Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for NFL’s Biggest Boom-or-Bust Teams in 2024

You know how the NFL works. Any given Sunday, any given year. It doesn’t take much to go from boom to bust or vice versa.

However, each year, several teams stand out as particularly obvious all-or-nothing squads that could either be damn good or astonishingly bad.

These are those teams for 2024, along with the extreme potential scenarios they may face…

Boom: Surrounded by a group of extremely talented offensive weapons, a reinvigorated and healthy Kirk Cousins picks up where he left off statistically pre-injury in 2023 and leads Atlanta deep into the playoffs with an easy NFC South victory.

Bust: At age 36 and coming off a major Achilles injury, Cousins doesn’t connect well with his new teammates and the Falcons win seven or fewer games for the seventh year in a row.

Prediction: They win 10 games because the talent is there and the division is soft, but it’s another classic wild-card defeat for the aging quarterback.

Boom: Top pick Caleb Williams lives up to expectations and pulls off a C.J. Stroud-like rookie season, and a constantly improving Bears team builds on a 2023 campaign in which it won four of its last six games. They make the playoffs as a wild-card entry.

Bust: Williams doesn’t acclimate as well as expected and it’s a lot more Bryce Young-like in 2024 for him and a Chicago squad that will almost certainly have a huge challenge with Detroit and Green Bay in the NFC North.

Prediction: Williams is a better player than Young, and he’s got a lot more support. They’ll win eight or nine games and make more progress, but the NFC is too deep for them to make a playoff run right now.

Boom: That remarkable 2023 campaign was just a taste of what was to come for Stroud and Co., and additions Danielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs put the Texans over the top in a shocking run to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans.

Bust: After spending much of the offseason studying his 2023 tape, opponents figure out how to slow down Stroud, and the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year experiences a sophomore slump while Jacksonville or Indianapolis take off in the AFC South.

Prediction: The talent is there and so is the mindset. They win a dozen or more games, take the South and push the Kansas City Chiefs hard in the AFC title game.

Boom: After a year of mostly observing and learning, Anthony Richardson takes off in Year 2 and a Colts team that managed to win nine games without him in 2023 takes the AFC South in ’24.

Bust: Richardson either again can’t stay healthy or is rusty in his first full NFL campaign, and an Indianapolis team that didn’t do much to address a poor defense in the offseason actually takes a step backward in the win column.

Prediction: Regardless of what happens with Richardson, the Colts might still be a year away. They’ll win eight or nine games but miss out on the playoffs.

Boom: Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman get more out of Justin Herbert than previous coaching staffs could, and the 26-year-old finally takes off and carries a good-not-great team to a point of overachievement.

Bust: The transition to a new offense doesn’t go smoothly for Herbert and Co., and a roster that took plenty of offseason hits regresses even further in a tough division.

Prediction: It would be great to see Harbaugh and Herbert make magic, but the support isn’t there and I’m not totally convinced of either. With a difficult road ahead, I see them again settling for double-digit losses.

Boom: A year after going just 1-5 against playoff teams, with the offense significantly less productive than usual in those contests, Tua Tagovailoa and Co. finally start winning when it matters and make a run to the Super Bowl.

Bust: Tagovailoa either is re-haunted by the injuries that threatened his career in 2022, or he continues to fail to get it done in critical spots with even less support following some tough offseason departures.

Prediction: I wish Tua well from a health standpoint, but I don’t trust him regardless and the Dolphins have a taller task this year than they did in 2023. They’ll win nine or 10 games but go no further than the wild-card round.

Boom: With a statement to make, Aaron Rodgers has a season reminiscent of the ones Tom Brady put together when he jumped from the Patriots to the Buccaneers at a somewhat similar age. He stays healthy and benefits from a tremendous defense and the Jets make a deep playoff run.

Bust: Now 40 and coming off a major injury, Rodgers proves that he’s washed up and also becomes a distraction as the Jets post a losing record for the ninth consecutive year.

Prediction: Quarterbacks don’t often excel at or beyond 40, and there’s little reason to expect Rodgers to buck that trend. He hasn’t been a strong asset at quarterback since 2021, and it’s easy to question his focus and commitment. The Jets will once again finish far out of contention in 2024.

Boom: Russell Wilson or Justin Fields put it together and excel in a new setting, and an always competitive team with a very talented defense makes a surprise run toward the Super Bowl.

Bust: Both Wilson and Fields fall on their faces, key cogs like Cam Heyward and Minkah Fitzpatrick again can’t stay on the field, and the Steelers finally have a losing season.

Prediction: I really believe Wilson has the ability to bounce back in a fresh location, and competition with Fields should help. It at least gives the Steelers two dice to throw, and it’s easy to believe in Mike Tomlin and that D. They’ll win 10 games again.