Chicago Stakes Fair Odds: Vahva likely value in 2-horse race

Fans of this space know one of my favorite games to play is, “What if they were a coupled entry?”

I like the exercise because it helps put into focus just how likely it is a certain set of horses wins a race, which can have utility for multi-race wagers especially.

The Chicago Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs attracted five entrants but two in particular are overwhelmingly the likeliest winners: #1 Society, the 4-5 morning line favorite, and #3 Vahva, the even money morning line second choice.

I see it similarly, giving them an 87% chance between the two of them to win the Chicago, which is about 1-8 odds (about between 1-5 and 1-10). The morning line gives no indication that any of the outsiders will be worth a longshot punt, so taking a stand on one of the favorites is the prudent approach here.

Fair odds wise, I actually think Vahva is a more likely winner, so that is the opportunity. I.e. if Society really is odds on, then Vahva is worth a win bet. At the very least, as the second choice morning line versus me thinking she’s the most likely winner, Vahva is the stone-cold single in multi-race wagers.

Why the confidence? Well, I don’t love Society at this short of a price off the layoff. She’s questionably the fastest horse at her best, but all those big numbers came deeper into a form cycle. I.e., I’m inclined to “give her one.”

Vahva on the other hand is very much in form. She turned the tables on Alva Starr last out, and returns for her third race in 2 1/2 months off a 7-week layoff. Alva Starr has already returned to win adding to the confidence.

It will be worth looking at the exacta will pays, as if Society if completely not ready for her return, #4 Chi Town Lady (in the Chicago, no less) could close late and be second to Vahva.