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Building a College Football Super League model, with these 40 schools making cut | Sporting News Canada

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Building a College Football Super League model, with these 40 schools making cut | Sporting News Canada

The House vs. NCAA settlement re-opens the possibility for an eventuality in big-time college football – one that has been a talking point since before the College Football Playoff era started. 

When will the College Football Super League start? On May 20, Sports Business Journal reported that the Big Ten had more than $850 million in revenue in 2023, which was ahead of the SEC at $820 million. Those two conferences have created gaps within the now-Power 4 and rest of college football, and revenue sharing with athletes is one of the building blocks for the Super League structure.

“It’s just going to take time,” Athletes.org founder and chairman Jim Cavale told Sporting News. “Essentially, a college football Super League is creating one media deal that has a trickle-down effect where top teams get the upside and make more money. Middle tier teams make a certain amount – a guaranteed amount they can operate off, and smaller teams can still survive and there is more money because it’s one media deal.”

TV and total revenue, of course, will be the forces behind that Super League. Which schools can afford to play at that level? For certain programs in the power conferences, that will be easy. Others, however, might fall in a different category.

“There may be more haves and have-nots that come out of this settlement, which will position them for where they live in a future Super League should it happen,” Cavale said.

That revenue, however, should not be everything. Winning has to count for something. So does academics. This is college football, right? Whenever I’m asked, “What would you do if you were college football commissioner?” my initial response is, “Create this Super League using five categories.”

Let’s try one that has all of those components in a 40-team league. This is a better model than the 15-team hypothetical version we created in 2021. Here are the five categories behind it – and the teams we would build that league around. 

BENDER: What’s next for college sports after House settlement?

What would a Super League look like? 

We used five factors for each FBS program to build a Super League. The top 40 teams in four of these five categories scored points with our formula: 

Revenue (scored 40-1)

A Super League would be all about money. We are not blind to that. We awarded points AP Style (40 to 1) for the top 40 revenue-producing schools from the USA Today rankings that were released on March 24. Ohio State, which was No. 1, got 40 points. There is an obvious flaw in this metric. There are 16 FBS football programs at private institutions that do not disclose that information on the USA Today rankings. Programs such as Notre Dame and USC still score high on our formula even without that number factored in, but it would negatively impact programs such as Duke and Stanford in this case. 

Winning percentage (scored 40-1)

We took the winning percentage of the top 40 programs over the last 10 years – the College Football Playoff era. Only schools that were in the FBS for the entirety of that period were included. This rewards Group of 5 schools such as Boise State and Appalachian State, but winning is part of the process of building a FBS program, is it not? 

National championships (10 points each)

A total of 10 points are given for every national championship since the start of the BCS era in 1998. That’s 26 years of national champions, with one split championship between LSU and USC in 2003. We could have shortened this time period to 25 years, which would have taken 10 points away from the 1998 Tennessee team.

NFL Draft picks (scored 40-1)

This would be a controversial metric, but the successful programs send players to the next level in this profession.

Academic Progress Rate (APR) (scored 40-1)

This balances that out. If college football still should have an academic requirement to it, then the schools that have a strong APR should be rewarded. This number was taken off the 2022-23 school year and would have to be refined, but academics should always be part of the equation. This is why you reward schools such as Northwestern and Wisconsin – which are tied for the highest APR in that time frame. 

MORE: Ranking top 25 QBs in 2024 | Top 25 coaches

Which teams qualified for the Super League?  

After applying those five metrics, we built a 40-team Super League. The following schools were in our Top 40. 

These 40 schools, which make up about 30% of the 134 schools in the current FBS, would be invited to the Super League: 

RANK SCHOOL POINTS
1 Alabama 215
2 Ohio State 172
3 Clemson 153
4 Michigan 143
5 Georgia 131
6 LSU 127
7 Oklahoma 109
8 Wisconsin 107.5
9 Florida State 106
10(t) Florida 94.5
10(t) Notre Dame 94.5
10(t) Washington 94.5
13 Penn State 92
14 Auburn 88.5
15 Utah 78
16 Oregon 76
17 Texas 73
18 Texas A&M 70
19 Ole Miss 69.5
20 Iowa 66
21 Boise State 60.5
22 USC 60
23(t) Missouri 54.5
23(t) Cincinnati 54.5
25 Air Force 52
26 Minnesota 48.5
27 Michigan State 46.5
28 South Carolina 44.5
29(t) Miami, Fla. 43
29(t) Virginia 43
31 Tennessee 40
32 Northwestern 39.5
33 Louisville 38.5
34 Mississippi State 38
35 TCU 34.5
36 Kentucky 34
37 Arkansas 33
38(t) North Carolina 32.5
38(t) UCF 32.5
40 Wake Forest 32

