Belmont Stakes fair odds: Taking on the favorite at Saratoga

The classic distance of 1 1/4 miles is considered by many historians of the turf to be the great equalizer, as it requires the perfect balance of brilliance and stamina to excel at the classic level.

That is not to say, however, that typical considerations of pace dynamics are not in play depending on where a race is happening.

So it goes with the this year’s Belmont Stakes, which gets not only a change of venue for its 156th (and 157th) running but also a change in distance from 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park to 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga.

Ten furlongs is the distance of a trio of Saratoga’s marquee events in the summer: The Grade 1 Alabama for 3-year-old fillies, the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) for Breeders’ Cup Classic hopefuls and the Travers Stakes (G1) for 3-year-olds. So we have a decent sample size of how the track plays for the top level of equine athlete.

To put it kindly, the profile is not ideal for likely favorite Sierra Leone. There have been 36 races at 1 1/4 miles since 2015 on dirt at Saratoga, and …

• Eight were won gate-to-wire, including three of the 10 last year
• Two-thirds of the winners were first or second by the half-mile pole (six furlongs into the race)
• Half the winners made the lead by the quarter pole, and no eventual winner was worse than sixth at that point
• Only one eventual winner, Eskimo Kisses in the 2018 Alabama, was last at any point in the race, and even she was in front by the eighth pole.

Of course Sierra Leone can win. His Blue Grass Stakes (G1) win and Kentucky Derby runner-up performances are among the best we’ve seen from this crop, but the actual winner of the Kentucky Derby, Mystik Dan, shows up here as well and figures again to get a more ideal trip than the favorite.

Preakness Stakes winner Seize the Grey also is present, and I am curious about the plan with him. He is almost certain not to be lone speed again, and he does not have to be. He won a one-turn mile sitting just off the pace and can do similar here.

All that said, I like the brilliance we’ve already seen from Mindframe, who sat off a fast pace on debut before blitzing a field of overmatched allowance types last out. He is absolutely going to be the one to catch when the fields turns for home. At least he’d better be if he’s going to win.

My hope is that Sierra Leone and the two classic winners take enough money to make Mindframe worth a play here. I’m also interested in Resilience, who ran fine in the Derby and whose presence here for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott I see as a big positive given he rerouted Batten Down to the Ohio Derby (G3) later this month at Thistledown.