Belmont 2024 odds to win: Sierra Leone or Mystik Dan? Best bets, sleeper picks, post positions following draw | Sporting News

With Monday’s post-position draw for the 2024 Belmont Stakes complete, excitement has started to mount amongst fans and bettors alike for the 156th running of the third and final Triple Crown event.

Some changes to the field can be expected between now and the famed Saratoga Springs event — remember, Fierceness was already ruled out of this race last weekend, and we saw odds-on favorite Muth scratched days before the Preakness. However, FanDuel Racing has outright winner odds listed for the third leg of the Triple Crown.

MORE BELMONT: Horse profiles | Post positions

Not surprisingly, Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, Preakness winner Seize the Grey, and Derby runner-up Sierra Leone all sit as favorites to win. Those horses will run from the third, first, and ninth posts, respectively. Read on for more context on those favorites and what their post positions mean for their chances to contend.

Let’s take a look at the FanDuel Racing odds for the 2024 Belmont, then discuss the best bets, top value pick, and best sleeper to win.

Belmont Stakes 2024 odds to win

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Racing. Pos = post position.

BUY NOW: Cheapest tickets for 2024 Belmont Stakes on StubHub

Belmont Stakes 2024: Favorites

The clear favorites in the 2024 Belmont Stakes field are Sierra Leone (9-5), Mindframe (7-2), Mystik Dan (5-1), and Seize the Grey (8-1). Resilience (10-1), Honor Marie (12-1), and Antiquarian (12-1) all have short odds as well, but Sierra Leone’s odds imply about a 36-percent winning probability. 

Belmont Stakes 2024: Best bets

Sierra Leone (9-5)

Considering Sierra Leone came so close to winning the soggy Kentucky Derby — and he has plenty of experience winning in wet and muddy conditions — he’s the fitting favorite in Saratoga this weekend. 

Future Hall-of-Fame trainer Chad Brown, a Saratoga native, knows this track well and has accumulated a record amount of Belmont training titles. Brown recently made the switch from jockey Tyler Gaffalione to Flavien Prat, which should fare well for Sierra Leone. This feels like his race to lose this weekend. 

Mystik Dan (5-1)

Mystik Dan won the Kentucky Derby and finished second at the Preakness, and there’s no reason to expect this impressive colt to finish anywhere lower than the top three this weekend in Saratoga.

Mystik Dan has great speed figures, fantastic positional strength, and a tremendous post position out of the third gate. He should be one of the most popular betting picks, and for good reason. 

Belmont Stakes 2024: Top value pick

Seize the Grey (8-1)

Seize the Grey broke his maiden at Saratoga, and his trainer Wayne Lucas has won the Belmont four times. After winning the Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby day and then emerging victorious at the Preakness by 2.25 lengths, he has become a fan favorite.

Seize the Grey has been very busy lately, running three races in five weeks, but nobody can deny the spectacular form in which this three-year-old enters the weekend. He has good pedigree, an awesome speed profile, and surprising stamina for a horse that many consider to be a sprinter. Out of the first post, this feels like a fantastic value pick at 8-1.

Another solid value pick: Resilience (10-1)

Belmont Stakes 2024: Best sleeper

Antiquarian (12-1) 

Antiquarian just seems to get better and better each race, and he seems to be getting overlooked a bit ahead of the Belmont. The winner of the Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct last month, this three-year-old colt enters the weekend in peak form and could easily contest for a win, place, or show. 

A Todd Pletcher-trained horse, Antiquarian has strong tactical speed and underrated stamina. In four starts, he has two wins and one runner-up. Antiquarian might not be worth an outright win bet, but he’s worth strong consideration for exacta or trifecta tickets this weekend. 

Another solid sleeper pick: Protective (20-1)

What is the best post position in horse racing?

Although it’s important to note that this weekend’s event will be held at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, NY this year — not Belmont’s usual venue at Belmont Park, due to a renovation break — it’s still worth noting the past post position success rates for the race and racing in general.

The optimal position in horse racing is dependent on a lot of factors, including the horse, the track, the jockey, the terrain, the weather, and the competition.

Strategies also vary based on the position. Every position from 1-13 has won at least one race at the Belmont Stakes. That said, the No. 1 post has come away with the most wins in history at 24 — great news for Preakness winner Seize the Day. 

Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and his team should be happy, too, as the No. 3 post has won 16 times including last year’s race. The No. 1 post last won in 2018.

Here’s the full count of winners by post positions throughout the history of the Belmont Stakes:

MORE: Who won the 2024 Kentucky Derby?

Belmont Stakes winners by post position

All 13 gates have earned at least one victory at the Belmont Stakes since the race began using starting posts in 1904.

Gate 1 has the most winners and last won in 2018, while Gate 3 was the 2023 winner.

Below is a list of all of the winners at each gate since 1904:

Post 1 — 24 winners

Post 2 — 13 winners

Post 3 — 16 winners

Post 4 — 10 winners

Post 5 — 15 winners

Post 6 — 9 winners

Post 7 — 14 winners

Post 8 — 7 winners

Post 9 — 4 winners

Post 10 — 1 winner

Post 11 — 3 winners

Post 12 — 1 winner

Post 13 — 1 winner