Biggest Flight Risks In 2024 NBA Free Agency

Most of the 2024 NBA free agent class should be expected to stay in their current homes.

Tyrese Maxey is a restricted free agent and almost certainly getting the max from the Philadelphia 76ers. The Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks will pay up to retain Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby after giving up a lot in trades a few months ago. Veterans like James Harden and Klay Thompson should be happy to stay in their California homes as well.

Instead, we’re looking at the biggest flight risks in free agency, or the players most likely to leave and sign with a new team.

Whether it be trying to latch on to a contender, seeking a bigger payday elsewhere or simply leaving what’s become a bad situation, we’ve identified the five biggest free agents (along with a few potential movers) to sign elsewhere this offseason.

Paul George, G/F, Los Angeles Clippers

George and the Clippers have failed for months to come to terms on an extension, and the veteran wing has a $48.8 million player option he can turn down to become a free agent.

The Philadelphia 76ers will roll out the red carpet for Paul, yet can’t outbid the Clippers. Los Angeles can still offer slightly more money overall ($221 million over four years compared to $212 million) and won’t want to lose their All-Star forward before moving into a new arena.

Los Angeles will end up paying Paul more than Kawhi Leonard to get him to stay.

Isaiah Hartenstein, C, New York Knicks

There’s no on-court reason for Hartenstein to leave the Knicks after establishing himself as a quality starting center this season. New York possessing early bird rights on the 26-year-old center means they can only offer up to $72.5 million over a four-year deal, however.

It would take a team with a need at center and cap space to make a real run at Hartenstein, with no real contenders sticking out. The Oklahoma City Thunder could try and pair him next to Chet Holmgren or the Orlando Magic could make a run if they feel Hartenstein is an upgrade over Wendell Carter Jr.

Both the Knicks and Hartenstein should want to stay together, however. Don’t be surprised if a new contract comes in at the max amount New York can offer.

LeBron James, F, Los Angeles Lakers

Currently possessing the most valuable player option to date in NBA history at $51.4 million, James could stay in Los Angeles and extend off his current deal or choose to become a free agent.

The Philadelphia 76ers look like the only real threat to sign James, assuming he’s not interested in playing for the mid-level exception just yet. Still, moving across the country with two kids still in the house to play for a fourth NBA franchise may not be the best thing for James personally or professionally.

James will likely end up taking his $160 million in some fashion, staying in Los Angeles and putting pressure on the organization to bring in a third star.

Kudos to Tobias Harris for playing out the entirety of his five-year, $180 million contract with the Philadelphia 76ers and no one really blinking an eye at his salary (perhaps there were always other things to talk about with the Philadelphia 76ers). Signed at 30 percent of the cap in 2019, that deal would be the same as Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton’s five-year, $245.3 million contracts today.

The 76ers possess max cap space, yet giving a chunk of it to Harris seems to be far down on Philly’s wish list. Daryl Morey is going to use that money to go All-Star hunting instead.

Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer wrote that the Sixers want “a maximum-salary player via free agency or a trade from a pool that includes Los Angeles Clippers forward Paul George, Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James, Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler, and New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram.”

Harris shouldn’t wait around and see if the Sixers bring in his replacement before taking his own free agent visits.

A return to the Detroit Pistons could come with a hefty contract. Teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder and Charlotte Hornets have cap space and potential starting jobs for Harris as well.

We can’t completely rule out a return to the Sixers just yet (especially if they strike out on all four main targets), but it appears this relationship has run its course.

If Harris signs another big contract in Detroit or somewhere else, perhaps he can send a few boxes of Crumbl Cookies back to the good fans in Philly.

Potential New Homes: Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, Oklahoma City Thunder

Malik Monk is in a similar situation to Isaiah Hartenstein of the New York Knicks. Both are coming off two-year deals signed with their teams that limits the amount of money the team can pay them without using cap space.

Using early bird rights, the Sacramento Kings can only offer Monk up to $77.9 million over four years on a contract that begins at $17.4 million next season.

The 26-year-old looked like he found a home in Sacramento, as he averaged a career-high 15.4 points and 5.1 assists in just 26.0 minutes off the bench, finishing second in Sixth Man of the Year voting.

Unlike Hartenstein, however, it’s easy to find potential homes for Monk both as a starting shooting guard or sixth man, making the risk of losing him for the Kings far greater.

