Belmont Stakes fair odds: How low will Sierra Leone go?

With news that Fierceness will skip the Belmont Stakes on June 8 at Saratoga Race Course that leaves Blue Grass Stakes winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone as a certain favorite for the third jewel of American Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown.

Sierra Leone was the likely favorite, anyway, over last year’s champion two-year-old male who finished 15th in the Derby, but Fierceness’s defection certainly cements it. With a dozen remaining on the possible list 8 days out, I have Sierra Leone 3-1 to win the Belmont. That will likely depress with additional defections, but it is difficult to see him offering value, as I think he could be as low as even money here.

Todd Pletcher trains Fierceness, but that does not mean the Racing Hall of Fame conditioner will be without a Belmont starter, as he still has three colts under consideration: Peter Pan Stakes winner Antiquarian, undefeated Mindframe and maiden Protective. Mike Repole owns Fierceness, Mindframe and Protective and posted on X that Mindframe-Protective is the Belmont exacta while Fierceness will win the Haskell. 

Mindframe can be a major pace presence here, as only Dornoch looks to have similar early zip at his best, but as you can see from my fair odds: I do not think much of his chances. Seize the Grey won the Preakness Stakes in gate-to-wire fashion, but I would expect a trip more similar to his Pat Day Mile (G2) victory.

Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and Seize the Grey are on a collision course for a rematch here with Mystik Dan being the only horse to compete in all three Triple Crown races. Seize the Grey will have competed on all three Triple Crown race days, as he won the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard. 

Both horses are likely underlays given the celebrity of their biggest wins but neither would surprise here. It is the first time since Orb and Oxbow in 2013 that different winners of the Derby and Preakness met in the Belmont. It is also the first time since Animal Kingdom and Shackleford in 2011 that neither winner was favored in their big win before the rubber match. None of the previous classic winners won the Belmont in either year with Palace Malice winning in 2013 and Ruler On Ice in 2011.

The previous meetings of different Derby-Preakness winners went to Preakness winners in both 2001 and 2005 when Point Given beat Monarchos and Afleet Alex beat Giacomo, respectively. Rubber matches were much more common in the late 20th century perhaps thanks in part to a financial bonus for participation in all three Triple Crown races.