Belmont at Saratoga Picks: Belmont Stakes 2024 Odds and Predictions

Belmont Stakes Odds

Ten horses are set for the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday, June 8, as we’ll have the first running of the final leg of the Triple Crown at a different venue. This is the first time since 1967 that we’ll have the Belmont Stakes at a different track and just the second time since 1925 that the horses won’t be asked to go 1 ½ miles.

Because of the smaller Saratoga track, this year’s race will be at 1 ¼ miles. The 2020 installment of the Belmont during COVID was run at 1 ⅛ miles because of the relative lack of prep for the horses leading up to the June race.

We’ve got a good field for the 7 p.m. ET post time with both Triple Crown winners, runners-up, and other strong contenders.

Here are the 2024 Belmont Stakes at Saratoga entries and betting odds:

(odds from DK Horse on Friday, June 7 at 2 p.m. PT)

The 6-1 price on Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness Stakes runner-up Mystik Dan might be a little jarring, but that speaks to the depth of this field. The 1 ¼ mile ask of runners from both legs of the Triple Crown is a little easier than the normal ask, but Mystik Dan hasn’t gotten a whole lot of love this week to this point.

Derby runner-up Sierra Leone is the clear-cut favorite, with Preakness winner Seize The Grey very much in the mix as well.

Here are some more detailed notes on all the horses:

1. Seize The Grey (7-2; Lukas/Torres): The ownership collective MyRacehorse was always going to push this number down, as Seize The Grey was at an 8-1 price tag on the morning line. The rail post may not be that bad of a spot for a horse that likes to get out and either set the pace or press it, which was the key to victory in the Preakness. 

The Pat Day Mile winner had no issue with the distance upgrade at Pimlico after disappointing runs in the Blue Grass and Jeff Ruby at 1 ⅛ miles. I think the question here has to be whether or not we saw the peak for Seize The Grey three weeks ago or if he can follow up that career-best effort with another one. It might take that much to win here.

2. Resilience (11-1; Mott/Alvarado): The Wood Memorial winner is back in New York after finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby. The son of Into Mischief and Meadowsweet is the son of a turf mare and a very popular breeding sire that has produced a whole lot of stakes winners. We just haven’t seen Resilience consistently run well and even his best effort – that Wood Memorial win – wouldn’t do it here.

3. Mystik Dan (6-1; McPeek/Hernandez): The surprising Kentucky Derby winner will run here, even though the Triple Crown is not in play. Kenny McPeek has spoken very highly of Mystik Dan and also Kentucky Oaks winner Thorpedo Anna, who he nearly ran in both the Preakness and the Belmont, so it’s been a good year of 3-year-olds for the legendary trainer.

Mystik Dan is more of a stalker, but the 3 post is a good one here to be able to get out and get a good trip towards the front. Brian Hernandez Jr. has had two really nice rides here in the Triple Crown and should have another one here. Will it be enough for a potentially tired horse? The last horse to run the Belmont after winning the Derby and losing the Preakness was Orb in 2013. Orb finished third that year, but remember, it was at 1 ½ miles. Mystik Dan goes a quarter-mile less.

4. The Wine Steward (15-1; Maker/Franco): The Wine Steward is a homegrown colt sired by Vino Rosso, who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic back in 2019. For hitting the board in all six races, the 15-1 price seems a bit long here, but he’s on a three-race losing streak, finishing second each of the last three times, including coming up short against Antiquarian in the Peter Pan Stakes in the Belmont at Aqueduct.

He’s a good horse and a pace-presser and you have to wonder if a big effort is coming. On the other hand, all three place finishes have come at over a mile and this will be the longest run of his young career. All three wins have come at six or fewer furlongs. That explains the price, but it’s fair to wonder if he has the capacity for more.

5. Antiquarian (9-1; Pletcher/Velazquez): The winner of the Peter Pan Stakes is next to the horse that he bested. Following an uninspired effort in the Louisiana Derby, Antiquarian won the 1 ⅛ mile Peter Pan and Todd Pletcher pointed him towards the Belmont Stakes. His maiden win came at 1 1/16 miles and he’s never run a race under a mile, so he’s clearly been bred and prepped for distance.

