Head to Head: Baffert vs others in Los Alamitos Derby

Laurie

Ashley

1. Tapalo (7-5)

Tapalo has one running style. Go to the front and stay there as long as he can. He managed to hold on for second place in the 1 1/8-mile El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate but hasn’t won beyond seven furlongs. Pass.

Trained by John Sadler, Tapalo has plenty of early speed but has not shown that he can carry that speed in a route race. He finished second in the El Camino Real Derby with no excuses. He sat off a reasonable pace, had a clear lead in the stretch and was run down by the winner. In the Santa Anita Derby (G1), the colt set a quick pace and then came up empty in the stretch. Tapalo enters off a dominant win in the seven-furlong Lazaro Barrera Stakes. He led gate to wire, spurting clear by seven lengths, and earned a career- and field-best 112 Equibase speed figure. Since he’s faded in both prior attempts at 1 1/8 miles, look for him to set the pace and maybe hold on for a minor placing. Use underneath.

2. Cornell (2-1)

Cornell was unsettled in the gate in the Affirmed Stakes, his first start since January. He hugged the rail for most of the trip while tailgating the pace, yet dropped way back and looked hopelessly beaten as they picked it up around the far turn. Into Mischief’s son gradually made up some ground around the turn to pass tired horses in a workmanlike performance. He earned an 85 Brisnet rating and should improve off the race. Bob Baffert gave Cornell a sharp pre-race 59.2 five-furlong breeze in company with Arabian Lion. Cornell was the better of the pair and didn’t let Arabian Lion by. Meanwhile, Arabian Lion was pushed and tapped to no avail. Win contender.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Cornell graduated at third asking. The field for his debut race was weak. It produced only one eventual winner and one runner who became stakes-placed. His second race produced Imagination, winner of the San Felipe (G2) and runner-up by a neck in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). None in his maiden-breaking race have hit the board in subsequent starts. Last out, Cornell was third, beaten by 8 3/4 lengths, by undefeated stablemate Parenting. Cornell will get his fifth jockey in as many starts when Baffert gives the leg up to Edwin Maldonado. It’s hard to discount a Baffert runner, but this one does not excite me. Use underneath.

3. Wynstock (3-1)

Wynstock returns to the scene of his greatest triumph. The Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) hero had his Kentucky Derby dreams derailed in the Southwest (G3) and Santa Anita Derby (G1), and lately, Baffert tried Wynstock on turf, a failed experiment. By Solomoni out of a Flatter mare who is a half to Oklahoma Derby (G3) victor Untrapped, Wynstock might handle the extra distance if the pace isn’t too fast. Exotics.

Also trained by Bob Baffert, I really liked Wynstock earlier in the year off his determined victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) to close out his juvenile campaign. But he then proceeded to lose his next three starts by a combined 50 3/4 lengths. After failing miserably in two Kentucky Derby preps, Baffert tried this one on turf last out, but whatever he was hoping to accomplish clearly did not come to fruition. This colt’s career best race came on this very track, so maybe coming back to Los Alamitos will do the trick. Kyle Frey retains the mount. Contender.

4. Kamaina Cruiser (15-1)

Kamaina Cruiser found a mile on Tapeta the right distance when he graduated in his third start. His sire Catalina Cruiser has two starters at 1 1/8 miles, both on dirt, and both hit the board. Kamaina Cruiser’s dam is by Curlin, and the colt’s second dam Sweet Lips is multiple stakes placed at 1 1/8 miles. As a side note, Sweet Lips is a half to Nehro, who was second in the 2011 Kentucky Derby. The O.J. Jauregui trainee earned a career-best 83 speed rating in his last start, and he’s trying several new things simultaneously: shipping, longer distance, stepping up in class and returning to dirt. He could close for a piece at long odds if he doesn’t regress. Exotics.

Trained by O.J. Jauregui, Kamaina Cruiser broke his maiden last out, his third career start. He debuted on the dirt in a maiden claimer at Del Mar and finished fifth. Only two from that race went on to become winners. The colt made his next two starts on Golden Gate’s tapeta surface. He was fourth in his second start, and the winner of that race hit the board in his next two starts. Kamaina Cruiser won his third and most recent start, and the two who have started since failed to hit the board. Jauregui is 11 percent with a 42 percent in-the-money rate in graded stakes during the last five years, according to Race Lens. He’s 16 percent with a 50 percent in-the-money rate with runners switching from Tapeta to dirt in that same time frame. The colt’s Equibase speed figures have climbed with each start, going from a 57 to a 70 to a 96 last out. Abel Cedillo gets the mount for the first time. Pass.

5. Curlin’s Kaos (9-2)

Curlin’s Kaos is 0-for-4 on dirt. His two victories were as a turf miler. He’s hit the board in dirt sprints against state-bred types but is up against it here. Pass.

Trained by Antonio Garcia, Curlin’s Kaos has flip-flopped between turf and dirt his entire career, but as Laurie pointed out, his only two career victories came on the turf. The gelding is coming in off a seventh-place finish in the Snow Chief Stakes, missing it all by 1 1/2 lengths in a blanket finish. Garcia is just 13 percent with a 58 percent in-the-money clip with runners switching from turf to dirt over the last year, and he’s never saddled a graded-stakes winner, though he came close with Low Expectations when that one finished second in last year’s Sunland Derby (G3). Curlin’s Kaos does have a second-place finish over this course, so maybe he could make a little noise here. Mario Gutierrez takes over from Diego Herrera. Pass.

                Laurie

           Ashley

2. Cornell (2-1)

3. Wynstock (3-1)

3. Wynstock (3-1)

2. Cornell (2-1)

4. Kamaina Cruiser (15-1)

1. Tapalo (7-5)