The Orlando Magic can get all the way to $66.6 million in cap space if they wanted to and could offer Monk the starting two-guard spot next to Jalen Suggs. The Detroit Pistons have max cap space as well, and even Monk’s old team, the Charlotte Hornets, would be a potential fit between LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller.

It’s been a good two years for Monk in Sacramento, but no one could blame him for taking the biggest contract he can get now. Remember that Monk spent the 2021-22 season playing for the Los Angeles Lakers on a minimum deal after the Hornets didn’t even extend him a qualifying offer.

Potential New Homes: Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets

The New Orleans Pelicans are going to be one of the most interesting teams to keep tabs on this summer.

“I think in the past we’ve always erred on the side of continuity,” Pelicans Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations David Griffin said, “and our takeaway has always been ‘Let’s see this group healthy.’ (Now) I think we’ve seen this group enough.”

Griffin is essentially promising changes around Zion Williamson, with Valančiūnas’s future very much in doubt.

The 32-year-old center is an unrestricted free agent who’s seen his overall usage, minutes and shot attempts fall each of the last three seasons in New Orleans. Williamson has essentially abandoned his outside shooting (six total made threes in 70 games), which makes the fit between him and Valančiūnas (0.5 a game on 30.8 percent shooting) a little awkward.

The Pelicans, a franchise that’s never paid the luxury tax, are only about $13.6 million below the line even without a new contract for Valančiūnas, who made $15.4 million this past season. It appears far more likely that New Orleans would trade Brandon Ingram for help at center or point guard and promote Trey Murphy III to a full-time starting role instead of re-signing Valančiūnas.

The veteran center is still a capable starter on the right team, yet may have to settle for the mid-level exception from a contender.

Potential New Homes: Oklahoma City Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies, Brooklyn Nets (if Nic Claxton doesn’t re-sign)

Even before the Los Angeles Lakers were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported that it was “likely” Russell would turn down his $18.7 million player option and become a free agent.

Russell did have a strong regular season in L.A. (18.0 points, 6.3 assists, 41.5 percent shooting from three) yet endured another rough playoff series. Through 32 career postseason games with three different franchises, Russell is shooting just 38.8 percent overall.

It’s tough to find a team who’d be willing and able to offer Russell more than this $18.7 million per season, however.

The Orlando Magic could use a shot of offense and have significant cap space. The Detroit Pistons should be desperate for some veteran talent. Outside of these franchises, however, Russell may have to settle for the $12.9 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception with a team like the Sacramento Kings to be a sixth man if Malik Monk leaves.

It would be better for both Russell and the Lakers if he opts in and Los Angeles is able to use his salary in a trade. Assuming LeBron James is back with the Lakers, the team won’t have the cap space to go out and sign a player of Russell’s caliber in free agency.

Given the way the playoffs ended the past two years for Russell and the Lakers, there’s a sense that both parties are ready to move on. Russell turning down his player option is the fastest way out.

Potential New Homes: Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, Sacramento Kings

There’s absolutely no reason for DeMar DeRozan to return to the Chicago Bulls next season.

The Bulls are going nowhere, stuck in the middle of the NBA pack with no elite young talent and not enough veteran help to even get them into the playoffs. Trying to find any sort of quality return in a Zach LaVine trade is going to be a struggle.

DeRozan’s had a great three years with the Bulls from an individual standpoint, but will turn 35 in August and should be playing for a team that has a chance at a title and not just wallowing in the play-in waters year after year.

Chicago has to choose a direction and should be interested in helping DeRozan find a new home via a sign-and-trade. Such a move would hard cap his new team at the first tax apron ($178.7 million in total salaries), eliminating a number of high-priced contenders.

DeRozan could field offers from contenders with cap space like the Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic, but would need to be patient and accept the fact that he won’t be Plan A or B for either. Going home to Los Angeles in a sign-and-trade with the Lakers could work if D’Angelo Russell turns down his $18.7 million player option (to get L.A. below the first apron) and Los Angeles sends some combination of Rui Hachimura ($17 million), Austin Reaves ($12.9 million), Gabe Vincent ($11.0 million) and Jarred Vanderbilt ($10.7 million) back in return.

Running it back with the Bulls shouldn’t be an option for DeRozan, who deserves to play for a team with a real chance at winning a championship next season.

Potential New Homes: Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers