It’s summer in Southern California, and for horseplayers, that means it’s time for Del Mar. The annual Del Mar summer Thoroughbred meet opens July 20 and will usher in California’s most eagerly anticipated season of horse racing.
The 2024 Del Mar summer meet will be conducted mainly on a four-days-a-week basis, Thursdays through Sundays plus Labor Day for eight weeks ending Sunday, Sept. 8.
The 85th Del Mar summer season will encompass 31 race days, with total purse distribution at the meet expected to be $26.6 million. Del Mar’s stakes program alone will host 39 stakes races with purses worth $7,875,000 and will include six grade 1s, topped the meet’s signature race, the $1 million FanDuel Racing Pacific Classic (G1) Aug. 31. The Pacific Classic will serve as a course and distance prep race for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), which will be contested at Del Mar this fall.
Six stakes at the meet will be Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” qualifying races, including the Pacific Classic, the Del Mar Handicap presented by the Japan Racing Association (G2T) (Turf division), the Green Flash Handicap (G3T) (Turf Sprint), the Bing Crosby Stakes (G1) (Sprint division), the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (G1) (Distaff division), and the Pat O’Brien Stakes (G2) (Dirt Mile division).
The quality of racing is top-notch, but for horseplayers, Del Mar is about much more than just important stakes. The race meet will offer handicappers big day-to-day competitive fields, promising 2-year-olds, and the return of turf racing that has been absent in Southern California since the end of Santa Anita Park meet in mid-June.
Read on for some handicapping advice and tips to help you win “Where the Turf Meets the Surf” at old Del Mar.
Del Mar Main Track Trends
Del Mar’s main track winning profile can be speed-favoring at times, and that was the case at Del Mar’s two meets in 2023. In dirt sprints, speed horses racing on the pace or within a length of the lead accounted for wins in 47% of all dirt sprint winners (71 wins in 152) in 2023. Nearly equally as effective were pressers and stalkers racing between 1-4 lengths off the early lead, who won most of the races not won by speed horses (68 winners of the 152 races for 45%). Closers, defined as horses coming from four or more lengths off the early pace, almost never won Del Mar dirt sprints in 2023. Late runners won just 13 of the 152 races for 9%. The bias against closers existed at all sprint distances.
In dirt route races, the vast majority of the 63 races Del Mar ran in 2023 were run at one mile (57 races), with only six longer dirt routes being run last year. Those races were stakes, meaning that all the overnight dirt route races at the meet found in the condition book are at one mile.
Del Mar dirt miles played much more fairly in 2023 than the sprints, with closers coming from more than four lengths off the pace having a much better chance. Speed horses won 21 of the 57 miles (36%), and stalkers won 23 of the mile races (40%), while closers were able to win 14 of the 57 Del Mar dirt miles in 2023, accounting for 24%.
Overall, all post positions, including the outside posts, were fair in Del Mar routes in 2023. However, a horse’s running style did make a difference relative to its chances from various post draws. For example, speed horses racing on or close to the pace have their best chances from the inside post draws 1-3, while stalkers clearly benefitted from middle posts 4-6. Closers did terribly from the inside three post positions, winning a total of just two of the 57 dirt miles run in 2023. A speed horse’s chances get worse the farther outside they go as they are forced to “send” from outside posts in order to avoid going wide and losing ground on the first turn. Speed horses drawn in posts 7 and wider won only four dirt miles in 2023.
Del Mar Turf Route Tips
Del Mar runs some of the country’s best summer grass racing. In the current era of Del Mar turf racing, since its new turf course was installed prior to hosting the Breeders’ Cup in the fall of 2017, the vast majority of Del Mar’s turf routes have been run at one mile or 1 1/16 miles. A handful of races each summer also are contested at 1 1/8 miles and 1 3/8 miles on the turf. Turf routes at Del Mar in 2023 had a terrific average field size of 9.33 runners.
Turf racing at Del Mar
Del Mar’s turf course plays extremely fair in terms of post positions in one-mile races, which is by far the most common turf-route distance (82 races run in 2023). The outside posts are very much more problematic at 1 1/16 miles (26 races in 2023) and 1 1/8 miles (eight races in 2023) on the turf, however, where the wins drop off sharply outside of post-position 6. Only one horse was able to win a 1 1/16-mile turf race from posts 7 and outward in Del Mar’s two meets in 2023, and only one outside horse won at 1 1/8 miles.
