Early Belmont fair odds: Fade the classic winners

A Belmont Stakes featuring the winners of the Kentucky Derby, Oaks and Preakness Stakes would be good not only for horse racing but also for the wallet.

The presence of Mystik Dan, Thorpedo Anna and Seize the Grey, respectively, would be sure to attract viewers and wagering dollars, and that in turn means more generous prices on Fierceness and Sierra Leone, the top two betting choices in the Kentucky Derby who finished 15th and second, respectively.

I have no idea who will be favored between the two. Logically I guess it has to be Sierra Leone off that runner-up finish, a nose behind Mystik Dan and a nose ahead of Forever Young. But his performance and Fierceness’s clunker do not change the fact that Fierceness has run the best races of anyone in this group and is one of only two multiple Grade 1 winners among 3-year-old males. The other is scratched Preakness morning-line favorite Muth, whom Fierceness beat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

I give a slight edge to Fierceness because of the shorter field, but the reality is if either was a clear favorite then I’d have no problem leaning on the other.

It is no secret that I did not like Seize the Grey in the Preakness. My fair odds gave him a 1.3 percent chance to win the race, and it was pretty much over at the jump when it was clear Seize the Grey had Imagination measured.

What is fascinating to me is that Seize the Grey is likely a bigger price in the Belmont Stakes off a win in the Preakness. Just thinking about how horses like Fierceness and Sierra Leone will be bet, combined with the possible presence of the Kentucky Oaks and Derby winners, it is hard to see Seize the Grey being less than 10-1, and that is without even considering pace dynamics.

The Belmont Stakes looks to put a bold punctuation mark on what has been a great Triple Crown series already.