A breakdown of those schools by their current conference affiliation: 

ACC

Schools (7): Clemson (No. 3), Florida State (No. 9), Miami, Fla. (T-No. 29), Virginia (T-No. 29), Louisville (No. 33), North Carolina (T-No. 38), Wake Forest (No. 40) 

How many of these schools were in the Secret Seven? Wake Forest was tied with Appalachian State for the last spot in the Super League. We gave that spot to the school with the highest APR, but imagine if they had to have a play-in game to get in the league? Who would you pick? 

MORE: Ranking ACC quarterback situations for 2024

Big Ten 

Schools (11): Ohio State (No. 2), Michigan (No. 4), Wisconsin (No. 8), Washington (T-No. 10), Penn State (No. 13), Oregon (No. 16), Iowa (No. 20), USC (No. 22), Minnesota (No. 26), Michigan State (No. 27), Northwestern (No. 32) 

Nebraska and UCLA are jarring omissions, but are they? Those programs have under-performed in the current landscape – and their fan bases would be hard-pressed to disagree with that assessment.  Illinois, Indiana and Purdue would also be left behind in this scenario. USC would be ranked higher if their revenue was disclosed. What does this look like in 10 years for these schools after playing in an 18-team conference that is essentially half of a Super League? We will be interested to see those results. 

MORE: Ranking Big Ten quarterback situations for 2024

Big 12 

Schools (4): Utah (No. 8), Cincinnati (T-No. 23), TCU (No. 35), UCF (No. 38) 

None of these schools were in current power conferences at the start of the BCS era. TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012. It could be argued this is the reward for being a BCS buster – which Utah and TCU were before joining the Pac-12 and Big 12, respectively. The Horned Frogs played in a CFP championship. Cincinnati and UCF were CFP-caliber programs before joining the Big 12. It is an intriguing dynamic with the new-look Big 12. Would those schools survive every year against the SEC and Big Ten power-houses? This would be the best way to find out. 

MORE: Ranking Big 12 quarterback situations for 2024

SEC

Schools (15): Alabama (No. 1), Georgia (No. 5), LSU (No. 6), Oklahoma (No. 7), Florida (T-No. 10), Auburn (No. 14), Texas (No. 17), Texas A&M (No. 18), Ole Miss (NO. 19), Missouri (T-No. 23), South Carolina (No. 28), Tennessee (No. 31), Mississippi State (No. 34), Kentucky (No. 36), Arkansas (No. 37) 

Everybody but Vanderbilt makes the cut — for now. This might be a reflection of why SEC commissioner Greg Sankey isn’t in a big hurry to add more teams. The SEC has the most competitive league and could probably self-contain half of a Super League. 

MORE: Ranking SEC quarterback situations for 2024

Independent and Group of 5 

Schools (3): Notre Dame (T-No. 10), Boise State (No. 21), Air Force (No. 25)  

Notre Dame finally joins a conference. If there is a Super League, then the Irish are likely going to be a part of it. Boise State and Air Force might draw criticism, but it better not come from those itching to build their own Group of 5 dynasty in “EA Sports College Football ’25.” Why can’t it happen in real life? The Broncos and Falcons have exceptional winning percentages and graduation rates. In reality, the revenue would be a major problem, but this formula allows smaller schools the opportunity to continue to build – and sell – their programs while building toward the ultimate prize. 

Benefits of the Super League 

Is this model perfect? No, but it gives a snapshot of what those haves and have-nots look like now and the challenges they will face. Perhaps relegation – a popular term given how it is used in European soccer – would be a factor. Would the Super League teams be renewed after a 10-year contract? 

The most-obvious benefit of a Super League would be simple. 

“You’re going to have better viewership because then you’re going to have the best teams playing the best teams more often, which more people are going to watch,” Cavale said. 

That is what is going to drive this narrative. A better TV deal and more money that will help support the new financial structure of college football. 

