Cubs “Privately Discussed” Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Trade

If the Blue Jays make star slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. available this summer, it appears that the Cubs would be among the suitors for his services. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that Chicago’s brass have “privately discussed” the possibility of pursuing Guerrero ahead of the trade deadline next month.

Of course, such a deal would be predicated on Toronto actually making Guerrero available. Toronto is tied for fifth place in the AL East with a 31-33 record but currently sits just two games out of the final AL Wild Card spot, making a postseason push more than feasible in the event that the Jays manage to turn things around. Even if they don’t manage to climb back into contention, club GM Ross Atkins recently took to the radio to emphasize that trading either Guerrero or fellow star infielder Bo Bichette “doesn’t make any sense” for the Blue Jays to consider. This sort of deal would also surely require the Cubs themselves to turn things around prior to the trade deadline. While Chicago is just one game out of an NL Wild Card spot at the moment, their 31-34 record puts them mere percentage points ahead of the Cardinals for last place in a crowded NL Central division after a brutal skid that has seen them go 7-17 over their last 24 games.

All those caveats make it appear unlikely that a deal between the Jays and the Cubs will actually come together, although it’s worth noting that things can certainly change with nearly two months to go until deadline day. The idea that the two sides could come together on a Guerrero deal certainly has some logic to it, even as plenty of roadblocks remain in the way of a trade occurring. Reporting from ESPN’s Jeff Passan earlier this week indicated that the Jays are unlikely to set a course for their trade deadline strategy until after the All Star break, while Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently made note of the fact that the club has struggled with power production this season and indicated that he could look to address that issue ahead of the deadline.

If the Cubs are looking for power, Guerrero would certainly provide it. A three-time All Star in the midst of his age-25 season, the slugger has slashed a combined .284/.364/.498 with 113 home runs in 541 games since his breakout 2021 season where he led the majors with 48 long balls and finished second to Shohei Ohtani in AL MVP voting. In addition to his impactful offensive ability, Guerrero could be a particularly attractive trade candidate for Chicago due to his remaining team control. Most other speculative trade candidates who could add some thump to a lineup, such as Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Christian Walker, are set to become free agents after the 2024 campaign. Guerrero, on the other hand, is currently slated to hit free agency after 2025. That would not only give Chicago an additional full season of team control over Guerrero’s services, but also give them the opportunity to extend him a Qualifying Offer in the event he departs in free agency.

Guerrero has almost exclusively appeared at first base and DH in recent years, where the Cubs have relied primarily on Michael Busch and Mike Tauchman this season. While the pair have been perhaps the Cubs’ most effective hitters this year, neither player figures to get in the way of a trade for a player of Guerrero’s caliber. Busch has cooled off somewhat after a hot start to the year in April and is striking out a 33.8% clip on the season, while Tauchman turns 34 in December and is unlikely to be viewed as a long-term piece even in spite of his excellent play with the Cubs over the past year. For an impact talent like Guerrero, the Cubs would surely be willing to push Tauchman into more of a fourth outfielder role while still allowing him to draw some starts on days where Busch sits. It’s even possible that the Cubs could look to free up more playing time by getting Guerrero occasional time at third base, as the Blue Jays have started to do for the first time since moving him off the position back in 2019.

Guerrero offers little in terms of defensive value at the hot corner, but the Cubs’s options at third are hardly defensively robust in their own right. Christopher Morel has gotten the lion’s share of playing time at the position this year but has received terrible ratings from defensive metrics. His -11 Outs Above Average is dead last among all qualified fielders this year according to Statcast, while his -8 Defensive Runs Saved is tied for last among all qualified infielders according to Fielding Bible. Patrick Wisdom, Nick Madrigal, and David Bote have all also seen occasional time at the hot corner for the Cubs this year, but none of them profile as quality defenders at the position themselves. If the Cubs share in Toronto’s willingness to give Guerrero even occasional starts at third base, that could allow manager Craig Counsell plenty of room to mix and match as he juggles Guerrero, Morel, Busch, and Cody Bellinger between the infield corners while also utilizing Bellinger alongside Tauchman, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Pete Crow-Armstrong in the club’s outfield mix.