BS Meter on the Latest NHL Trade and Free Agency Rumors

The NHL free-agent market has been picked almost clean of notable talent since the flurry of signings when the market opened on July 1. While signings continue, they are largely depth players or promising prospects chosen in the 2024 NHL draft.

Fourteen players filed for salary arbitration by the July 5 deadline, with hearings scheduled for July 20 to Aug. 4. As is usually the case, they could all be settled before their cases go before an arbitrator.

With the draft and the start of free agency now history, the offseason business of hockey is slowing down. That also meant a slowdown in activity in the rumor mill, as most of the notable players on our June Trade Block Big Board and Free Agent Big Board have moved on to other clubs or re-signed with their current ones.

Nevertheless, the rumor mill is still churning some interesting conjecture on such noteworthy stars as Pittsburgh Penguins captain Sidney Crosby and Winnipeg Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers. Follow along as we employ our trust BS Meter to separate fact from fiction and express your thoughts in our app comments below.

Montréal Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes has had a good offseason thus far. His club landed promising forwards Ivan Demidov and Michael Hage in the first round of the 2024 NHL draft and signed rising star Juraj Slafkovský to an eight-year, $60.8 million contract extension on July 1.

However, Hughes still must address the Canadiens’ need for more scoring. The Montreal Gazette‘s Stu Cowan cited former Vegas Golden Knights winger Jonathan Marchessault saying he had good talks with the Habs GM during the opening day of free agency. Nevertheless, Marchessault signed with the Nashville Predators.

On July 4, Sportsnet’s Eric Engels noted the free-agent market was thinning out for scoring forwards. He speculated Hughes could go the trade route this summer for immediate help or a player who can help the Canadiens now and in the future. Engels pointed out the Canadiens have plenty of draft picks and promising young defensemen to use as trade bait.

Cowan shares Engel’s opinion. On July 6, he expressed his belief that Hughes would pursue a trade for a top-six forward before the start of the regular season. He could acquire a young scorer or a forward with the potential to become a scorer, or a veteran with two or three years left on his contract.

BS Meter: Not BS

Hughes has a history of making noteworthy moves later in the offseason. He acquired Sean Monahan from the Calgary Flames in August 2022 and took part in the three-team deal that shipped Erik Karlsson from the San Jose Sharks to the Pittsburgh Penguins last August.

The Edmonton Oilers wasted little time making moves during this offseason to prepare for another run at the Stanley Cup in 2025. When free agency opened on July 1, acting general manager Jeff Jackson signed forwards Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner and re-signed the checking line of Connor Brown, Adam Henrique, and Mattias Janmark.

Those moves put the Oilers over the $88 million salary cap by $2.5 million. On July 2, The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent-Bowman suggested the Oilers had to make a cost-cutting trade. He suggested Evander Kane, Cody Ceci, Brett Kulak, or Ryan McLeod could become trade candidates.

The Oilers shipped McLeod to the Buffalo Sabres along with minor-leaguer Tyler Tullio for prospect center Matt Savoie on July 5. However, Nugent-Bowman’s colleague Allan Mitchell pointed out they’ll need to free up $3 million to accommodate signing restricted free agents Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg.

Mitchell speculates Kane could end up on long-term injury reserve to start the season to recover from a suspected hip injury. Otherwise, the Oilers will have to make another trade to free up cap room or send three low-cost depth players to the minors and start the season with a 20-man roster.

BS Meter: Not BS

Mitchell considers it unlikely Kane will be eligible for LTIR. Trading him is a long shot because he carries a $5.1 million average annual value through 2025-26 and a full no-movement clause. That could mean peddling Ceci ($3.3 million AAV) or Kulak ($2.8 million) instead.

Questions arose over Tristan Jarry’s
future with the Pittsburgh Penguins soon after the club signed backup
Alex Nedeljkovic to a two-year contract extension on June 20. It
began with Mark Madden of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review suggesting
the Penguins had to trade Jarry or face a potential logjam between
the pipes.

Madden believes signing Nedeljkovic
blocks the way for promising Joel Blomqvist to crack the Penguins’
lineup unless they intend to trade Jarry. He acknowledged moving the
29-year-old goalie won’t be easy because of his $5.4 million average
annual value through 2027-28. Jarry also has a 12-team no-trade list.

Nevertheless, other pundits also
pondered Jarry’s future with the Penguins. On June 25, Sportsnet’s
Elliotte Friedman wondered if he could be in play in the trade
market.

The Athletic’s Rob Rossi followed up
two days later reporting the Penguins informed teams that Jarry was
available. However, he also indicated the club was prepared to go
into 2024-25 with Jarry and Nedeljkovic as their tandem.

BS Meter: It’s BS

Jarry’s
inconsistent play last season is the main factor behind the trade
conjecture. That performance combined with his contract makes him difficult to move. Jarry and Nedeljkovic will start
the season as their goalie tandem while Blomqvist gets more seasoning
with their AHL affiliate.

Winnipeg Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers has been a frequent fixture in the offseason rumor mill. The 28-year-old Dane garnered the No. 2 spot on our July NHL Trade Block rankings. He carries a $6 million cap hit for 2024-25 and a 10-team no-trade list.

On July 6, The Hockey News‘ Stefen Rosner cited sources claiming the Carolina Hurricanes were “pushing heavily” for Ehlers. He also didn’t rule out the possibility of the New York Islanders getting into the bidding for the Jets winger.

Rosner suggested it made sense for the Hurricanes to pursue Ehlers. They were forced to trade winger Jake Guentzel to the Tampa Bay Lightning on June 30 or risk his departure as an unrestricted free agent.

The Hurricanes also have to deal with restricted free agent Martin Nečas, whom they might be reluctant to move after losing Guentzel. Nevertheless, Rosner believes they could win a bidding war for Ehlers by offering up Nečas, though he thinks the Jets would have to include something with Ehlers in that deal because Nečas is more valuable.

BS Meter: Not BS

The Hurricanes could attempt to bolster their forward lines after losing Guentzel, Teuvo Teräväinen and Stefen Noesen in free agency. Acquiring Ehlers could help, but he’d be a tight fit within their cap. They’ve got $11.7 million available but must re-sign Nečas, Seth Jarvis and Jack Drury. Jarvis alone could eat up over half of their cap room.

Sidney Crosby has been the face of the Pittsburgh Penguins since they chose him first overall in the 2005 NHL draft. With one season remaining in his 12-year contract (a relic from the days before the imposition of term limits on player contracts), the 36-year-old center was eligible to July 1 to sign a contract extension with the Penguins.

Some observers raised their eyebrows when July 1 passed with no announcement from the Penguins or Crosby of a new deal. Pittsburgh Hockey Now’s Dan Kingerski wondered if the club’s on-ice struggles over the past two years and its current direction might make the Penguins captain reluctant to re-sign.

Penguins followers had to be mollified on July 8 when The Athletic’s Rob Rossi reported Crosby was getting close to signing an extension. While providing no details, Rossi cited sources claiming that both sides were confident that a deal would agreed upon and finalized soon.

Crosby’s current average annual value is $8.7 million, which proved to be a bargain for the Penguins throughout the deal. Rossi speculated back on Apr. 24 that it could be a three-year extension with an AAV of $10 million.

BS Meter: Not BS

Rossi wouldn’t be reporting this unless a deal was close at hand given Crosby’s importance to the Penguins. Despite concerns from Pittsburgh fans and pundits over the current state of the team after missing the playoffs for the last two years, it seems Crosby will finish his NHL career as a Penguin.

Salary cap information via Puck Pedia.