Belmont Stakes 2024: Ranking the field 1st to last

Saratoga takes center stage Saturday as the historic track hosts the third jewel of the Triple Crown for the first time in its storied history.

The field of 10 includes Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and Preakness winner Seize the Grey, though neither is among the top two choices on the morning-line. Below I analyze how these two runners stack up against their peers while ranking the competitive Belmont Stakes field from first to last.

1. Sierra Leone, 9-5. The model of consistency is two noses away from being undefeated and continues to improve as the distances get longer. He ran an excellent race in the Kentucky Derby when suffering a wide trip and was arguably best that day. He should get just enough pace to close into and will be rolling late. The Chad Brown trainee is fresh and dangerous. Expect the talented son of Gun Runner to avenge his narrow Derby defeat with a resounding Belmont Stakes score.

2. Honor Marie, 12-1. The son of Honor Code is flying a bit under the radar heading into the Belmont Stakes and offers tremendous value. He has proven multiple times that he can compete with the top 3-year-olds in the crop and had a horrendous trip in the Kentucky Derby when running eighth. All things considered, he ran pretty well and should move forward with a freshening and a jockey change. He will be closing with Sierra Leone and will pass plenty of runners late. 

3. Mindframe, 7-2. The task is ambitious, but the talent is evident. Todd Pletcher’s colt could not have been more impressive in his first two starts and now steps way up in class and distance for start no. 3. He might just be good enough to pull off this tough feat. The pace of the race is likely to make or break his chances as he should be in the thick of it from the opening of the gate while getting the first jump on his main rivals. He is more likely to win than Honor Marie because it will take a freak effort to defeat Sierra Leone, but Honor Marie is a safer bet for the exotics as this colt’s gap between his floor and ceiling is wide.

4. Resilience, 10-1. The Grade 2 Wood Memorial winner ran a sneaky good sixth in the Kentucky Derby when making a strong middle move before fading late. Trainer Bill Mott has stated that he is not sure this colt will handle this distance, but he has improved nicely since adding the blinkers and could be a good value for the exotics. He should sit a nice trip tucked in behind the early speed. 

5. Seize the Grey, 8-1. Consistency has not always been his calling card, but he has put together two consecutive strong efforts in winning the Pat Day Mile (G2) and Preakness. D. Wayne Lukas is patient with his young horses and has a knack for getting them to peak this time of year. The question for this runner is whether he peaked when winning the Preakness His Beyer Speed Figure was 12 points higher than anything else he had ever put forth, and he got away with a fairly easy lead over a muddy track that he enjoyed. He will give a good account of himself, but a regression is likely.

6. Mystik Dan, 5-1. The Kentucky Derby winner ran another strong race in the Preakness, but does he have anything left in the tank as he takes on many fresh runners in this spot? Two of his three best races have come in the mud, and he enjoyed a perfect trip when winning the Kentucky Derby. He is a quality horse, but he has too much working against him for him to make serious noise once more. 

7. Antiquarian, 12-1. Arcangelo parlayed a win in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) to a score in the 2023 Belmont Stakes, but I do not see that happening this year. The 2024 Peter Pan was not the strongest renewal, and though this colt got up to win, he previously showed in the Louisiana Derby (G2) that he is not a serious threat against the upper echelon of this class.

8. Dornoch, 15-1. He was shuffled back from the tough rail draw in the Kentucky Derby and will be much closer to the early pace with a clean break on Saturday. Mage’s brother always has had ability, but he seems to be progressing at a slower rate than his 3-year-old counterparts after a strong 2-year-old year. Keep in mind that his win over Sierra Leone was six months ago and came before Sierra Leone added blinkers. A repeat of that effort would be surprising at this point. 

9. The Wine Steward, 15-1. He has never run worse than second in six career starts, but that streak is likely to come to an end Saturday. His consistency should be respected and he has a nice running style, but it is hard to imagine a horse who could not win the Lexington Stakes (G3) or Peter Pan capturing the Belmont.

10. Protective, 20-1. The maiden has held his own against winners at the graded-stakes level, but he would need to take another monumental step forward to compete against this field. He had every chance in the Peter Pan when chasing Antiquarian and The Wine Steward but could only settle for third. He will not be a factor on Saturday, and do not be surprised if he loses a maiden race in his ensuing start as well after being thrown in the deep end.