Division rankings: This Belmont duo is tough to root against

The Triple Crown season will culminate this weekend with the
156th running of the Belmont Stakes in New York. Typically held at Belmont Park
on Long Island, close to my birthplace, this year’s race will be relocated because of renovations at Belmont Park.

Consequently, the Belmont Stakes will be
shortened to 10 furlongs, down from its usual 12, until it returns to its
original venue in 2026. This renovation project also includes the permanent
closure of yet another racetrack in this country, Aqueduct in
Jamaica, N.Y.

In recent years, the Belmont Stakes has drawn the most
diverse field of all the Triple Crown races, largely because of its unusual 12-furlong distance, a rarity on dirt tracks today.

This year’s Belmont Stakes is particularly strong, which I
attribute to two factors: the shortened distance of 10 furlongs and the refreshing
return to old-school training methods by two trainers who defy the modern
approach of racing top horses only every six weeks or so.

Before diving into the Belmont Stakes and the two horses
that most old-school fans like myself will root for this weekend, Mystik Dan
and Seize the Grey, let’s first take a look at this week’s updated division
rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Señor Buscador. Despite finishing third in the Dubai World Cup (G1) in his most recent outing, Señor Buscador retains his no. 1 spot. His record this year thus far as been good, winning the Saudi Cup (G1) before his Dubai appearance. He kicked off the season with a close second-place finish to National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in January. The focus now will be on preparing for the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar in late August, likely making a start in the San Diego Handicap (G2) in late July as a prep.

2. National Treasure. Returns this weekend in the Met Mile (G1), where a win would make him tough to deny the top spot. Last out he finished fourth in the Saudi Cup, but he put in a commendable performance and fell short by just under two lengths. The winner of the Pegasus World Cup earlier this year and the Preakness Stakes last year, National Treasure has demonstrated his maturity in his recent races.

3. First Mission. Started his season with a ninth-place finish in the Pegasus World Cup but has been impressive in two starts since, winning the Essex (G3) at Oaklawn and the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill Downs.

4. White Abarrio. No excuses when off the board in the Saudi Cup, and one has to wonder whether running overseas with his trainer under a microscope had anything to do with it. The Breeders’ Cup Classic winner from last season will run the rest of the year in the U.S., where he will try to get back to the dramatic form reversal we witnessed over his three starts before the Saudi Cup. His connections have outlined plans for three more races this season. The next target is the Met Mile this weekend, followed by appearances in the Whitney (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

5. Mr Fisk. The recent winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup (G2), he also triumphed in the Californian (G3) in April. Two decades ago, these victories would have made him a strong contender for the Eclipse Award, but today, these races are considered less significant. Unfortunately, he was injured during his Gold Cup win and is unlikely to race again. Nevertheless, he deserves recognition and remains in the top five for now.

Next 5: Saudi Crown, Skippylongstocking, Newgate, Kingsbarns, Next

Older dirt females

1. Idiomatic. Looked better than ever in her return, winning the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs by a little over three lengths. She has won nine of her last 10 starts. Will go next in the Ogden Phipps (G1) on Saturday.

2. Sweet Azteca. Won her first graded stakes last out in the Beholder Mile (G1). She is 3-for-4 in her short career.

3. Adare Manor. Another start and another win for this gal. This time she scored in the Santa Margarita (G2) at Santa Anita. Before this last win she made a rare appearance outside of her home state of California and won the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn impressively by more than five lengths.

4. Pretty Mischievous. The 3-year-old female Eclipse winner from 2023, this gal also returned in the La Troienne and ran a decent third, five lengths back of idiomatic. Entered in a short but strong Ogden Phipps (G1) field this weekend.

5. Randomized. Was upset her in 2024 debut, finishing runner-up in the Ruffian (G2) at Aqueduct. Last fall she was runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff as a 3-year-old. Will take on the top one in the Ogden Phipps.

