Buying or Selling Each of Luka Dončić’s 6 Fouls in Game 3 NBA Finals Loss to Boston

DALLAS — Three games into the 2024 NBA Finals, and the Dallas Mavericks are already one loss away from elimination.

After a 106-99 loss to the Boston Celtics, Dallas is down 3-0. It’s on the verge of getting swept, thanks in large part to the six fouls called on Luka Dončić.

In a game the Mavs dropped by seven points, Luka was plus-nine (the only Dallas starter with a positive plus-minus). He had two fouls entering the fourth quarter, but he fouled out with more than four minutes to go. Four fouls and a disqualification in just over seven minutes.

And the last one came at the tail end of a furious Dallas rally that cut the lead from 21 points down to three.

In the biggest moment of at least his NBA career (and probably his entire basketball career), Luka suddenly had to sit on the bench with almost half a quarter to go. And from there, Boston outscored the Mavericks, 13-9.

Nothing’s impossible, but this series is now essentially over. NBA history hinging so dramatically on these calls, particularly when the sixth was challenged and reviewed by replay, warrants a little extra scrutiny.

So, that’s exactly what we did below.

Of course, officials can’t affect the game as much as the players. There are 10 in one group and three in the other. The Mavericks had plenty of chances to build on an early lead in this game. They were responsible for being down 2-0 coming into this one.

And for the entire series, the foul count is dead even. Dallas has actually attempted more free throws. The Mavs can’t blame the refs, but they’re also well within reason to wonder what might’ve been.

“I don’t want to say nothing, but you know,” Dončić said when asked about the calls in the fourth. “Six fouls in the NBA Finals when I’m basically like this. Come on, man.”

He gestured that his hands were out, presumably in a legal guarding position. He also mentioned that his team wasn’t allowed to play physical. And it sure looked like that way after another momentum-stunting foul was called on P.J. Washington after Dončić’s sixth.

But again, the foul count is even. Do the foul calls against Dallas just seem louder because of when they happened? Or the fact that four of them were blown on the Mavs’ best player?

Let’s find out with the ever-reliable “buy or sell” exercise applied to each of the six calls against Luka.

Let’s just go in sequence.

Luka’s first foul of the night, which was called with just over five minutes to go in the first quarter and with the Mavericks up double-digits, was, at best, a 50-50 call.

He found himself on Jayson Tatum in the corner after an offensive rebound, and he actually may have gotten away with a bit of contact before the isolation. But when the two were matched up, Tatum put his arm under Luka’s, pushed it up and started driving the baseline.

It was a classic offensive player’s trick. Create some sly contact and force the official’s hand. It maybe could’ve gone either way, but at this point in the game, the difference is negligible. In most games, it would’ve been. Luka had only fouled out of two playoff games before Wednesday.

But eventually, every whistled counted in this one.

Verdict: Sell

There isn’t much to analyze here.

Luka went the entire second quarter without committing a foul, but he opened the third quarter with a bad one.

This happens to plenty of players. And again, it felt pretty innocuous in the moment it was called.

Luka was frustrated by his own miss. He reached in after the defensive rebound and got caught clearly smacking Derrick White’s arm.

In most games, no big deal. But, well, you know.

Verdict: Buy

Early in the fourth quarter, Luka tried to spin baseline. His elbow went over Jaylen Brown’s shoulder, and it’s honestly not that difficult to see how he was called for the hook.

But there are certainly times when the defender is moving into the offensive player’s space and those bang-bang plays go the other way. In fact, one such case is coming a little later in this slideshow.

Ultimately, this isn’t one to complain much about. It’s just easier to second-guess when you know the end result.

Verdict: Buy

OK, now things are starting to get a little dicey.

Like the second foul, there really isn’t anything to argue here. In fact, Luka turned to the scorer’s table and raised his arm, acknowledging that he fouled Payton Pritchard.

But it’s at this point that he really should’ve been more careful.

A couple cheap ones in the first half and early in the third quarter aren’t a huge deal. Or at least they don’t have to be. But when you already have three, there’s no real purpose in trying to go through a player’s back for a steal.

Luka had no play on the ball here, but he tried to make one anyway.

Verdict: Buy

There are elements to the fifth foul that are a bit like the first and third. Brown, like Tatum on the first call, is clearly responsible for some of this contact. Brown’s move here is eerily similar to the one Luka was penalized for on the third call.

He hooks Dončić with his right arm as he starts to turn toward the paint, and when both players go down, the officials’ hands are sort of forced.

There are certainly moments throughout the season when that might’ve been called on the offensive player. We’d just seen one earlier in this quarter.

But Luka made plenty of his own mistakes here. For one thing, he gives up the baseline cut to Brown. Had he cut that off early, he never would’ve been in position (or rather, out of position) to foul.

By the time he reacts to the cut, Brown already has him beat. And as he closes the gap, he’s a little out of control and almost leaning on the offensive player.

Like the first one, this may be a toss-up. And those are usually fine. But a couple toss-ups make the bad fouls even harder to excuse.

Verdict: Sell

Finally, the coup de grâce.

As mentioned at the outset, Dallas had just shaved 18 points of a 21-point lead.

With 11:07 to play, Derrick White hit a three to stretch the score to 91-70. Between then and the point when Luka’s sixth foul was called (roughly seven minutes off the game clock), the Mavs outscored Boston, 20-2.

And then Luka tried to take charge. The blocking call squashed most of the momentum, and then the moving screen on P.J. Washington seemingly took out the rest.

Just when it looked like the Mavericks might be able to down this juggernaut, the officials changed the course of the game and all but sealed a title for the Celtics.

But it’s not like they did it entirely on their own.

As you’ve seen, Luka made plenty of mistakes on his previous fouls. Even this one is the kind of bang-bang play that could go either way. Is he moving enough to warrant a block call in plenty of circumstances? Sure. Is it kind of ridiculous to call it in this one? Yep.

But Dončić also created this circumstance by trying to take a charge in transition and with five fouls. It’s not like he was waiting for several steps in a halfcourt situation. Getting set for a charge with everyone flying down the floor is hard for the best defenders. Luka isn’t one of the best.

In fact, his defense has become the subject of lowlight reels during this series. If he’d been better on that end, Dallas would’ve been in better position to win Games 2 and 3.

It’s easy to worry about officiating. Natural, really. Maybe it’s the path of least resistance. But in future Finals appearances (and yes, Luka’s good enough to get back here), there’s plenty Dončić and his Mavericks can do to take games out of the referees’ hands.

Verdict: Sell that this is a foul, but also sell that these calls are entirely to blame for Dallas’ position.