Bell: For Gondek no Comeback Kid rebound after water crisis — pollster

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We’re coming down the homestretch. Soon the water will flow freely in Calgary.

Mayor Jyoti Gondek has taken centre stage and her communication has gone from bad to better.

Her message is clearer and more upbeat than two weeks ago when the doo-doo hit the fan and the city’s most important water pipe ruptured.

These days the mayor is even giving Calgarians lots of gold stars for being so well-behaved in using the water the city has available.

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Andrew Enns is from the renowned Leger firm of nose-counters.

Enns knows how to crunch numbers and has worked in government, including in Ottawa. He’s been among the political sorts.

Now, in Calgary, there’s a question already being asked.

Will Gondek get a bump or even a jump in the polls after this water crisis story is put to bed?

I decide to ask Enns his thoughts.

As he mentions, a crisis of any sort gives a chance for an unpopular politician to turn the page and have at least a shot at re-election.

“I think they smell the opportunity here to maybe change the trajectory a little bit,” says Enns, talking about a Leger poll written about by Postmedia earlier this month, showing Gondek with pretty awful approval numbers.

“I don’t blame them because those numbers weren’t good and what you need in those situations is a channel-changer.

“This obviously is something.”

Yes, the Leger poll showed far more people thought the city was on the wrong track than those who thought the city was moving in the right direction.

Men, women, old and young agreed.

Affordability was big. So were property taxes. So was the condition of infrastructure.

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So what does Enns think of Gondek getting a bump in the polls after taking main stage during this water yarn?

“You might see a little bit of a bump but I don’t think it’s the kind of bump where you’d be writing The Comeback Kid,” speculates the pollster.

He says over time Gondek might get a bump if she can stop with the stories that make people angry.

“She seemed to have found a number that she kind of championed that did nothing but make people angry.

“If she can turn that down in a couple months you might see a little bit of a bump but it’s a mug’s game on that. There’s just so many other things going on.”

Enns does say the mayor could double down on actions getting under the skin of most Calgarians.

Then the number-cruncher says this water mess is not like some force from outside invading Calgary, like the 2013 flood.

“I don’t think this is the kind of crisis that is super-clean” where the city “has rallied in the face of insurmountable odds.”

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“This is like, you know, something they’re responsible for, screwed up, and they managed to get it under control.”

This is a core service of the city “and it failed catastrophically.”

“This is infrastructure that failed.”

Then there is this…

“This isn’t a great one for her to say: Remember when I stepped up and I led the city.”

The response?

“Yeah, I remember that. That’s when our water system failed that you’re supposed to be in charge of.

“How do we not know these things could happen? Are we that vulnerable?”

Enns says, based on his experience working in politics, the mayor seen to be taking charge in the last few days is very calculated.

“She has to somehow represent herself to a lot of folks.

“I’m pretty sure these aren’t decisions just taken by the mayor waking up and saying: Set up a press conference. I’m out there.

“There’s a conversation. Hey, you know what, we’re not in a good place and, quite frankly, by going out in front of a bad issue this doesn’t necessarily make things any worse for us because we’re pretty bad right now and there’s a chance we could actually get into the grill of some people in a positive way.

“That to me was the strategic play, if there is one.”

There is a little wrinkle in the analysis.

This water crisis, as it is called, will likely not cause more people to think Calgary is headed the right way and fewer to think the city is on the wrong track.

In fact…

“Regardless of how you feel the mayor performed, this episode probably will not change the perception of things going in the right direction,” says Enns.

“In fact, it may actually push the wrong track number a little bit higher because: What happened? How can this happen to Calgary?”

rbell@postmedia.com

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