Duhatschek mailbag, part 1: Next round of NHL expansion, Markstrom vs. Ullmark and more

Thanks to so many of you for submitting questions to our July reader mailbag. There were a few inquiries I wanted to do some additional reporting on, so those will spill into part 2 of the mailbag, which will publish next week. I’ll also reference a couple of specific topics raised by readers — especially as they relate to the NHL teams that operate in no or low-tax states — in next Friday’s NHL notebook. For now, let’s dig in on some team-specific queries.

(Note: Some questions are edited for length and clarity.)

As a Devils fan, I would’ve preferred acquiring Linus Ullmark over Jacob Markstrom, simply because of age and recent track record, not to mention I think he could’ve been acquired for less (although who knows if Ullmark would’ve accepted a trade to Jersey). Can you make the case that Fitzgerald acquired the better goalie for me and why would that be? — Mike S.

Yes, I think I can. But let’s start with the New Jersey Devils, and why they made Markstrom their first target over all the other available goaltending talent that went on the market this summer. New Jersey had the third-worst team save percentage (.886) in the league last season, better only than the Ottawa Senators and Philadelphia Flyers. Most of that was the result of subpar goaltending, but part of it was a leaky overall defensive play that was undermined by Dougie Hamilton’s absence for much of the year and the fact they were integrating two talented but raw kids, Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec. Nothing makes life easier for young inexperienced defensemen than goalies who stop the puck in high-danger areas. And that was Markstrom’s calling card last year.

NHL Edge statistics had Markstrom tops in the league in high-danger save percentage (.857) and tied for fifth in high-danger saves. And that came playing for a Calgary team that ultimately traded away three of its top-six defensemen (Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev and Nikita Zadorov). More than any other individual player, it was Markstrom who kept the Flames competitive until the final month.

Ullmark, meanwhile, benefited from being in just the opposite situation, playing for a defensively sound Boston Bruins team that cumulatively over the past two seasons had the best record in the NHL. Ullmark produced a decent high-danger save percentage (.822) but he was not at Markstrom’s level.

Beyond that, though, I also see Markstrom as more of a true No. 1 goalie. He is a workhorse who, assuming he can stay healthy, will play 60 games or more for the Devils, something he’s done three different times in his career. In a fourth year, he played 59 games. Ullmark, by contrast, has a career single-season high of 49 games played. After that, it drops to 41 games. So he’s more of a rotational 1A/1B option.

Markstrom is only two seasons removed from a year in which he posted a 2.22 GAA and .922 save percentage for a pretty good Calgary team. I see him fully capable of matching those numbers for an improving Devils team.

Goalies who were traded this summer moved at a discount in my view. Getting Markstrom for Kevin Bahl and a top-10 protected 2025 draft choice isn’t much different than what Boston got from Ottawa for Ullmark. Both represent good value to their new teams. People are always looking for bold preseason predictions this time of year and one of mine is that Markstrom wins the Vezina next year. Let’s see how that plays out.

With Meruelo out in Arizona, what does this mean for potential expansion? Does the NHL want it? When? Would probably need to be 2 teams joining together, so what markets are the most likely at this moment? — Andrew #.

Officially, the NHL’s standard response on expansion is they’re not considering it imminently, but they are always willing to listen to entrepreneurs wishing to invest in their business. The recent transaction that saw Utah HC pay $1.2 billion to enter the league is staggering when you think Seattle paid $650 million only three seasons ago and the cost to Vegas was $500 million in 2017. But to answer your specific question, I do believe the NHL wants to come back to Arizona, but only when there’s a) a viable building in place, ready for occupancy, and b) an ownership group willing to pay something in that $1.2 billion range as an expansion fee.

I think the NHL is going to let the dust settle a little in the short term, carry on with 32 teams for at least two more seasons and then begin a process that will ultimately get them up to 36 teams. Modelled, in other words, after the 1998-2000 expansion that brought in Nashville, Columbus, Atlanta and Minnesota. Atlanta — third time lucky? — and Houston will likely be teams 33 and 34. Could Arizona be No. 35? If someone has the financial wherewithal to back a bid, without a doubt. Remember, commissioner Gary Bettman worked so hard at keeping the Coyotes in Phoenix for decades. He would like nothing better than to eventually have the last word and prove that his vision for Arizona (and that it could be a viable NHL market) was right all along.