Next 5: Scylla, Free like a Bird, Coffee in Bed, Desert Dawn, Bellamore

3-year-old males

1. Mystik Dan. This guy ran very well when runner-up in the Preakness and moves up based off of that effort to claim this top spot. He showed up and ran while others sat on the sidelines, and running in races matters in these rankings. If he wins the Belmont this weekend, he will have the Eclipse sewn up. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. In the Eclipse award era, 27 of the 29 dual-classic winners went on to win the Eclipse. The exceptions were Riva Ridge (1972) losing out to Key to the Mint, and Tabasco Cat (1994) losing out to Holy Bull. There are no Key to the Mints or Holy Bulls in this crop of 3-year-olds.

2. Sierra Leone. Falls to this spot because, well, he didn’t run in the Preakness. He was runner-up in the Kentucky Derby and won his other two graded-stakes starts this season. He will be favored in the Belmont over 10 furlongs at Saratoga this weekend and is the horse to beat.

3. Seize the Grey. Facile winner of the Preakness, he has taken several steps forward in his last two starts, both wins. Before the Preakness he scored in the Pat Day Mile (G2). Will run next in the Belmont, where another win would move him to the top of the division and, as with Mystik Dan, make him nearly impossible to catch for the Eclipse.

4. Forever Young. With one start in this country, this guy is ranked here even though he was likely the best horse who ran in the Kentucky Derby. Now 5-for-6 on his career, he globetrotted his way to Kentucky with wins this year in two countries already. I think it is a long shot we see him stateside again, but the Breeders’ Cup is still a possibility.

5. Muth. Dominated the Arkansas Derby (G1) last out and is now 2-for-2 on the season as he impressed to win going away in the San Vicente (G2) in January. Last season at age 2 he was second best in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and won the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita. Scratched from the Preakness because of a fever.

Next 5: Catching Freedom, Fierceness, Honor Marie, Just a Touch, Resilience

3-year-old females

1. Thorpedo Anna. Dominated a deep Kentucky Oaks (G1) and proved she is the real deal. Now 4-for-5 on her career, and she runs in the Acorn (G1) on Friday.

2. Just F Y I. Ran well to be runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks after only one race in 2024. She has shown she matured from age 2 and is a real contender in this division moving forward. Takes on the top one in the Acorn.

3. Tarifa. Up the track in the Kentucky Oaks, but perhaps she disliked the off track. Still, with two graded-stakes wins this season, Tarifa stays in the top five here.

4. Nothing Like You. Dominated the Santa Anita Oaks (G2), winning by more than seven lengths and leaving Kinza in her wake. Was that an aberration? Possibly. Still, a nice effort. Returns Saturday in the Summertime Oaks (G2).

5. Kinza. No excuses when runner-up to Nothing Like you last out in the Santa Anita Oaks. In her prior three starts she was dominant, posting two graded-stakes wins this season.

Next 5: Regulatory Risk, Leslie’s Rose, Power Squeeze, Tamara, Jody’s Pride

Turf males

1. Master of The Seas. We finally have a solid leader of this division after he won the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) last out in dominating fashion. He now has three Grade 1 scores from his last four starts in North America. But the problem is he won’t run again until August, so he will fall from this spot. For now, he is up top, but I’m disappointed the connections will bench him for four months and wait untill the Aug. 10 Fourstardave (G1) for his next start.

2. Program Trading. Returned in the Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs on Derby weekend and won by a head over Naval Power. Last year he won the Hollywood Derby (G1) in his last start in December. Could be the best in this division. Will run this weekend in the Manhattan (G1) at Saratoga, where a win would move him to the top of this division.

3. Naval Power. This guy is 6-for-9 in his career, and this year he just missed when runner-up in two Grade 1 events stateside, the last being the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs. Won a Group 2 event in Dubai earlier this season.

4. Johannes. Now 2-for-2 on this season after his Shoemaker Mile (G1) win, this guy has come back a different horse after being on the bench for nearly a year.

5. Du Jour. Overpowered the Kilroe Mile (G1) field last out for his first Grade 1 win. Before that he was off the board in the Breeder’s Cup Mile and won one graded stakes in 2023. Finished a fast-closing third in the Shoemaker Mile, which was a race he really needed to win to show he was a serious contender in this division.