Of course, there would be talk about relegation in this model. Imagine if that 40-team Super League had a 10-year contract. The formula could stand for the next 10 years to see which schools make the cut. We are open to that idea as well. 

Super League rankings by school 

Here is a look at how each school scored in our Super League rankings by the five categories. The top 40 schools in revenue, winning percentage, APR and NFL Draft picks were awarded AP Poll style (40-1). A total of 10 points per national championship over the last 25 years was given to each school. 

Here is where each school ranked in those five categories. 

SCHOOL REVENUE WIN% NATTY (#) APR NFL
Ohio State 1 2 2 7 2
Texas 2 – 1 – T-16
Alabama 3 1 6 T-3 1
Michigan 4 6 1 T-15 5
Georgia 5 4 2 – 3
LSU 6 T-10 2.5 – 4
Texas A&M 7 29 – – T-16
Florida 8 T-34 2 – 6
Penn State 9 14 – – 8
Oklahoma 10 5 1 – 9
Auburn 11 – 1 T-19 T-13
Michigan State 12 – – T-27 35
Indiana 13 – – – –
Virginia 14 – – T-23 –
Florida State 15 23 2 T-23 15
Kentucky 16 – – – T-31
Clemson 17 3 2 T-3 7
Tennessee 18 – 1 – 34
Oregon 19 T-10 – – T-16
Arkansas 20 – – – T-27
Iowa 21 15 – – 21
Wisconsin 22 T-10 – T-1 22
Louisville 23 – – T-27 T-31
Illinois 24 – – – –
Washington 25 13 – 18 T-13
Nebraska 26 – – – –
South Carolina 27 – – T-23 T-26
Missouri 28 – – T-11 T-27
Minnesota 29 – – T-8 T-36
Ole Miss 30 – – T-3 T-19
Arizona 31 – – – –
North Carolina 32 – – T-27 T-27
Arizona State 33 – – – –
Cal 34 – – T-36 –
Kansas 35 – – – –
Utah 36 17 – T-13 T-19
Purdue 37 – – – –
Virginia Tech 38 – – – –
Iowa State 39 – – T-15 –
Mississippi State 40 – – T-19 25
Notre Dame – 7 – T-11 10
Boise State – 8 – T-13 –
Appalachian State – 9 – – –
Oklahoma State – 16 – – –
Memphis – 18 – – –
Liberty – 19 – T-36 –
Toledo – 20 – – –
Air Force – 21 – T-8 –
San Diego State – 22 – – –
TCU – 24 – – T-23
USC – 25 1.5 – 12
Cincinnati – 26 – 6 T-36
NC State – 30 – – –
Houston – 31 – – T-38
BYU – 32 – – –
Western Kentucky – 33 – – –
UAB – 36 – – –
Ohio – 37 – – –
Louisiana – 40 – – –
Miami, Fla. – – 1 T-36 11
UCLA – – – – T-23
Stanford – – – T-27 T-26
Pitt – – – T-23 T-31
Boston College – – – T-19 T-38
Baylor – – – T-34 T-38
Maryland – – – – T-38
Northwestern – – – T-1 –
Wake Forest – – – T-8 –
Rice – – – T-15 –
Duke – – – T-27 –
Tulane – – – T-27 –
UNLV – – – 33 –
Ball State – – – T-34 –
Georgia Tech – – – T-36 –
Army – – – T-36 –
Temple – – – T-36 –
UCF – T-27 – 22 –
Marshall – T-27 – – –
Troy – T-34 – – –
Kansas State – T-38 – T-36 –
Coastal Carolina – T-38 – – –

With those rankings, here is how those schools scored in each category. A total of 81 schools scored at least one point. 