Has the Ted Lasso effect made its way into any NHL coaching staffs? I’ve noticed a few NFL coaches quote him or take a softer approach since the show came out. — Eric F.

What is your evaluation of Greg Cronin’s first year as Ducks coach, and improvements you want him to make with the Ducks’ new assistants? — Sprenticejr

I grouped these two questions together because the most Ted Lasso-like of all the recent NHL coaches was arguably Dallas Eakins, who was behind the Anaheim Ducks bench for four seasons before being let go by Ducks GM Pat Verbeek at the end of 2022-23 in favor of Cronin. The Ducks finished dead last in the final year under Eakins, though he did coax 65 points out of Trevor Zegras and 61 from Troy Terry (in 70 games) and looked as if he had Mason McTavish trending in the right direction. All three — who looked like integral members of their young core — took backward steps last year. Cronin was hired to be the opposite of Eakins; to instill discipline, structure and accountability — all the buzzwords to describe a coach who takes a hardline approach. Not all of the team’s players embraced that, which may account for the two changes on Cronin’s staff announced earlier this week. They brought in Rich Clune, from Toronto’s AHL affiliate, and brought back Tim Army,  previously an assistant coach in the Ducks’ organization back in the beginning (1993-97), both of whom have reputations as player-friendly coaches.

If you listen carefully to the messaging from Verbeek at season’s end, it sounded as if the Ducks understood that Cronin might need to soften the message a tad going forward or risk alienating some of the team’s most talented young players.

As for the macro question about the Ted Lasso effect, I would say, philosophically, over time, that has been happening for decades now. I ran into Terry Crisp at a Calgary Flames reunion last month. Even when he was coaching in the NHL, Crisp had a favorite anecdote that he used to spin to illustrate how players had changed over time. In his day, Crisp said, if a coach said he wanted you to go through a wall for him, you did it unquestioningly. By contrast, the modern player would stop and ask why and then assess the situation and wonder if it might be smarter to go around the wall or over it rather than through it. So, a pushback from players that might not have existed in the 1970s or before when Crisp played, but has gradually filtered into the NHL for decades now.

The other thing I would say is nowadays, NHL coaches need to be more multifaceted than ever before. You need to be one part tactician, one part psychologist, one part disciplinarian and one part comedian (to keep things light when dark times hit). It’s a complicated tight-rope act, something that coaches such as Florida’s Paul Maurice and Tampa Bay’s Jon Cooper have figured out. Just being good with the X’s and O’s doesn’t get it done anymore.

Now that the Sharks have signed Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith, they are assigning major responsibilities to an 18-year-old and a 19-year-old this season playing center. What other teams in history have done something similar and how did it work out? — Mark D.

It’s a good question because there are a handful of teams that have done something similar, but nothing that I can remember as completely identical, especially if both end up playing center right away (which isn’t guaranteed).

The feeling is Smith might start on the wing on a line with Mikael Granlund and William Eklund. If so, that would closely parallel what Chicago did in 2007-08, when Jonathan Toews (a center) played a year of college hockey at North Dakota after being drafted No. 3 in 2006 and turned pro the same year Patrick Kane (a winger) did after going No. 1 in 2007. That, as you know, worked out quite well.

Other examples of teams that turned their future one-two pros together closely are Pittsburgh (Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin) and Edmonton (Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl).

In Pittsburgh’s case, Crosby turned pro in 2005 after going No. 1 in the draft, while Malkin, who was No. 2 in 2004, stayed in Russia an extra year and debuted in 2006. So, a year apart.

Edmonton is different again. Draisaitl turned pro right away in 2014 after going No. 3 in that draft but ultimately was returned to junior midway through his first NHL season. McDavid was No. 1 in 2015 and played right away. In 2015, Draisaitl had a six-game cameo in AHL Bakersfield early in McDavid’s rookie season, came back to the NHL and quickly found his stride.