Next 5: Silver Knott, I’m Very Busy, Gold Phoenix, Missed the Cut, Easter

Turf females

1. English Rose. It’s early in this division with no clear standout, and this gal resides on top for now after her runner-up in the Jenny Wiley (G1), where she finished ahead of several ranked below. She has run two other times this season, both overseas, wining a Group 2 stakes and finishing runner-up in another. Will run in the New York Stakes (G1) on Friday, taking on several ranked below. A win will solidify her position here at the top.

2. Anisette. Super impressive in her first start of 2024, the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita on Memorial Day. Since coming to this country last season she is 5-for-7 with four graded-stakes wins. She is likely the best in the west and a serious threat to reach the top of this division later this season.

3. Didia. The winner of the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January, she won two graded stakes last season and was 10th in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. She finished third in the Jenny Wiley. Will take on the top one in the New York Stakes.

4. Gina Romantica. Sort of a disappointment in the Jenny Wiley, she finished seventh, beaten by more than seven lengths in her first start of 2024. Last season she made only four starts but scored a big win in the First Lady (G1) and then finished a very good fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Returns on Friday in the Just a Game (G1) at Saratoga.

5. Beaute Cachee. In the best form of her career now at age 5, this Chad Brown-trained daughter of Literato scored her first Grade 1 win in the Jenny Wiley at odds of 25-1. The Jenny Wiley was her first start of 2024. She too runs in the Just a Game on Friday.

Next 5: Chili Flag, McKulick, Fev Rover, Whitebeam, War Like Goddess

Male sprinters

1. Skelly. Was stunned last time out in the Aristides at Churchill Downs when runner-up losing by a length to Closethegame Sugar. Previously he dominated the listed Lake Hamilton. Has won 9 of his last 11 starts. 

2. The Chosen Vron. Won again, this time in the Thor’s Echo Stakes at Santa Anita. This was his fifth straight win since his Breeders’ Cup Sprint loss last fall. His record is remarkable, winning 18 of his 23 career starts. Tops out west in this division, the only question for this guy in 2024 will be whether he can hang with the very best in this division. He will need to run faster for sure, but right now he is on a roll out west.

3. Gun Pilot. Scored his first stakes win last out in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), defeating a few ranked below. Runs this weekend in the True North (G2) at Saratoga.

4. Post Time. Disappointed in the Westchester (G3), finishing second, and I believe his rider waited too long to make his run. Had won eight of his nine career starts before the Westchester. Will run in the Met Mile this weekend and is a contender.

5. Nakatomi. Third last out in Dubai in the Golden Shaheen (G1), he was third in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Major player in this division.

Next 5: Happy Jack, Sibelius, Super Chow, Hoist the Gold, Closethegame Sugar.

Female sprinters

1. Vahva. Got revenge on Alva Starr in the Derby City Distaff (G1), where she posted a facile two-length win. Previously she was runner-up to Alva Starr in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland in her first start of 2024.

2. Alva Starr. Runner-up to Vahva in the Derby City, she should get another shot at her rival this summer at Saratoga. Easy winner of the black-type Rehoboth Beach on Wednesday at Delaware Park.

3. Flying Connection. Third to the top two in the Derby City, she has won six listed stakes and placed in her last two Grade 1 starts.

4. Three Witches. The Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint third-place runner from last season started this season off right with a win in the Santa Monica (G2) at Santa Anita but then disappointed last out in he Derby City, finishing seventh.

5. Society. This gal was fourth in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint and is back on the work tab. She won two stakes last year and should be a major player in this division.

Next 5: Red Carpet Ready, Clearly Unhinged, Sidabhuti, Apple Picker, Honor D Lady

Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners are easy horses to root for this weekend

Make no mistake, the Belmont Stakes 2024 is a must-see
event. This isn’t something that can be said every year, but this time, the
Belmont features nearly every notable 3-year-old contender for the year-end
Eclipse Awards. The only potential exceptions are Muth and Fierceness, who
would now be long shots for that honor because the either have not run in or failed to
place in all three Triple Crown events.