RANK SCHOOL CONF REVENUE WIN% NATTY APR NFL TOTAL
1 Alabama SEC 38 40 60 37 40 215
2 Ohio State Big Ten 40 39 20 34 39 172
3 Clemson ACC 24 38 20 37 34 153
4 Michigan Big Ten 37 35 10 25 36 143
5 Georgia SEC 36 37 20 0 38 131
6 LSU SEC 35 30 25 0 37 127
7 Oklahoma SEC 31 36 10 0 32 109
8 Wisconsin Big Ten 19 30 0 39.5 19 107.5
9 Florida State ACC 26 18 20 16 26 106
10 Notre Dame Ind. 0 34 0 29.5 31 94.5
11 Washington Big Ten 16 28 0 23 27.5 94.5
12 Florida SEC 33 6.5 20 0 35 94.5
13 Penn State Big Ten 32 27 0 0 33 92
14 Auburn SEC 30 0 10 21 27.5 88.5
15 Utah Big 12 5 24 0 27.5 21.5 78
16 Oregon Big Ten 22 30 0 0 24 76
17 Texas SEC 39 0 10 0 24 73
18 Texas A&M SEC 34 12 0 0 24 70
19 Ole Miss SEC 11 0 0 37 21.5 69.5
20 Iowa Big Ten 20 26 0 0 20 66
21 Boise State MWC 0 33 0 27.5 0 60.5
22 USC Big Ten 0 16 15 0 29 60
23 Cincinnati Big 12 0 15 0 35 4.5 54.5
24 Missouri SEC 13 0 0 29.5 12 54.5
25 Air Force MWC 0 20 0 32 0 52
26 Minnesota Big Ten 12 0 0 32 4.5 48.5
27 Michigan State Big Ten 29 0 0 11.5 6 46.5
28 South Carolina SEC 14 0 0 16 14.5 44.5
29 Miami, Fla. ACC 0 0 10 3 30 43
30 Virginia ACC 27 0 0 16 0 43
31 Tennessee SEC 23 0 10 0 7 40
32 Northwestern Big Ten 0 0 0 39.5 0 39.5
33 Louisville ACC 18 0 0 11.5 9 38.5
34 Mississippi State SEC 1 0 0 21 16 38
35 TCU Big 12 0 17 0 0 17.5 34.5
36 Kentucky SEC 25 0 0 0 9 34
37 Arkansas SEC 21 0 0 0 12 33
38 UCF Big 12 0 13.5 0 19 0 32.5
39 North Carolina ACC 9 0 0 11.5 12 32.5
40 Wake Forest ACC 0 0 0 32 0 32
41 Appalachian State Sun Belt 0 32 0 0 0 32
42 Indiana Big Ten 28 0 0 0 0 28
43 Iowa State Big 12 2 0 0 25 0 27
44 Stanford ACC 0 0 0 11.5 14.5 26
45 Oklahoma State Big 12 0 25 0 0 0 25
46 Liberty Sun Belt 0 22 0 3 0 25
47 Pitt ACC 0 0 0 16 9 25
48 Rice C-USA 0 0 0 25 0 25
49 Memphis American 0 23 0 0 0 23
50 Boston College ACC 0 0 0 21 2 23
51 Toledo MAC 0 21 0 0 0 21
52 San Diego State MWC 0 19 0 0 0 19
53 UCLA Big Ten 0 0 0 0 17.5 17.5
54 Illinois Big Ten 17 0 0 0 0 17
55 Duke ACC 0 0 0 16 0 16
56 Nebraska Big Ten 15 0 0 0 0 15
57 Marshall Sun Belt 0 13.5 0 0 0 13.5
58 Houston Big 12 0 10 0 0 2 12
59 NC State ACC 0 11 0 0 0 11
60 Cal ACC 7 0 0 3 0 10
61 Arizona Big 12 10 0 0 0 0 10
62 BYU Big 12 0 9 0 0 0 9
63 Baylor Big 12 0 0 0 6.5 2 8.5
64 Tulane American 0 0 0 8.5 0 8.5
65 UNLV MWC 0 0 0 8.5 0 8.5
66 Western Kentucky C-USA 0 8 0 0 0 8
67 Arizona State Big 12 8 0 0 0 0 8
68 Troy Sun Belt 0 6.5 0 0 0 6.5
69 Ball State MAC 0 0 0 6.5 0 6.5
70 Kansas Big 12 6 0 0 0 0 6
71 Kansas State Big 12 0 2.5 0 3 0 5.5
72 UAB C-USA 0 5 0 0 0 5
73 Ohio MAC 0 4 0 0 0 4
74 Purdue Big Ten 4 0 0 0 0 4
75 Virginia Tech ACC 3 0 0 0 0 3
76 Georgia Tech ACC 0 0 0 3 0 3
77 Army Independent 0 0 0 3 0 3
78 Temple American 0 0 0 3 0 3
79 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 0 2.5 0 0 0 2.5
80 Maryland Big Ten 0 0 0 0 2 2
81 Louisiana Sun Belt 0 1 0 0 0 1
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