In terms of running style preferences in turf routes, stalkers and closers do the best and speed horses on or close to the pace are at a big disadvantage. In 122 total turf routes run at Del Mar in 2023, only 23 races (19% of the races) were won by speed horses. Stalkers won 47 times (39% of the races) and closers won 52 times (43% of the races). The figures for turf closers at Del Mar are much better than at Santa Anita. Therefore, a good betting angle early in the Del Mar meet is to upgrade turf route closers coming in off losses in recent starts at Santa Anita.
Del Mar Turf Sprint Trends
Del Mar’s turf sprint races are all run at the distance of five furlongs and Del Mar ran 62 of these races in its summer and fall meets in 2023 (roughly one turf sprint per day). Santa Anita turf sprint form, which includes races on the downhill course and mostly consists of longer turf sprints, may not translate well to Del Mar, so expect plenty of upsets.
For Del Mar turf sprint handicappers, running style trends are more important than post-position trends in terms of being able to sort out the horses with the best chances to win. Being that these Del Mar turf sprints are run at five furlongs, it shouldn’t be a surprise that it pays to have early speed. However, while speed is beneficial in these races, it is not essential to success and plenty of winners come from off the pace. In 2023, winners of 28 of the 62 turf sprints raced on or close to the pace to account for 45% of the wins, followed by 23 stalking winners (37%). You don’t want to bet on a horse likely to fall too far back, however, because closers from four or more lengths out of it won only 11 of the 62 races accounting for 18% of the races. In other words, it’s OK to come from a little bit off the pace in these races, but preferably not too far back.
In terms of post positions, Del Mar’s turf sprints have an average field size of 8.54 horses and there has been very little favoritism at recent meets in terms of post positions. Middle posts did better in 2022 and inside posts did better in 2023, but in general all the post positions in these races offer fair chances to win.
Del Mar’s Top Jockeys
The Del Mar jockey colony is strong at the top and is led by Juan Hernandez, who is the defending Del Mar summer meet leading rider from 2023 with 39 winners from 174 mounts for a 22% win percentage. Hernandez usually rides first call for trainer Bob Baffert and will get many of his best mounts during the season from that high-percentage barn.
Second in the 2023 summer jockey win standings was up-and-coming star Antonio Fresu, who scored 31 wins from 173 mounts for 18%. The rest of the top 5 was made up of Umberto Rispoli, who had 25 wins from 125 mounts for 21%, Hector Berrios, who had 24 winners from 174 mounts for 14%, and Edwin Maldonado, who had 20 wins from 162 mounts for 12%. Other jockeys of note to watch for include veteran Mike Smith, who rides selectively but still racked up 14 winners at the 2023 summer meet for a 20% clip. Also, Flavien Prat, who can be expected in town for some stakes days and during the last week of the meet after Labor Day, won eight times from just 24 mounts in 2023 for a robust 33% win percentage.
Del Mar’s Top Trainers
Phil D’Amato edged Bob Baffert by one winner to take the 2023 summer training title at Del Mar. D’Amato won 21 races from 134 starters (16%), while Baffert scored 20 wins from just 63 starters for a much higher win percentage of 32%. The other trainer in the mix to compete for the Del Mar summer training title is Doug O’Neill, who missed the title by just two wins at the 2023 summer meet when he won 19 times. The thing O’Neill has going in this favor is that he will probably start more runners at the meet than any other trainer after having started 144 horses at the 2023 summer meet with a 13% win percentage.
In terms of win percentage, no trainer will be able to compete with Baffert at the meet, but for bettors, Baffert’s horses are sent off at low odds. Some other trainers you may want to rely on for better profits this season, based on their performances at the 2023 summer meet, include Peter Eurton, who won 16 races from 63 starters in summer 2023 for 25%, and Richard Mandella, who won nine races from 39 starters at the meet for 23%.
Enjoy the 2024 SoCal summer racing season, where the turf meets the surf at Del Mar. Best of luck!
 "BCCI want Test specialists to play domestic cricket; Rohit, Virat, Bumrah to be exceptions")
