Blame fair odds: Vulnerable favorite is a key to play

A key part of handicapping the Grade 3 Blame Stakes is that three of the 11 entrants all ran Monday and all have officially scratched Saturday at Churchill Downs. That leaves a field of eight for the local prep for the Stephen Foster Stakes (G1).

More importantly, though, all three of the scratched horses had the potential to affect the pace given their front-running styles. That improves the chances of Frosted Departure and Trademark. If the public greatly ignores either with the likes of Highland Falls and Tapit Trice in here, then they could be worth a play as front-end threats.

The outside no. 8 post position is not too bad going nine furlongs at Churchill, and Trademark has the speed to lead. Unfortunately, he is the highweight here at 123 pounds while all others tote 118. Frosted Departure could get the jump under Julien Leparoux and is dangerous in the smaller field. Again, price sensitivity is key here, but if either is a bomb then I’m interested.

Of the two obvious favorites, I prefer Tapit Trice and not just because he was my pick to win the 2023 Kentucky Derby. He’s shown an ability to lie closer to the pace if needed, and I expect sharpness off the layoff and as a 4-year-old.

Highland Falls can win, of course, but he is only as fast, at best, as others such as Cagliostro. Tapit Trice at his best is clearly fastest of this group.

Wagering-wise, I’ll be looking to sneak Frosted Departure or Trademark in the number with Tapit Trice, assuming my top pick is not favored. Cagliostro is who I’m most excited about of the “mid-tier” contenders who I have between 5-1 and 10-1 on my fair-odds line.