The son of Woodward Stakes winner Preservationist won in his first New York race, a place where his father won four times in eight tries. That 2019 Woodward Stakes triumph was right here at Saratoga, if you believe in that sort of thing. The trajectory of this colt is also really interesting with a huge leap from the Louisiana Derby to the Peter Pan. It’s entirely possible that Pletcher unlocked something here with rider John Velazquez, who had a bad break at the gate at Fair Grounds.

6. Dornoch (13-1; Gargan/Saez): Dornoch got a little bit of long shot attention at Churchill Downs on May 4, but finished 10th. That was on the heels of finishing fourth in the Blue Grass. To be fair, Dornoch got the rail post at Churchill and was never a factor after getting squeezed out. The Fountain of Youth Stakes winner was viewed as having more potential than this, but he has underwhelmed.

On the other hand, he won a muddy Remsen Stakes in New York back in December and ran his maiden here last July. Ironically, that was a loss to Seize The Grey, but a game effort. It’s hard to see him winning this, but he could be a factor in exotics.

7. Protective (16-1; Pletcher/Gaffalione): Protective has run good, but not great, races in the Wood Memorial and Peter Pan Stakes, finishing third both times. It is extremely rare to see a horse in the Belmont Stakes in search of his maiden win, but that’s what we have here. The son of Medaglia d’Oro will probably win a stakes race sometime this summer against a lesser field, but this is a true long shot.

8. Honor Marie (11-1; Beckman/Geroux): The son of Honor Code and Dame Marie is winless in three tries as a 3-year-old. That maiden win in the Kentucky Jockey Club last November feels like a very long time ago. A second in the Louisiana Derby encouraged a little bit of betting action on May 4 at Churchill, but Honor Marie was never a factor while finishing eighth.

It was not an enjoyable trip with 20 horses in the field, so this could be a more comfortable setting for the horse and rider Florent Geroux. Maybe the extra quarter mile would have helped here with a horse viewed as an extreme closer. The pace may just be too fast to have that chance here.

9. Sierra Leone (2-1; Brown/Prat): The other problem for Honor Marie is that a stronger closer is right next door in Sierra Leone. Had the Kentucky Derby been another eighth of a mile, Sierra Leone would have won by at least a head and probably more over Mystik Dan. Instead, we got one of the most dramatic finishes ever, as Mystik Dan won by a partial nose.

The ride from Tyler Gaffalione drew a ton of consternation, as many felt he should have been disqualified for a really bumpy ride that included impeding the progress of Forever Young. With new rider Flavien Prat and a rocket ship of a horse, I think he’s rightfully favored. A more efficient trip would have won the Derby and the 10-horse field and outside post allows Prat to be as efficient as possible.

10. Mindframe (7-1; Pletcher/Ortiz): According to this price, the morning line oddsmakers got it wrong with Mindframe at the start. He was 7-2 when the post draw was announced, but the son of Constitution and Walk of Stars has been moving down the board throughout the week. That’s not to say that the Pletcher colt isn’t a good runner. Far from it. He’s been thoroughly dominant in wins at seven furlongs and 1 1/16 miles. He’s a pacesetter and has the chance to pull a “Seize The Grey in the Preakness” here.

In two races, Mindframe has won by nearly 21 combined lengths. He’s going to likely lead early. We aren’t sure if he can sustain against stronger challenges and more distance, so this feels like a boom or bust sort of scenario. Constitution only ran once at this distance and it was his last-ever race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where he finished sixth. Take that for what it’s worth.

Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Picks

I definitely like the 9 with the rider change to Prat. Sierra Leone probably should have won the Kentucky Derby and has a great chance to make amends here. Beyond that, I like the 5 Antiquarian, who I admittedly did not like in the Peter Pan, but his trend line with that win looks very promising.

Using a hypothetical $100 bankroll, I’d put together:

$20 Win ($20)

9 Sierra Leone

$10 Win ($20)

5 Antiquarian

10 Mindframe

$5 Key Trifecta ($30)

9 / 3, 5, 10

$3 Key Trifecta ($18)

5 / 3, 9, 10

$2 Key Trifecta ($12)

10 / 3, 5, 9