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Blame guide: Odds, analysis, PPs for Churchill feature

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Blame guide: Odds, analysis, PPs for Churchill feature

Saturday is Stephen Foster preview day at Churchill Downs, and anchoring the action is the Grade 3, $275,000 Blame Stakes.

A prelude to the Stephen Foster Stakes (G1) on June 29, the Blame will task a field of 11 with a 1 1/8-mile journey around the Louisville, Ky., oval.

Post time for the Blame, the 10th of 11 races on the program, is scheduled for 5:27 p.m. EDT. The race will be broadcast live on FanDuel TV.

Visit Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page today for downloadable PPs for the Blame and more courtesy of our partners at Brisnet.

We also have Super Screener picks and analysis for the Blame as well as recent top speed figures for each contender.

Blame Stakes best speed figures

Post Horse ML Beyer TimeformUS HRN
  1 Frosted Departure 15-1   99 121 106
  2 Highland Falls   5-2 104 123 106
  3 War Campaign   9-2   97 122 108
  4 Uncle Jake 30-1   90 116 106
  5 Tapit Trice   3-1 100 118 105
  6 Dreamlike   4-1 104 126 109
  7 Classic Causeway 30-1 100 119 102
  8 Last Samurai 20-1 105 125 107
  9 Cagliostro   6-1   98 123 101
10 Five Star General 30-1   97 118 108
11 Trademark 12-1 102 128 105

Looking at the pace

Long shot Five Star General is projected to go out and set a fast pace in the Blame Stakes, with Frosted Departure giving chase from his inside draw along with Uncle Jake.

Race favorites Highland Falls, Tapit Trice, and Dreamlike are all expected to linger at the back early on.

Pace projector appears courtesy of TimeformUS.

HRN picks for the Blame Stakes

This week’s Super Screener has picks for all the Saturday stakes at Churchill Downs, including the Shawnee Stakes (G3) featuring Hoosier Philly.

“Hoosier Philly may get overlooked some in the wagers, but form-cycle analysis is flashing a bullish signal for her return to her previous top-established form,” Mike Shutty said. “She really did appear to go off form last year but appears to be rounding back into top form while returning to Churchill, where she is undefeated in three starts. She is sitting on a big performance and is a viable win contender offering value.”

Get the Belmont Stakes through Breeders’ Cup Super Screener package now for just $127, a savings of $360.

Speaking of the Belmont Stakes, Ed DeRosa’s updated Belmont Stakes fair odds see Sierra Leone and Mindframe taking the most money following the defection of Fierceness.

J. Keeler Johnson is eager to see Highland Falls get back to racing in the Blame Stakes, and he explains why in his latest Horses to Watch column.

Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis went Head-to-Head handicapping the Blame Stakes and agreed that Highland Falls should hit the superfecta along with long shot Frosted Departure, but they diverged regarding the chances of Tapit Trice.

Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman previewed the Blame Stakes and the Belmont Stakes, among other races, in the latest edition of HorseCenter.

NYRA TV analyst Sara Elbadwi joined the Ron Flatter Racing Pod to share some early analysis of the Belmont Stakes as well as the Met Mile.

Here’s the field for the Blame Stakes (G3):

Post Silks Horse / Sire Rating Trainer / Jockey Last Start / Next Start HRN
1 Frosted Departure

Frosted

6.15

Kenneth G. McPeek

Julien R. Leparoux

1st, 2024 Lake Ouachita LS

2024 Blame G3

15-1

Last Race

Next Race

1st, 2024 Lake Ouachita LS

2024 Blame G3

2 Highland Falls

Curlin

6.74

Brad H. Cox

Florent Geroux

2nd, 2024 Oaklawn Handicap G2

2024 Blame G3

5-2

Last Race

Next Race

2nd, 2024 Oaklawn Handicap G2

2024 Blame G3

3 War Campaign

Declaration of War

5.09

Philip A. Sims

Tyler Gaffalione

2nd, 2024 Ben Ali G3

2024 Blame G3

9-2

Last Race

Next Race

2nd, 2024 Ben Ali G3

2024 Blame G3

4 Uncle Jake

Uncle Mo

0.00

Carlo E Vaccarezza

Joel Rosario

3rd, CD AOC (05/27/2024-R5)

2024 Blame G3

30-1

Last Race

Next Race

3rd, CD AOC (05/27/2024-R5)

2024 Blame G3

5 Tapit Trice

Tapit

7.55

Todd A. Pletcher

Flavien Prat

3rd, 2023 Travers Stakes G1

2024 Blame G3

3-1

Last Race

Next Race

3rd, 2023 Travers Stakes G1

2024 Blame G3

6 Dreamlike

Gun Runner

6.04

Todd A. Pletcher

Irad Ortiz, Jr.

2nd, KEE ALW (04/19/2024-R8)

2024 Blame G3

4-1

Last Race

Next Race

2nd, KEE ALW (04/19/2024-R8)

2024 Blame G3

7 Classic Causeway

Giant’s Causeway

6.70

Kenneth G. McPeek

Brian J. Hernandez, Jr.

4th, CD AOC (05/27/2024-R5)

2024 Blame G3

30-1

Last Race

Next Race

4th, CD AOC (05/27/2024-R5)

2024 Blame G3

8 Last Samurai

Malibu Moon

6.11

Eddie Milligan Jr.

Cristian A. Torres

6th, 2024 Oaklawn Handicap G2

2024 Blame G3

20-1

Last Race

Next Race

6th, 2024 Oaklawn Handicap G2

2024 Blame G3

9 Cagliostro

Upstart

3.84

Cherie DeVaux

Jose L. Ortiz

1st, KEE ALW (04/19/2024-R8)

2024 Blame G3

6-1

Last Race

Next Race

1st, KEE ALW (04/19/2024-R8)

2024 Blame G3

10 Five Star General

Distorted Humor

6.17

Grant T. Forster

Corey J. Lanerie

1st, CD AOC (05/27/2024-R5)

2024 Blame G3

30-1

Last Race

Next Race

1st, CD AOC (05/27/2024-R5)

2024 Blame G3

11 Trademark

Upstart

6.08

Victoria H. Oliver

Martin Garcia

7th, 2024 Alysheba G2

2024 Blame G3

12-1

Last Race

Next Race

7th, 2024 Alysheba G2

2024 Blame G3

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