No. 1 pick Macklin Celebrini signed his entry-level contract with the Sharks earlier this month. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

If you really want to stretch the timeline further, you could also reference the Quebec Nordiques who turned Joe Sakic pro in 1988 and Mats Sundin in 1990 — or more recently, to the Devils, who had the No. 1 pick in both 2017 and 2019 and immediately turned Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes pro. Hischier had a decent first year and Hughes struggled, but both are on their way to NHL stardom.

Presumably, the hope here is they’re not unduly rushing Celebrini and Smith to the NHL. The evidence of the aforementioned players suggests they’ll both be fine in the end if surrounded by the proper supporting cast, though there’ll be the inevitable learning curve early on.

Which of the following players would be best suited for the Habs’ 2nd line, given their needs and where they are in the stage of their rebuild: Trevor Zegras, Martin Necas, Kaapo Kakko, or Kent Johnson? Which player is the most realistic acquisition? — Jeff S.

To the first part of the question — who is best suited to play a second-line role in Montreal — among the quartet cited, I’m picking Johnson. But let’s preface that by noting it’s a disparate group whose main commonality is they were all relatively high draft choices who have had some ups and downs thus far in their professional careers. Necas went No. 12 in 2017, Kakko No. 2 in 2019, Zegras No. 9 in 2019 and Johnson No. 5 in 2021.

Among that group, Johnson has the highest draft pedigree, is the youngest of the four, and scored 40 points for the Blue Jackets as a 20-year-old before a dismal season a year ago. I see him as having the greatest upside to be a legitimate top-six forward. As Montreal’s rebuild continues, he will fit better with their nucleus than the other three, even if Zegras is probably the most skilled. Like Johnson, he struggled last season, but before then, he produced back-to-back 60-point seasons as a 21- and 22-year-old.

Kakko probably isn’t going to ever be a top-six forward, so he’s disqualified. And Necas is 25, with only one eye-catching season under his belt — 71 points in 82 games two years ago. The others still have runway; I’m not sure how much better Necas is going to get.

Now the second part of the question — which player acquisition is most realistic — is a different story altogether. For starters, I can’t see the new Columbus regime parting with Johnson. They’ll want to give him an opportunity to get back on track with a new coach. Trading him now would be selling low on a player still in the formative stages of his developmental years. The Canadiens and the Ducks have talked about Zegras and can’t seem to find any common ground, presumably because the Ducks also have no interest in selling low on Zegras at this point. That could change but if they continue to dig in, he won’t be an option. Necas probably will move this offseason. I expect Carolina will want a blue-chip defenseman for him, given the recent exodus of Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei. I wouldn’t do it for an A to A-plus prospect. Kakko is probably the easiest of the four to acquire, but you’d have to have scouts in your organization who see something in him that a succession of New York Rangers coaches hasn’t to date. Maybe he is an Artturi Lehkonen-type waiting to break out if given the circumstances.

The Hurricanes lost their second defense pairing and two top-six forwards in Teuvo and Guentzel. Father Time is looming over Brent Burns. How likely are they to seriously regress? — Matthew T.

It depends on how you define a serious regress — 10 standing points or more? — but yes, I do see them going backward next season. Let’s begin by noting the Hurricanes have been a model of consistency over the past four years, finishing third in the league three times in that span and second the other time. In the past three seasons, they have slightly gone backward each year (from 116 points to 113 to 111 last year). That’s still exceptional by NHL standards. Jake Guentzel was a rental — they put up those excellent seasons mostly without him — and Teravainen was a steady 53-point player in under 17 minutes of ice time per night last year — useful but not earth-shattering, either.

The top line of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis is still fine. The problem is, how much will you get out of the mercurial Evgeny Kuznetsov, along with newly signed Jack Roslovic and either Necas or whoever you get in trade for Necas? Jack Drury needs to get a bigger role and maybe Jesperi Kotkaniemi needs a new home or an opportunity to play more impactful minutes. I personally would be trying to trade Kotkaniemi to Calgary because the Flames suddenly have the most salary-cap space of any team in the league and can use help down the middle. But overall, the biggest drop-off is on defense, where Sean Walker and Shayne Gostisbehere are simply not in Pesce and Skjei’s class. Now, Rod Brind’Amour is an exceptional coach and will get them to the playoffs again. But they’ve been an elite team for four years. On paper, they are not an elite team right now.

(Top photo of the Coyotes’ final game: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)