Analysis | The biggest remaining drama in the NBA Finals: Who will be named MVP?

As the Boston Celtics eye a possible sweep of the Dallas Mavericks in Game 4 of this year’s Finals at American Airlines Center on Friday, their balanced offense and cohesive defense have fueled the richest Finals MVP debate in years. This is hardly a coincidence: the longer a series goes, the easier it is to tell which player is having the greatest impact. What’s more, the past eight NBA Finals MVPs had the benefit of having previously won NBA MVP or Finals MVP. None of Boston’s top candidates has one of those stamps of approval to boost his case.

If Kristaps Porzingis hadn’t suffered a left ankle injury in Game 2 that caused him to miss Game 3 and put his status in question for Game 4, he would have probably figured into this conversation as well given his strong two-way play. As it stands, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday all deserve serious consideration from media voters if Boston captures its long-awaited 18th championship.

Here is the case for each of those players:

Tatum (21.7 points per game, 8.7 rebounds per game, 7.3 assists per game in the Finals) is a conventional candidate: He is the Celtics’ most decorated and celebrated star, and he has served as their main initiator against the Mavericks. The five-time all-star leads Boston in usage rate, shot attempts and assists, and he broke out of an extended shooting slump with a team-high 31 points in a Game 3 win.

Celtics Coach Joe Mazzulla effusively praised Tatum’s willingness to trust the pass in Game 2 — “Jayson makes greatness look easy” — and the 26-year-old forward has made much better decisions as a distributor than he did during a 2022 Finals loss to the Warriors. Without Tatum’s committed ball movement, Boston’s offense easily could have stalled out in Game 2 and Game 3.

Of course, there’s also the glaring matter of Tatum’s inefficiency to consider: He is shooting just 35.9 percent from the field and 29.6 percent on three-pointers in the Finals. Both figures are far below his career playoff numbers and the typical Finals MVP standard. In fact, his 36.4 percent shooting in Finals games dating back to 2022 ranks fifth worst among all players with at least 100 shot attempts during the NBA’s three-point era.

Tatum’s steady defense and ability to log heavy minutes gets overlooked when his jumper isn’t falling, but a big scoring performance to close out his first title run would make it easier for voters to reward his total body of work. If he wins Finals MVP, it would be akin to Durant in 2017 — a crowning achievement to recognize a perennial star’s championship breakthrough.

During a thoroughly impressive playoff run, Brown (24.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 5.7 apg in the Finals) has shed his second-billing treatment and set up a “1A and 1B” dynamic with Tatum. The 27-year-old forward claimed Eastern Conference finals MVP honors in a sweep of the Indiana Pacers, and he hasn’t skipped a beat against the Mavericks. Through three games, he has been Boston’s leading scorer and most deserving Finals MVP candidate.

When Boston has needed big late-game shots, Brown has sought out scoring opportunities and delivered. He helped close out Game 1 after Porzingis’s excellent first half, and he drilled a crucial midrange jumper in Game 3 to stave off Dallas’s rally from 21 points down in the fourth quarter. Though he has struggled to find his outside shooting touch, Brown has excelled attacking the basket all series and has thrown down emphatic dunks over and through the Mavericks’ interior defenders.

Mavericks Coach Jason Kidd made waves after Game 1 by declaring that Brown, not Tatum, was Boston’s “best player.” That contrarian opinion was largely rooted in Brown’s defense on Mavericks star Luka Doncic, who has struggled with turnovers throughout the series and has consistently been less effective late in games. Brown’s physical and opportunistic defense has helped keep Doncic in check and led to transition scoring chances.

Brown overtook Tatum as the betting favorite for Finals MVP after Game 3, probably because he scored 24 of his 30 points in the second half and hit arguably the shot of the night with just over a minute remaining. If Brown remains Boston’s leading scorer and continues to frustrate Doncic, he would be a Finals MVP in the mold of Leonard with the Toronto Raptors in 2019: A big, physical wing who made his presence felt on both ends and wouldn’t be denied.

Boston’s “Two Jays” get the lion’s share of the attention, but their third jay — Holiday — has been just as important to its Finals success. The 34-year-old guard was acquired last offseason to fill the hole created when backcourt stopper Marcus Smart was traded in the deal that landed Porzingis. Smart cultivated a reputation for making “winning plays” in Boston, and Holiday has carried that mantle to great effect against Dallas.

Though Holiday (15.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 4.3 apg) has deferred credit to Tatum and Brown and called himself a “utility guy,” his fingerprints have been all over this 3-0 series lead. In Game 1, he helped slow a Dallas rally by taking over defensive responsibilities against Doncic. In Game 2, he shot 11 for 14 from the field and emerged as Tatum’s chief passing target. In a quieter Game 3 showing, he still made several big offensive rebounds and set up a key Derrick White three-pointer with a great pass in crunchtime.

Holiday’s defensive impact has also been significant. The Mavericks have failed to crack 100 points in three straight games, and Holiday’s disruptive presence has impacted their ball movement and flow. Doncic and Kyrie Irving have been reduced to a two-man show, and both guards have looked less comfortable against the Celtics than they did earlier in the playoffs. This is hardly a new trend for Holiday, whose perimeter defense was crucial to the Milwaukee Bucks’ 2021 championship.

There are precedents for defense-first, complementary scorers such as Holiday to win Finals MVP: Leonard with the 2014 San Antonio Spurs and Andre Iguodala with the 2015 Warriors. Holiday probably won’t land the Bill Russell Trophy, but the Celtics’ trade to acquire him last October could well be remembered as the move that finally put them over the hump after years of postseason stumbles.