Chorleywood fair odds: Added distance will help Webslinger

The Chorleywood Stakes on Saturday night at Churchill Downs is an interesting handicapping puzzle given its 11-furlong distance, three turns around the turf course and a competitive field of 11 that features class droppers and international shippers.

Webslinger is comfortably my most likely winner as a consistent turf sort who has run faster than most of these while facing better horses. He was last seen third, beaten just two lengths, in the Turf Classic on Kentucky Derby day, which was his third placing in a Grade 1 race without a win. 

Now getting the services of Jose Ortiz, who does well in these types of races (see jockey stats specific to turf marathons below), and stretching out to 1 3/8 miles for the first time in his career, improvement is possible here. I think he wins this race a third of the time, which makes his fair odds 2-1.

The presences of Bold Act and Winning Spirit, the other Grade-Group 2 winners in the field, should help us get our price. Plus Webslinger is ideally drawn inside.

I’m admittedly at a loss of how this race will get bet beyond the obvious choices. I could see either Stone Age or Sugoi potentially drifting into playable long-shot territory. The latter has the benefit of Julian Leparoux (see stats above), but I don’t love the post.

I’ll be looking to zero in on Webslinger as a single in the multi-race bets and see how the exotics look with the aforementioned Stone Age and Sugoi. 

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