Our form expert tipped two winners from three selections at 15/2 and 9/1 last weekend and he has two tips for Saturday’s action at York and Sandown.
The Verdict: Saturday, June 15
1pt win Mascapone in 2.05 Sandown at 9/1 (bet365, 8/1 General)
1pt e.w Vince L’Amour in the 3.35 York at 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Lots of love for L’Amour in feature
Tim Easterby has won the Churchill Tyres Supporting Macmillan Sprint at York five times this century and his sole representative this year, VINCE L’AMOUR, looks underestimated at a big price.
All five of those winners carried less than nine stone to victory and Easterby has become a master at getting them in the race in the bottom half of the handicap, something he has pulled off again with this son of Invincible Army.
This horse has a similar profile to his 2014 winner, See The Sun, who ran over five furlongs at Chester on his previous start, before he used his five-furlong speed to gain a prominent position on the Knavesmire that he didn’t relinquish.
We could well see similar tactics from James Sullivan on Vince L’Amour from stall 15, as the selection is at his best when he gets out in front and, after four consecutive runs over five furlongs, he is nicely unexposed over six.
Indeed, since his first two starts he has only raced over six furlongs on the one occasion, bolting up in a canter by over five lengths from a couple of subsequent winners in a handicap at Ripon in April, a race Easterby wins regularly with his most progressive three-year-old sprinters.
It’s not the only form of his that looks strong as two starts later he ran in a red-hot Chester race where he finished second to Knicks in a photo, with subsequent Epsom and Thirsk winners, Blue Point and Kings Merchant, behind in fourth and fifth respectively.
He did run disappointingly at York after that, but it came too soon after Chester and a line is best drawn through the run, while he has already bounced back with a better effort after he was sixth in the 19-runner 3YO ‘Dash’ at Epsom on Derby day.
That was encouraging and he can rediscover his best form now he tackles six furlongs again, a trip more in line with his breeding, and with the unsettled weather forecast in mind it’s a case of the more rain that falls the better for him.
Of course, it’s a really competitive race and cases can be made for plenty. William Haggas has won this race before with a horse dropping a furlong in trip in first-time headgear and his Elmonjed is an obvious contender, while the top three or four in the weights all warrant respect.
However, Vince L’Amour looks the one they all have to fear from the bottom of the handicap and in receipt of plenty of weight he looks a big price for a trainer who knows exactly what it takes to win this race.
The Verdict: Back VINCE L’AMOUR in the 3.35 York
Chance Mascapone to leave it late
Elsewhere bets are thin on the ground but I do think there’s an angle into the Listen To BetMGM On Talksport Handicap at Sandown over a mile where there looks likely to be a strong pace.
It is always tempting to side with the prominent racers at this track given how the races tend to pan out but with Bill Silvers, Vultar, Dancing Magic, Hiromichi, Two Tempting and Helm Rock all likely to be jostling for position on or towards the lead this could set up for the closers.
Drawn out in stall 15 is David Simcock’s MASCAPONE and he’s ridden by Jamie Spencer. He has been held up in all of his career runs to date and given where he breaks from that will almost certainly be the case again, so we know what we’re in for.
I’m prepared for a white-knuckle ride and I wouldn’t expect Spencer to start his challenge before the final quarter mile, but at around 8/1 I’m prepared to take the risk as he could be very well handicapped off 89.
The son of Massaat has clearly been difficult to train as he’s had just five starts in three seasons and he’s had plenty of time between his races, not least the 582 days he was off before he returned at Newcastle in May.
However, he’s clearly though to be worth persevering with and nearly all of his form points towards him having a chance off 89, especially his two efforts in handicap company either side of the long absence.
He caught the eye at Newcastle behind Eldrickjones on May 12, travelling well in the rear before doing his best work at the finish, a lovely reappearance for one that had been off the track over a year and a half.
Simcock does well with this type of lightly-raced older horse and particularly when they are eventually unleashed over the correct trip, as looks to be the case here now he tackles a mile for the first time.
He’s bred for even further, but this extra furlong looks sure to unlock improvement and if he comes on for that first outing in ages last time the progression could be significant.
The bounce factor is on my mind, as we don’t really know how he’ll take his racing, so he’s a win-only bet, with fingers firmly crossed he’s fine on that score.
The Verdict: Back MASCAPONE in the 2.05 Sandown
Preview posted at 1435 BST on 14/06/24
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