Canadiens 2024-25 Outlook: A Realistic Approach To The Rebuild

The latest Montreal Canadiens fan poll revealed several interesting prevailing opinions when it comes to the future of the franchise, as well as the state of the team’s rebuild.

For many years, the mere concept of a rebuild was out of the question, as it was assumed fans would never stand for a series of seasons that resulted in very few wins, even if it was a small price to pay for a greater good. In French, we call it ‘un mal pour un bien‘, a direct translation would be ‘a bad for a good’, but the true spirit of the saying would be ‘a little pain for a lot of gain’. More on that later.

There was some logic to the concept that Habs fans would flat-out refuse to support a rebuild. After all, the Canadiens have lost as many games in the last three seasons as they did from 1971-72 to 1979-80, an era that produced an impressive six Stanley Cups for Les Glorieux.  But here’s the harsh reality of the current situation: the glory years are over, and they have been for several decades.

MUST READ: Montreal Canadiens Fan Poll Results – State Of The Rebuild

A new approach was needed, especially when you consider there’s a significant portion of fans that consider most of the 24 Stanley Cups won by the franchise a thing of legend.  Fans who are 30 years or younger were not yet born the last time the Canadiens took their ‘usual parade route’ to celebrate yet another Stanley Cup conquest. Only two players from the current roster were even alive in 1993: David Savard and Brendan Gallagher.

All this to say, the fact that the vast majority of Montreal Canadiens fans endorsed the rebuild, including the team’s draft record, the many trades, and the work done by a head coach that had no previous experience before taking charge in Montreal, should come as no surprise. They’re thirsty for success. They want to see their own heroes join the many legends in the pantheon of Canadiens history. But they know they can’t simply will their way to success.

Moving Forward

You could argue the first two and a half seasons of the rebuild have actually led to very little pain, and a lot of gain.

Finishing among the bottom five teams in the league for three consecutive seasons has led to the addition of top prospects and players such as Juraj Slafkovsky, Lane Hutson, Ivan Demidov, David Reinbacher, and Jacob Fowler, among others. It has also led to a bevy of opportunities for young players, as the Canadiens, a team that usually kept young defencemen not named Petr Svoboda in the minors for at least a few years, iced a defensive group populated with half a dozen rookies in 2022-23.

But there was one result from the poll that did point to a smidgen of impatience. Or rather, you could say it was a positive outlook. Either way, more than half of the respondents thought the Canadiens were in a relatively good position to qualify for the playoffs next season, suggesting they have 50/50 odds, or better.

It’s an understandable position. The Habs have one of the youngest lineups in the NHL. Many of their young players are expected to take a significant step forward in their careers next season. And for the first time in a long time, the Canadiens were able to ice a legitimate first line when head coach Martin St-Louis intervened to prevent Slafkovsky’s demotion to the minors and slotted him alongside captain Nick Suzuki and sniper Cole Caufield.

However, despite all the improvements, there are a few factors that must be kept in mind when projecting their 2024-25 campaign. Every other team in the Atlantic Division has their sights set firmly on qualifying for the playoffs. The Ottawa Senators, who have been stuck in what seems like an eternal rebuild, addressed one of their most pressing needs by adding a top goaltender to the mix when they traded for Linus Ullmark. The Buffalo Sabres have made some questionable decisions, especially when they traded one of their top prospects to the Edmonton Oilers for an established player in Ryan McLeod, but it’s clearly a sign they want to take the next step as soon as possible. As for the Detroit Red Wings, they arguably committed the greatest rebuild sin last season when they decided it was time to press fast-forward and acquire a wealth of veteran talent in free agency and in the NHL’s trade market.

It should be noted that all three teams failed to make the playoffs last season, and they’re far from guaranteed to qualify in 2023-24, though they have been given much better odds to qualify next season than the Canadiens.

This should serve as a warning to Montreal Canadiens management, as well as the fans, that there’s still a long way to go if the team is to emerge from this rebuild with the talent and personnel necessary to become Stanley Cup contenders.

Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks

Two years rebuilding in earnest is a good start. Now the real hard work comes into play, work that may take another few years to complete. This may come as a shock to some. It could even seem unacceptable to those who are starting to lose patience, albeit they’re a minority in the grand scheme of Habs fans.

But while the rest of the Eastern Conference enters into yet another season that includes an arms race that has already led to a mile-long casualty list filled with top prospects and an exodus of draft picks, we have the blueprint of mistakes made by other teams who were in a similar situation roughly a decade ago.

This is not meant to be negative, but rather, realistic. The best is yet to come for the Habs. Of that, I have no doubt.

The lack of activity once free agency opened points to a management team that is not dealing with illusions of grandeur, perhaps the greatest asset for any rebuild.

The Montreal Canadiens have one of the best prospect pools in the league. They may very well start the 2024–25 seasons with the youngest roster in the NHL. They also have a healthy amount of financial manoeuvrability when it comes to the salary cap. These are all important factors that will come into play down the road.

But until the Habs can prove their incredibly young blue line is ready to match some of the best forwards in the league in a seven-game series, or that they can actually control more shots and scoring chances than their opponents on most nights, or that a crucial player like Kirby Dach can maintain his health throughout the year, or that they’re no longer statistically likely to finish dead last in their division, the discussion surrounding the importance of qualifying for the playoffs should be pushed to the back burner, as there’s still a lot of work to do before we can honestly suggest the Canadiens are ready to compete with the top teams in the NHL.