Belmont Stakes Picks 2024: Vegas Odds and Predictions After Post Draw

There’s no Triple Crown in play this year, but we will get to see a Kentucky Derby Winner and Preakness winner meet in the final leg of the historic race series.

This year’s race will be notable for a few reason. For one, the Belmont won’t be taking place at the Belmont this year. Due to renovations going on at Belmont Park, the race will temporarily move to the Saratoga Race Course and only be contested at 1¼ miles this year.

That makes it a little less grueling than the traditional 1½ mile distance we typically see.

It’s also drawn a relatively large field for the Belmont. Ten horses, including Mystik Dan and Seize the Grey, will be running for the carnations.

With the post draw complete, here’s a look at the field with morning-line odds and post positions as well as a preview and prediction for the race.

1. Seize the Gray 8-1

2. Resilience 10-1

3. Mystik Dan 5-1

4. The Wine Steward 15-1

5. Antiquarian 12-1

6. Dornoch 15-1

7. Protective 20-1

8. Honor Marie 12-1

9. Sierra Leone 9-5

10. Mindframe 7-2

Odds via BelmontStakes.com.

This is a fun field with a good mix of proven winners, Derby contenders looking to bounce back and some relative unknowns.

Despite Mystik Dan and Seize the Grey winning the first two American Classics, it’s Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone who is the morning-line favorite. The Chad Brown charge was the runner-up in the photo finish Derby, losing to Mystik Dan by a nostril.

He was one of the favorites heading into the Derby. Coming off a dominant performance in which he posted a 107 Equibase speed figure at the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes in Keeneland, he’s one of the most talented three-year-olds in this year’s class.

Brown and his connections sat him out of the Preakness with an eye on capturing their moment in the winner’s circle at the Belmont.

Mindframe is a relative unknown compared to some of the other entries, but he’s been installed as the second choice. It’s a bold choice. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt has only made two starts, most recently he won an undercard race on Derby Day.

The speed figures are there for him to make a run at things, but he’ll need to find the pace early. He’s also facing a big step up in class and distance.

Mystik Dan is the third betting choice at 5-1 odds. The Derby winner has obviously proven that he can hang with the best horses in the race and has the win over Sierra Leone. It’s not a stretch to believe he can do it again.

Trainer Ken McPeek is taking a rare risk, though. Not many horses start in all three legs of the Triple Crown without a chance to win it. Orb was the last horse to do it in 2013. There’s a reason for that. The turnaround for each subsequent leg is progressively difficult. It would be understandable if we don’t see the best version of the colt at Saratoga.

Seize the Grey rounds out the horses with single-digit odds. Coming off an impressive win at the Preakness, his connections will hope to ride that momentum into a share of the $2 million purse.

He has a few things working against him, though. For one there’s a little more speed in this field than the one he saw at the Preakness. That enabled him to set a relatively slow pace early and hold off all competitors down the stretch.

As far as long shots go, Anitquarian is worth a look. He’s one of three entries from Todd Pletcher in the race. Mindframe will get most of the attention out of the trio, but Antiquarian was impressive in a win at the Peter Pan Stakes and he outran fellow Belmont entrant The Wine Steward down the stretch.

Those who have come up short in the Kentucky Derby and come back in the Belmont have had a good track record. Twelve of the last 24 winners in New York have followed that path.

Sierra Leone is in good position to make it 13 out of 25. There are multiple contenders who could also keep the tradition alive. Resilience (6th), Honor Marie (8th) and Dornoch (10th) are all worth consideration.

But none of them came nearly as close as Sierra Leone did to winning the roses.

Flavien Prat will draw the mount on Saturday with a chance to help the horse reach his potential. Tyler Gaffalione was aboard the colt at the Derby so the change of jockey might work in his favor as a different approach could change the horse’s luck this time around.

He’ll need to work toward the pace earlier in the race this time, but this feel’s like Sierra Leone’s turn to shine.

Prediction: Sierra Leone Wins