had 406 votes.

A protest group called the Longest Ballot Committee stacked the ballot with names to make a point about the first-past-the-post system being unfair. It has conducted similar protests in by-elections in Winnipeg a year ago and Mississauga in 2022.

Typically, by-elections have much lower turnout than general elections, but 10,787 people voted in advance polls. In the 2021 general election, 53,698 votes were cast in total.

Until last year, the riding was represented by Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett, who has held the seat since 1997 and in the most recent election won with a 24-point margin over the second-place Conservatives.

This election is widely viewed as a referendum on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who, despite poor polling, has been adamant that he will lead the Liberals into next year’s federal election.

Prior to Monday’s results, Jenni Byrne, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s top advisor, predicted another Liberal win. But she said a drop in the Liberal vote share could spell trouble for the party in other ridings in the Greater Toronto Area in the next general election, such as Eglinton-Lawrence, held by former public safety minister Marco Mendicino.

“This is an extremely safe Liberal seat,” she told CBC in an on-air interview, adding, “You’re going to see that we’ve done better than what we have in the past.”

Ms. Church is a long-time Liberal operative and staffer and most recently served as Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s chief of staff. Mr. Stewart has worked in marketing and finance and previously worked for Ms. Byrne. Ms. Parhar is a community organizer and director at a non-profit.

Before 1993, the riding swung between the Liberals and Conservatives. In Monday’s by-election, the challenges facing the Liberals were amplified by issues such as affordability, Israel’s war with Hamas, and the recent capital-gains tax hike, which have a more pronounced impact on people in the area. In response to the uphill battle, the Liberals sent a revolving door of cabinet ministers, MPs and Parliament Hill staffers to door-knock and work the phones.

The riding is known for its wealthy neighbourhoods, such as Cedarvale, Forest Hill and Wychwood Park – which feature large homes with sweeping manicured lawns. But the main thoroughfares are lined with small businesses, apartment buildings and condos, and the majority of households are renters. Statistics Canada data from 2020 show a significant income divide in the riding, with 41 per cent of people there making less than $40,000 and 43 per cent making $100,000 or more.

Affordability concerns were among the top issues on the doorstep, both Ms. Church and Ms. Parhar said in interviews with The Globe and Mail last week. Mr. Poilievre’s party has made affordability a key focus in its opposition to the Liberals, but in Toronto-St. Paul’s, the Conservatives were also hoping that anger among Jewish communities at Ottawa’s response to the Israel-Hamas war would give them a leg up in the riding, which is 15 per cent Jewish.

The Tories circulated a letter directed at Jewish households in the riding accusing the Prime Minister of “silence” on a rise in “Jew hatred” since the Israel-Hamas war began last fall and urged those households to send a message to the Liberals by voting Conservative.

With reports from Laura Stone and The Canadian Press