Churchill: 5 first-crop sires are represented in Debutatne

Sunday’s $200,000 listed Debutante Stakes
over Churchill Downs’ main track attracted seven 2-year-old fillies.

The last two winners of the Debutante, Brightwork (2023) and
Wonder Wheel (2022), evolved into Grade 1 stakes winners. Wonder Wheel earned
championship honors after capturing the Alcibiades and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Fillies.

This year, seven aspiring stars face the starter in the
Debutante Stakes. Six of the seven are last-out maiden winners.

Freshmen sires Vekoma,
Thousand Words, Instilled Regard, Authentic and Honor A. P.  are represented in the Debutante, and a
victorious daughter could send one of them to the top of the first-crop sire
list.

The tools used to handicap
2-year-old dirt sprint stakes include pedigree; mental ability, such as whether the entrant is focused, switches leads, targets and passes horses; speed ratings and
competition quality; post-race breezes and trainer stats.

Carded as race 4 of 11 on Sunday, the Debutante post time is
2:14 p.m. EDT.

Let’s look at the suspects most likely to hit the board.

5. Adeera, Authentic
– Majestic Presence, by Majestic Warrior, 5-2

In her May 31 debut, Adeera dueled until the top of the Churchill stretch then
gradually put away her tired rival to win by 3 3/4 lengths, getting 5 1/2 furlongs
in 1:04.95. She athletically cut the corner and was professional down the
stretch. Adeera earned an 81 speed rating for her efforts, but four rivals
returned and none hit the board in their next start.

Adeera logged a pair of pre-race five-furlong works in the 101
to 102 range. She’s the second and more well-regarded of Asmussen’s Debutante
fillies.

Pedigree notes: A lot is expected of this $300,000
Keeneland September yearling.

By horse of the year and no. 11 First Crop sire Authentic,
Adeera is a 3/4 sister to Santa Anita Handicap (G1) hero Newgate and Grade 2-winning
sprinter Denim and Pearls. Both siblings are by Authentic’s sire Into Mischief.

6. Vodka With a
Twist, Thousand Words – Bourbon and a Kiss, by Sky
Mesa, 3-1

Vodka With a Twist showed noticeable improvement in her
second start, beating a nice field of seven by a length over a sloppy Churchill
track. She toyed with them early then waited slightly for a rival to get
closer before picking it up to win by a measured length. Three rivals won and
two placed in their next start.

Vodka With a Twist earned a 90 speed rating and has an 80
late-pace figure. She’s fired two bullets, including a pre-race five furlongs in
1:00.60.

Phil D’Amato wins with 17 percent of 2-year-olds making their first
start for the barn.

Pedigree notes: Vodka With a Twist’s immediate family
is light on black type. 

By Los Alamitos Futurity hero and no. 4 first-crop sire Thousand
Words, Vodka With a Twist looks to the third generation of her distaff line for
notable black type. Her third dam is Humana Distaff (G1) heroine Mayo on the
Side, one of the few mares to beat 3-time champ Azeri.

4. So There She
Was, Munnings – Risk Premium, by Take Charge Indy, 7-2

So There She Was chased the early speed in her Santa Anita
debut as they zipped 21.64 in the first quarter and
45.69 in the second. So There She Was just galloped down the stretch,
passing exhausted rivals for second best. She ran out of real estate, beaten by
2 3/4 lengths, and earned an 85 speed rating. Her 92 late-pace figure is the
highest in the field.

So There She Was posted a pre-race, four-furlong gate work in 47.60 seconds at Santa Anita
in company with Bashford Manor Stakes entrant Ivan the Great. They broke as
a team, then So There She Was settled a
half-length back on the outside. She was given her head and drew clear around
the turn by about a half-length. She outworked the same rival in their previous
breeze.

Eighteen percent of Doug O’Neill’s 2-year-old
maidens who finished in the money in their last start graduate in their next
outing.

Pedigree notes: Munnings’s daughter is out of an
unraced half-sister to Grade 2 winning sprinter Iliad and to the veteran
handicap horse Melmich, a multiple graded winner who competed from 1 1/16 miles
to 1 3/4 miles.

2. Daisy Duke, Classic Empire – Dixie Strike, by Dixie Union, 5-1

Daisy Duke improved to capture her second start by 1 3/4 lengths over a fast Churchill track, getting five furlongs in 59.78 seconds with a 12.89
final furlong.

She broke in the top half of the nine-horse field but
quickly dropped back to seventh. The Mark Casse trainee made a sustained seven-wide
drive and was professional down the stretch, keeping to her lane and passing
others without issue. Daisy Duke previously finished fourth at this same level.
Her speed rating decreased by two points to 69.