For me, this year’s Belmont boils down to the fan in me
rooting hard for two horses who have defied modern training logic. Mystik Dan
and Seize the Grey already have silenced some of the critics
attempting to undermine the Triple Crown, one of the last pieces of this sport
that still resonates with the public.

If either Mystik Dan or Seize the Grey wins this weekend, the
mystique of the Triple Crown will be upheld for at least a few more years.
Although the debate over whether horses require more time between races can be
endlessly discussed, I suspect that if the horses could voice their opinion,
they would dismiss such claims as nonsense. 

Numerous horses excel with more frequent races. Just two
decades ago, it was common for there to be only three or four weeks between races. Three decades ago, two or three weeks was the standard. Interestingly, horses
from those eras often ran significantly faster than those of today.

In today’s world of horse racing, trainer Bob Baffert has
become the focal point of controversy while, in an ironic twist, D. Wayne
Lukas, the trainer of Seize the Grey, emerges as a feel-good story.

Experienced
fans recognize that if cancel culture had existed in the 1980s or even the
1990s, Lukas would have found himself in the role of the villain. During that era, D. Wayne Lukas was akin to the Bob Baffert of his time,
dominating the scene with numerous victories. But he also often entered
his horses in every significant race available, often pushing the boundaries,
even by the standards of that era.

The Lukas-trained Serena’s Song finished off the board against males on multiple occasions, yet
Lukas persisted in running her against them six times, resulting in a Grade 1
win and several other placings. In the 1995 season, Serena’s Song raced 13 times, with three of those races against males. Serena’s Song is
now immortalized in the Hall of Fame, largely because of the influence of her
trainer.

But I’ll digress for a moment. Was I a fan of Lukas back then?
Absolutely. He embodied what the sport required at that time. Lukas possessed
excellent media skills, being affable and articulate. Moreover, he nurtured
numerous stars of the sport. But these stars shone brightly because they
raced more frequently than every few months.

As for the Belmont this weekend, the Preakness winner, Seize
the Grey, stands out to me as the horse hitting his peak at just the right time.
His victory on Kentucky Derby day in the Pat Day Mile was impressive, but his
performance in the Preakness was even more impressive. Seize the Grey scored a
decisive victory by taking the lead early and maintaining it throughout the
race. His pedigree, being a son of Arrogate, suggests that distance won’t be a
problem. To me, he appears poised to deliver an even stronger performance on
Saturday. Considering the early lines, he seems likely to offer good value
compared to two other horses, Mindframe and Antiquarian, who lack experience at
this level and distance.

To all the Mystik Dan fans, I owe you an apology. After his victory in the Southwest Stakes (G3) on a sloppy track in February, I
mistakenly labeled this son of Goldencents as a specialist in those conditions,
doubting his ability to compete with the very best on a dry track and over
longer distances. I couldn’t have been more wrong.

Mystik Dan delivered an outstanding performance on Kentucky
Derby Day, but it was his runner-up finish in the Preakness that really
impressed me. His performance in the Preakness told me he is indeed the real
deal moving forward. Now, trainer Kenny McPeek wheels him back for the Belmont,
a refreshing move to see.

Like Lukas, McPeek has taken risks in this game. Just four years ago McPeek ran the filly Swiss Skydiver in the Preakness after suffering a loss in the Kentucky Oaks. Few gave the filly a chance, but she prevailed in a stretch dual
with Kentucky Derby winner Authentic in the most exciting Preakness finish
since the Sunday Silence-Easy Goer classic in 1989. Few trainers, if any, other than McPeek or Lukas in today’s game would have entered Swiss Skydiver in
that spot. So, like Lukas, McPeek played a huge part in making Swiss Skydiver what
she was, allowing her to attempt such a feat.

Could Mystik Dan become the first Derby winner since Thunder
Gulch in 1995 to win a Belmont after falling short in the Preakness? He
certainly can. With the possibility of a wet track this weekend, Mystik Dan
could move up even more. I am rooting for him to get the job done.

In my ideal scenario, Saturday we would see a showdown
between Mystik Dan and Seize the Grey. For aficionados of the old school, such
an outcome would provide a fitting conclusion to the 2024 Triple Crown.