Three rivals returned to hit the board in their next start.
Daisy Duke posted a pre-race five-furlong move in 1:00.20.

Mark Casse wins with 11 percent of his 2-year-old last-out maiden winners.
Casse won the 2022 Debutante with Wonder Wheel.

Pedigree notes: Daisy Duke has a miler pedigree and
stakes winners in the first generation of her distaff line.

Classic Empire won the 2016 Bashford Manor Stakes on his way
to earning that year’s 2-year-old honors. Daisy Duke’s half-sister Forever
Dixie is a stakes winner and Grade 3-placed in Canada. Their dam won and placed
from 6 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/4 furlongs, is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1 placed.

3. Fortuna Mia, Vekoma
– Windy Lane, by Cairo Prince, 12-1

Fortuna Mia bested six rivals by four lengths in a 4 1/2-furlong
event at Horseshoe Indianapolis. She dueled the entire way and put away her
rival in the stretch.

Fortuna Mia ducked toward the rail once in the clear and
didn’t switch leads until three strides from the wire. She stopped the clock in 53.60 seconds, earning a 55 speed rating, the lowest in the Debutante field. None of
her rivals hit the board in their last start.

Fortuna Mia posted a pre-race, four-furlong move in 47.80 seconds, and
trainer Rey Hernandez wins with 14 percent of his 2-year-old last-out maiden winners.
But he is 0-for-3 with shippers to Churchill.

Pedigree notes: Fortuna Mia is one of nine winners by
Grade 1-winning miler and no. 2 first-crop sire Vekoma. She has a classy female
family.

Her dam is half to Grade 2 winning sprinter Fioretti and a
restricted turf sprinter. The extended family includes Grade 1 heroines Fault, Alcibiades
(G1) winner JuJu’s Map, who was second in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Fillies, and Del Mar Debutante (G1) Bast, third in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile Fillies.

1. Glee, Honor A. P.
– Red Tabby, by Bluegrass Cat, 4-1

Glee zipped 4 1/2 furlongs over the sloppy Lone Star surface
in 52.58 seconds, less than two seconds off the 2009 track record, while beating the
boys. Glee broke sharply and dueled through mid-stretch. She was a little
green, wanting to lean in, but she pulled clear under a hand ride to win by 5 1/2 lengths and earned a 81 Brisnet speed rating.

Glee bested two next-out winners. She recorded a trio of
works, cumulating with a five-furlong 1:00.80 work at Ellis Park.

A 5-time winner of the Debutante, Steve
Asmussen wins with 28 percent of his 2-year-old last-out maiden winners, according to Race
Lens.

Pedigree notes: Glee is one of three winners for her
sire, a Santa Anita Derby (G1) hero and no. 15 first-crop sire. Glee’s
half-brother Evolve is a stakes-placed sprinter, and their unraced dam is half
to stakes-winning turf miler Malibu Way.

7. La Marinera, Instilled
Regard – Curlin Supreme, by Curlin, 12-1

The most experienced Debutante filly,  La Marinera got the job done in her third
start, besting nine others at five furlongs over a sloppy Churchill strip. She
pressed the early pace, was in front by the eighth pole and won under a hand
ride, stopping the clock in 59.97 seconds, with a slow 13.52 final furlong.

One rival returned to win, and five others were in the
money in their next start.

Kelly Fernandez is 0-for-2 with last-out maiden winners.

Pedigree notes: La Marinera will appreciate distance and
may handle multiple surfaces, especially turf.

By no. 10 first-crop sire Instilled Regard, a Grade 1-winning turf
router and Grade 3 winner on dirt, La Marinera could have a future on dirt or
turf from sprints to routes. Her second dam Tin Top Cat is a multiple-stakes
winning sprinter, and there’s minor class scattered through other generations.

Analysis

In the last 12 years, only one Debutante heroine didn’t win their previous start, and all except one gained ground or extended their lead in their previous
start.

Pacesetters and pressers rule the Debutante, and nine
favorites finished first or second.

Vodka With a Twist fired two bullets and was
professional in her last start. She owns the highest speed rating and enters
for a high percentage trainer.

Adeera has the classiest pedigree in the field, but
none of her rivals returned to win. Still, Steve Asmussen must be respected,
and Adeera won for fun.

So There She Was ships from California, chased a hot
early pace and was running at the end. She can do the same here.

Glee is worth a long-shot look. Don’t toss runners
from Lone Star. Two traveled from Texas to win the Debutante in 2013 and 2014, and both fillies became multiple stakes winners.

Selections

6. Vodka With a Twist (3-1)
5. Adeera (5-2)
4. So There She Was (7-2)
1. Glee (4-1)